Markets Week Ahead: GBP/USD, Brexit, EUR/USD, ECB, Dow Jones, Vaccine Doses
Equities in the US, Europe and Asia Pacific region aimed mostly higher this past week as the world inched closer towards the first doses of a coronavirus vaccine. Still, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Investors welcomed progress from the US towards a $908b Covid relief package and an omnibus bill to avoid a government shutdown.
The haven-linked US Dollar largely underperformed, dipping to beyond 2-year lows alongside the anti-risk Japanese Yen. The Euro soared as the British Pound wobbled on ongoing Brexit headlines. Gold prices climbed as crude oil reaped the benefits of an OPEC+ agreement to begin tapering cuts starting in January by a smaller-than-anticipated amount.
The US and UK could begin distributing a vaccine, with the former looking to authorization from the FDA on Thursday. For the British Pound, Brexit talks could conclude this week after negotiations paused, opening the door to volatility if things take a turn for the worse. The Euro is eyeing the ECB rate decision where the central bank may increase bond-buying operations.
EUR/USD is also facing the deadline for an EU (US$)2.2 trillion stimulus deal. Sentiment/consumer confidence data will cross the wires from the Eurozone, Germany, Australia and the US in the week ahead. Rising Covid cases in the latter have been prompting local officials to tighten lockdowns in parts of the country. Might fading confidence derail risk appetite?
After the recent strength of EUR/USD, a period of consolidation is likely ahead of two critical meetings: of the European Central Bank and the European Council.
The Australian Dollar may dismiss escalating trade tensions with China and continue moving higher as the easing of coronavirus restrictions accelerates the nation’s economic recovery.
The S&P 500 index exhibited a strong negative correlation with the US Dollar over the past 12 months. A potential rebound in the US Dollar may derail stock markets’ upward trajectory.
The US dollar is unloved, oversold and at lows last seen over 30-months ago. At the moment there seems to be very little reason to buy the greenback
Gold prices in USD-terms have rallied sharply this week, but gold’s gains lagged elsewhere. Thanks in part to US stimulus talks, US Dollar weakness is masking gold’s own bearish underlying fundamentals.
GBP/USD breaks to fresh YTD highs to hit 1.35 as markets price in a Brexit. Markets remain on tenterhooks.
USD/MXN stalls above key support as Bearish Pressure Seems to Recoil Slightly
Gold prices snapped a three-week losing streak off multi-month lows- a bear market trap or reversal? The technical levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart.
US Dollar bears were able to break free while pushing the USD to fresh two-year-lows. But can they maintain?
US equity markets continue to press into uncharted territory while European indices have begun a period of consolidation. Regardless, the Dow Jones, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 will each have to negotiate important technical levels ahead.
Cable is flirting with a potentially massive breakout as the 13500 level comes under siege; the week ahead could be a defining one.
The Japanese Yen finds itself near key technical levels as recent weakness in the have-linked US Dollar continued to push USD/JPY lower. Meanwhile, GBP/JPY's current posture looks poised for short-term weakness within a long-term symmetrical triangle.
US DOLLAR WEEKLY PERFORMANCE AGAINST CURRENCIES AND GOLD
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