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Markets Week Ahead: GBP/USD, Brexit, EUR/USD, ECB, Dow Jones, Vaccine Doses

Markets Week Ahead: GBP/USD, Brexit, EUR/USD, ECB, Dow Jones, Vaccine Doses

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Equities in the US, Europe and Asia Pacific region aimed mostly higher this past week as the world inched closer towards the first doses of a coronavirus vaccine. Still, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Investors welcomed progress from the US towards a $908b Covid relief package and an omnibus bill to avoid a government shutdown.

The haven-linked US Dollar largely underperformed, dipping to beyond 2-year lows alongside the anti-risk Japanese Yen. The Euro soared as the British Pound wobbled on ongoing Brexit headlines. Gold prices climbed as crude oil reaped the benefits of an OPEC+ agreement to begin tapering cuts starting in January by a smaller-than-anticipated amount.

The US and UK could begin distributing a vaccine, with the former looking to authorization from the FDA on Thursday. For the British Pound, Brexit talks could conclude this week after negotiations paused, opening the door to volatility if things take a turn for the worse. The Euro is eyeing the ECB rate decision where the central bank may increase bond-buying operations.

EUR/USD is also facing the deadline for an EU (US$)2.2 trillion stimulus deal. Sentiment/consumer confidence data will cross the wires from the Eurozone, Germany, Australia and the US in the week ahead. Rising Covid cases in the latter have been prompting local officials to tighten lockdowns in parts of the country. Might fading confidence derail risk appetite?

Fundamental Forecasts:

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Consolidation Due as ECB and EU Leaders Meet

After the recent strength of EUR/USD, a period of consolidation is likely ahead of two critical meetings: of the European Central Bank and the European Council.

Australian Dollar May Extend Gains Despite Escalating China Trade Tensions

The Australian Dollar may dismiss escalating trade tensions with China and continue moving higher as the easing of coronavirus restrictions accelerates the nation’s economic recovery.

S&P 500 May Be Vulnerable To a Pullback if the US Dollar Rebounds

The S&P 500 index exhibited a strong negative correlation with the US Dollar over the past 12 months. A potential rebound in the US Dollar may derail stock markets’ upward trajectory.

US Dollar Weekly Outlook: In One Word - Frail

The US dollar is unloved, oversold and at lows last seen over 30-months ago. At the moment there seems to be very little reason to buy the greenback

Weekly Fundamental Gold Price Forecast: Can You Trust The Rebound in XAU/USD?

Gold prices in USD-terms have rallied sharply this week, but gold’s gains lagged elsewhere. Thanks in part to US stimulus talks, US Dollar weakness is masking gold’s own bearish underlying fundamentals.

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Is a Brexit Breakthrough Imminent?

GBP/USD breaks to fresh YTD highs to hit 1.35 as markets price in a Brexit. Markets remain on tenterhooks.

USD/MXN Forecast: Bearish Case is Weakening as Peso Strength Might Become an Issue

USD/MXN stalls above key support as Bearish Pressure Seems to Recoil Slightly

Technical Forecasts:

Gold Price Forecast: Gold Bear Market Rally or Reversal?

Gold prices snapped a three-week losing streak off multi-month lows- a bear market trap or reversal? The technical levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart.

US Dollar Technical Forecast: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD

US Dollar bears were able to break free while pushing the USD to fresh two-year-lows. But can they maintain?

Euro Outlook Hinges on Key Breakouts: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/NZD

The Euro technical outlook seems slightly bullish, with EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/NZD eyeing technical breakouts. There may be upside potential in EUR/JPY, but prices face key resistance.

Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

US equity markets continue to press into uncharted territory while European indices have begun a period of consolidation. Regardless, the Dow Jones, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 will each have to negotiate important technical levels ahead.

Pound Technical Outlook – GBP/USD, Week Ahead Could be a Defining One

Cable is flirting with a potentially massive breakout as the 13500 level comes under siege; the week ahead could be a defining one.

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY, GBP/JPY

The Japanese Yen finds itself near key technical levels as recent weakness in the have-linked US Dollar continued to push USD/JPY lower. Meanwhile, GBP/JPY's current posture looks poised for short-term weakness within a long-term symmetrical triangle.


US Dollar Weekly Performance

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.