Support & Resistance

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Gold Price Outlook: XAU Breakout Grapples at Resistance ahead of FOMC

Short term trading and intraday technical levels.

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Gold prices are trading just 1% off the yearly highs heading into today’s FOMC interest rate decision today. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable here below multi-year slope resistance with a well-defined weekly opening-range taking shape. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts this week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Gold setup and more.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Technical Outlook

Technical Outlook: In my latest Gold Price Weekly Outlook we noted that the breakout was testing the 2016 trendline with the, “immediate gold price advance is vulnerable while below this slope – risk for exhaustion IF price fails a weekly close above 1351.” XAU/USD closed at 1341 last week (also the high-day close) with price consolidating around the 2018 high-day close at 1348.

Momentum divergence into this high continues to highlight the risk for near-term exhaustion here with initial daily support eyed at the 38.2% retracement of the May advance at 1323. Broader bullish invalidation rests with the monthly open / opening-range low / 2018 open at 1302/05. A topside breach exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 2016 high-close at 1366 and the 38.2% retracement at 1379.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min - GLD Technical Outlook

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Gold trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the May lows with price responding to the upper parallels late-last week. IF Friday’s pullback is corrective, losses should be limited to 1329 with near-term bullish invalidation at 1323 – both areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion if reached.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

Bottom line: The weekly opening-range is set in Gold heading into the FOMC interest rate decision later today – look for the break. While the broader outlook remains constructive, a downside break could trigger a larger correction – ultimately, we’d be looking for more favorable entries on a larger pullback. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – be on the lookout for a washout lower. A topside breach / close above of the 2016 trendline is needed to mark resumption. Review our latest Gold 2Q forecasts for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAU/USD prices.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Positioning - GLD Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +1.24 (55.5% of traders are long) – weak bearishreading
  • Long positions are1.4% lower than yesterday and 0.9% lower from last week
  • Short positions are5.8% higher than yesterday and 27.1% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday & compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex


Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook as Highs Near

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

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S&P 500/Dow Jones/Nasdaq 100 Outlook:

  • S&P 500 could ‘react’ around record highs
  • Dow Jones has a couple of degrees of resistance
  • Nasdaq 100 a sign of risk appetite abating in near-term?
  • Bonus chart: Russel 2k lagging severely, bad omen long-term?

See how the quarterly forecast has played out what it could mean for the big-picture – Q2 Equity Markets Forecast.

S&P 500 could ‘react’ around record highs

For the most part, the S&P 500 has gone up in straight-line fashion since bottoming at the beginning of this month, however; the rally could be dented soon. The record highs (2945 closing, 2954 intra-day) are just around the bend and if we see a sizable rejection it could put the path of least resistance in favor of shorts, at least in the near-term.

Even on a small breakout longs will want to be cautious as we could see the rug yanked shortly after achieving new high marks; it wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen this happen. How a decline might ensue should sellers show up is unclear yet. Generally, the market is still in ‘bull-mode’ and will require some aggressive downside price action for sellers to gain the upper hand.

For now, risk/reward isn’t favorable for either side of the tape. We haven’t yet seen the type of price action to warrant aggressive shorts and buying an extended move near the highs holds limited appeal.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how retail traders are positioned and what it could potentially mean for various currencies and markets moving forward.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (Approaching record highs…)

Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook as Highs Near

Dow Jones has a couple of degrees of resistance

The Dow Jones is trading right at a trend-line off the record high and the year high created in April at 26696. This could prove to be a formidable area with the S&P also near a major level. A breakout above the year high will have the record high at 26951 in focus soon after. (See S&P commentary above for take on price action…)

Dow Jones Daily Chart (Trend-line, price resistance)

Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook as Highs Near

Nasdaq 100 a sign of risk appetite abating in near-term?

The Nasdaq 100, home of the darling FAANG group of stocks, isn’t well off its highs, but far enough off that it could be a slight sign of risk appetite fading. This bull-market leader may be signaling that the S&P 500 might fade off record levels. Last month, I discussed Google/FAANG price behavior and how it may have a big-picture impact.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart (lagging, a sign?)

Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook as Highs Near

Bonus chart: Russel 2k lagging severely, bad omen for long-term?

The Russell 2000 is a small-cap index comprised of higher risk companies, and as such when risk appetite is strong the index tends to do well, and when it’s not strong it can do what it is has been doing – lag behind. The divergence going back to last year is glaring and suggests that things in equity-land aren’t as good as they might appear when looking at the large-cap indices. Even more recently since the high posted in May we are seeing the index lag behind by a fairly large margin.

The near-term lag could be leading to the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern. We still need to see the Russell roll down and break the trend-line off the December low and ultimately the neckline of the pattern before a sizable spill can develop. But even in the process of getting to those points the rest of the market might start to turn with concerning force.

Continue to monitor this index in the short and long-term, even if the short-term divergence clears itself up, continued persistence in the long-term divergence may be a canary in the coal mine worth examining later on…

Russell 2000 Daily Chart (Lagging severely, possible H&S formation)

Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook as Highs Near

To learn more about U.S. indices, check out “The Difference between Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500: Major Facts & Opportunities.” You can join me every Wednesday at 10 GMT for live analysis on equity indices and commodities, and for the remaining roster of live events, check out the webinar calendar.

Tools for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a beginning or experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


EURUSD Chart Analysis: Euro May Turn Lower From 3-Month High

Fundamental analysis, economic and market themes.

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EURUSD CHART ANALYSIS: NEUTRAL

  • Euro moves to 3-month high, menacing resistance above 1.14 figure
  • RSI divergence, bearish candlestick pattern warns of downturn ahead
  • Confirmation sought before an actionable trade setup is identified

See our free trading guide to help build confidence in your EURUSD trading strategy!

The Euro is attempting to make good on completing a bullish Falling Wedge chart formation, reversing higher form a deep corrective setback to reach a three-month high against the US Dollar. Breaking resistance marked by the June 7 swing top at 1.1348 has exposed the March 20 high at 1.1448. The seemingly more potent 1.1543-54 price inflection zone follows thereafter.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

The case for lasting upside follow-through looks suspect however, at least for now. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum even as the pair gains ground. A look at more immediate positioning on the four-hour chart also warns against bullish exuberance. It reveals a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern that might prove to be indicative of a top.

EURUSD Chart Analysis: Euro May Turn Lower From 3-Month High

This too ought to be taken with a grain of salt. The immediate uptrend defined by a series of higher highs and lows set from mid-month remains intact, so any pullback from here might be no more than a correction before further gains. On balance, opting for the sidelines seems to be most prudent until signs bearish warning signs are neutralized or downtrend resumption is reasonably confirmed.

EURUSD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter


Euro May Top Versus Pound Sterling, EURGBP Chart Support Taken Out

Classic technical analysis, macro and economic themes.

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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

  • Euro dominant uptrend versus Pound vulnerable to a reversal
  • EURGBP daily chart shows that rising support was taken out
  • Weekly chart showing indecision, net-short trades to unwind?

Just started trading EUR/GBP? Check out ourbeginners’ FX markets guide!

The Euro’s uptrend against the British Pound, initiated by a Bullish Harami candlestick formation in May, is looking increasingly at risk from a technical perspective. Taking a look at the EURGBP daily chart and focusing on price action since May 21, a rising channel of support appears to have been taken out, with a psychological barrier forming at 0.8872.

Breakouts should require confirmation to mark a turning point, and a daily close under 0.8872 could be just that. In such an outcome, that opens the door to testing the next area of support between 0.8838 and 0.8811 before exposing 0.8698. In the event of a false breakout, extending the dominant uptrend since May places resistance at 0.8953, the outer boundary of a barrier that if taken out, foreshadows a test of December highs.

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

Euro May Top Versus Pound Sterling, EURGBP Chart Support Taken Out

Chart Created in TradingView

Zooming out to the weekly chart reveals another warning sign that a reversal could be brewing. A Shooting Star appears to be on the verge of forming, indicating indecision. If confirmed at the end of this week’s close, another five days of declines verifies this potential bearish setup. For updates on EURGBP until then, you may follow me on Twitter where I will be tweeting about it here @ddubrovskyFX.

EURGBP IG Client Sentiment still indicates heavy net-short positioning, offering a stronger bullish-contrarian trading bias. Yet, it is not as aggressive as what we have seen earlier this month. If this is the turning point and we see an unwinding of net-short trades, this could further support the case of a top in EURGBP.

Join me every week on Wednesday’s at 00:00 GMT as I uncover what market positioning has to say about the prevailing trends in currencies, equities and commodities

EUR/GBP Weekly Chart

Euro May Top Versus Pound Sterling, EURGBP Chart Support Taken Out

Chart Created in TradingView

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter


Sterling Price Outlook: GBP/JPY Eyes a Multi-Month Low as Sell-Off Continues

Technical Analysis.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast, Charts and Analysis

  • GBP Sterling looking ahead to CPI numbers today and Bank of England interest rate decision tomorrow.
  • GBP/JPY at its lowest levels since the start of the year.

See our guides to learn about forces leading Sterling and Japanese Yen prices. Download free our Q2 main currencies forecasts

GBP/JPY – Trading Lower

On June 17, the sellers pressed GBP/JPY below the level discussed in our last update 136.40 leading the price in the following day to print its lowest level in five and a half months at 135.38.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has remained since Friday in the oversold territory (below 30) highlighting the strength of the bearish momentum.

Just getting started? See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

GBP/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (Feb 7, 2019 – JUnE 19, 2019) Zoomed In

GBP/JPY price daily chart 19-06-19 Zoomed in

GBP/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (Oct 13, 2016 – JUnE 19, 2019) Zoomed OUT

GBPJPY price daily chart 19-06-19 Zoomed out

Looking at the daily chart we notice GBP/JPY may be looking to continue its bearish move. Therefore, a close below 135.55 could likely lead the price to the low end of the trading zone 133.40 –135.55. Although, the weekly support levels at 134.94 and 134.20 need to be kept in focus.

A failure to close below 135.55 may rally the price to test again 136.40. If the price closes above this level it could rally towards 139.00 however, the daily resistances at 137.48 and the vicinity at 138.36-46 need to be watched along the way.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

GBP/JPY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (, 2019- JUN 19, 2019)

GBPJPY price 4hour chart 19-06-19

Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice on June 11 GBP/JPY rebounded from 138.32 and started a downtrend creating lower highs and lower lows. Today, the pair tested trading above 136.40 however, the first candlestick closed with a bearish Doji pattern showing a possible intention from the sellers to resume pressing the price lower.

Therefore, any break below the June 18 low at 138.58 may lead the price towards 134.20. However, the first weekly support mentioned above should be watched closely.

On the flipside, a rally above the June 17 peak at 136.93 could see the price trading even higher towards the June 13 peak at 137.78. Although, the weekly resistance at 137.30 needs to be considered. See the chart for more key levels if the rally continues above 137.78.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


Sterling (GBP) Price: UK Inflation Back at 2%, UK Leadership Vote Round 3

Fundamental analysis and financial markets.

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Sterling (GBP) Price, Chart and Analysis

  • Inflation in-line with market expectations.
  • The Conservative Leadership contest is now down to 5 contenders.

Q2 2019 GBP and USD Forecasts andTop Trading Opportunities

Sterling Waits For Leadership Vote, FOMC and BoE

The latest round of UK consumer and retail price data showed price pressure stable in May, extending a pattern seen since the start of the year, with year-on-year inflation running at 2.0% - down from 2.1% - while core inflation nudged a tick lower to 1.7% over the same timeframe.

Commenting on today’s release, ONS Head of Inflation Mike Hardie said, ‘Inflation eased in May as air fares fell back after the Easter highs in April. The overall rate of inflation has remained steady since the start of the year’.

The Conservative Party Leadership contest continues today with just five contenders now remaining. Today’s vote will see the candidate with the lowest number of votes eliminated. Tuesday’s round of voting which saw Dominic Raab leave the contest showed Boris Johnson extend his lead over the other candidates, while Rory Stewart also received a boost and overtook Home Secretary Sajid David.

Boris Johnson 126 votes -- Jeremy Hunt 46 votes -- Michael Gove 41 votes – Rory Stewart 37 votes – Sajid Javid 33 votes.

GBPUSD continues to pull back from Tuesday’s multi-month low with three market moving events over the next 24 hours eyed by traders. Later today the result of the Leadership vote takes front stage, followed by the FOMC meeting, ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Meeting. The pullback from Tuesday’s multi-month low currently looks unconvincing and is mainly based on a marginally weaker US dollar. The UK Leadership vote will be the main short-term driver with markets continuing to fear a Hard Brexit as odds-on favorite Brexiteer Boris Johnson continues to hold a commanding lead.

IG Client Sentiment data paints a negative picture for the pair with 81.1% of traders long GBPUSD, a bearish contrarian bias signal. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish trading bias for GBPUSD.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (October 2018 – June 19, 2019)

Sterling (GBP) Price: UK Inflation Back at 2%, UK Leadership Vote Round 3

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on GBPUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.


US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF Price Action Controlled by Sellers for Now

Technical Analysis.

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USD/CHF Price Outlook, Charts and Analysis

  • US Dollar looking ahead to Markit manufacturing PMI numbers today.
  • USD/CHF bearish momentum continues.

Find out more about USD price outlook through mid-year, download for free Q2 major currencies forecasts

USD/CHF – The Buyers Failure

On June 7, USD/CHF bearish move stalled and the pair rallied in the following days but failed to overtake 1.0008 twice effectively capping any start of an uptrend. As such, the sellers did not miss the opportunity and sent the price to print its lowest levels in over five months at 0.9792.

Alongside, on June 12 the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointed higher however, it failed on June 18 to cross above 50 to start a bullish momentum, reflecting the likelihood of the bearish momentum continuation.

Just getting started? See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (Feb 25, 2019 - June 21, 2019) Zoomed in

USDCHF price daily chart 21-06-19 Zoomed in

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (DEC 5, 2016 – June 21, 2019) Zoomed Out

USDCHF price daily chart 21-06-19 Zoomed Out

Looking at the Daily chart, we notice that USD/CHF is eying to test 0.9860. Therefore, a close above this level could send the price higher towards the higher end of the current trading zone 0.9785 – 0.9930 however, the weekly resistances highlighted on the chart need to be watched along the way.

Any failure to close above 0.9860 could mean more bearishness towards the lower end of the trading zone at 0.9785. A close below this level might lead the pair even lower towards 0.9625. See the chart to find out more about where the price could find support in this scenario.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

USD/CHF Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (May 24 – June 21, 2019)

USDCHF price 4H chart 21-06-19

Looking at the four-hour Chart, we notice yesterday USD/CHF rebounded from 0.9792. Therefore, if the price falls below this threshold it could trade lower towards 0.9739 contingent on clearing the lower end of the trading zone mentioned above. See the chart for more key levels if the selloff continues beyond mentioned levels.

On the other hand, any rally above 0.9867 could send USD/CHF towards 0.9930. See the chart for the key weekly resistance needs to be kept in focus.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


EUR/JPY Price Outlook: How EURO May Rally against Japanese Yen

Technical Analysis.

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EUR/JPY Price Outlook

  • EUR/JPY Charts and Analysis
  • EUR/JPY buyers might be preparing to take over.

See our guides and find out for free what is likely to move market prices through Q2 from Main Currencies and Commodities Forecasts

EUR/JPY– Sellers hesitation

On June 18 EUR/JPY daily candlestick closed with a long wick indicating to hesitation from the sellers to press the price lower. On the following days hesitation signs continued so the buyers took the initiative on June 21 and rallied the price recovering all the weekly losses.

On June 21 the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointed higher moving from 35.5 to 45.5 reflecting the weakness in the bearish momentum. It’s worth noting that a cross above 50 indicates to a possible start of an uptrend.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

EUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (FEB 27, 2019- JUN 3, 2019) Zoomed IN

EURJPY Price Daily Chart 24-06-19.PNG Zoomed in

EUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (NOV21, 2016 – JUN24, 2019) Zoomed OUT

EURJPY Price Daily Chart 24-06-19.PNG Zoomed Out

Looking at the daily chart we notice EUR/JPY opened today on an upward gap eying to test 122.52. Any close above this level would move the price to the higher trading zone (122.52 – 124.40) and could send the pair to test the neckline of the double bottom pattern residing at 123.18.

If EUR/JPY breaks and remains above the neckline it could rally towards 124.54 however, the weekly resistance highlighted on the chart need to be kept in focus.

In turn, any failure to close above 122.52 may lead EUR/JPY towards 121.25. Further bearishness might need a close below 121.25. This means the price could head towards 119.78. Although, weekly supports mentioned on the chart need to be watched along the way.

Just getting started? See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

EUR/JPY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (May 16, 2019 – JUNE 24, 2019)

Please add a description for the image.

Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice EU/JPY rebounded from 120.95 on Jun 21. The pair rallied today breaking above 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 123.15 and could be on course to test the aforementioned neckline.

If EUR/JPY breaks and remains above the neckline, this could start a movement towards the zone from 38.2% Fib retracement at 124.25 up to 124.35. However, the weekly resistance zone highlighted on the chart needs to be considered.

On the flipside, if EUR/JPY breaks below 121.48 it might head to tests the June 3 low at 120.78 contingent on clearing the daily and weekly support levels underlined on the chart. See the chart to know more about the significant supports if the selloff continues below the June 3 low.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


NZDUSD Chart Analysis: Sellers Threaten 17-Year Trend Support

Fundamental analysis, economic and market themes.

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NZDUSD Technical Strategy: BEARISH

  • NZD recovery falters at chart resistance, prices sink back to late-May low
  • Break of immediate support exposes 2018 low, resistance just below 0.66
  • Long-term direction change may be triggered on 17-year trendline break

See our free trading guide to help build confidence in your NZDUSD trading strategy!

The New Zealand Dollar lost upside momentum against its US counterpart upon testing a dense resistance bloc running upward through 0.6727, as expected. The currency has now erased all of the upswing from late-May lows and rests atop familiar support in the 0.6476-0.6501 area.

Breaking below this boundary on a daily closing basis initially opens the door for a challenge of the October 8 swing bottom at 0.6425. Immediate resistance is in the 0.6575-91 zone, with a reversal back above that putting the lower bound of the 0.6727-topped resistance bloc at 0.6653 back in the spotlight.

NZDUSD price chart - daily

Zooming out to the monthly chart reveals NZDUSD sellers to be threatening much more than just the latest swing low. The pair appears to be sitting squarely atop 17-year rising trend support. A breakdown here would mark a tectonic shift in the underlying directional bias, setting the stage for lasting weakness to come.

NZDUSD price chart - monthly

NZDUSD TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the Comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter


DAX 30 & CAC 40 Technical Outlook: Pullback Constructive So Far

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

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DAX 30/CAC 40 Technical Highlights

  • DAX pulling back from near yearly high, orderly so far
  • CAC on similar course as its German counterpart

For fundamental and technical forecasts, trade ideas, and educational guides, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

DAX pulling back from near yearly high, orderly so far

The DAX 30 notched a new intra-day high by a few points last week, but has since been retreating. Selling interest has been relatively light with the pullback developing in an orderly manner. This suggests that there is likely to be another attempt to trade higher soon.

There is price support via the June 11 swing-high at 12111, followed by a trend-line from the June 3 low just beneath there. Dialing in closer to the hourly time-frame you can see even better the near confluence between price and trend-line.

Between benign price action and support the current pullback appears set up would-be longs for a good risk/reward entry. A double-top of the May high can’t be ruled out, but until we see aggressive downside price action it is the lower probability scenario.

For now, focused on the top-side. A break above 12438 could have the next level of resistance in focus, a minor swing-high from last year at 12597.

DAX 30 Daily Chart (near new year high)

DAX 30 & CAC 40 Technical Outlook: Pullback Constructive So Far

DAX 30 Hourly Chart (solid upward channel structure)

DAX 30 & CAC 40 Technical Outlook: Pullback Constructive So Far

CAC on similar course as its German counterpart

Naturally the CAC is highly correlated to the DAX, but the near-term technical structures are nearly identical as far as the upward channels are concerned. The lower parallel clocks in under 5500 and if touched here soon it could traders a decent line to lean against from the long-side.

The reversal candle on Friday is a little concerning, but overall upward forces remain intact. The short-term trading bias remains to the upside. If the support line breaks and momentum accelerates then this could change to neutral to bearish.

CAC 40 Daily Chart (year high could soon be next)

DAX 30 & CAC 40 Technical Outlook: Pullback Constructive So Far

CAC 40 Hourly Chart (solid upward channel)

DAX 30 & CAC 40 Technical Outlook: Pullback Constructive So Far

Want to learn more about trading the DAX? Check out ‘How to Trade the DAX’, and join me weekly for technical updates in the Indices and Commodities webinar.

Forex & CFD Trader Resources

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Price Eying a Test of the Weekly Support

Technical Analysis.

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USD/CAD Price Forecast, Charts and Analysis

  • Eyes on Fed Chairman Paul’s speech today about economic outlook and monitory policy.
  • USD/CAD Bearish momentum slows down.

Did we get it right with our US Dollar forecast? Find out more for free from our Q2 USD and main currencies forecasts

USD/CAD – Sellers Holding Fire for Now

On June 19, USD/CAD broke below 1.3289 and kick started a selloff sent the price to the level discussed in our last update at 1.3150. The price rebounded after with the seller likely taking profits.

On June 18, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped below 50 starting a bearish momentum. Today, the oscillator reading is at 34 close by the oversold sold territory.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART (Mar 18, 2019 – JUn 25, 2019) Zoomed In

USD/CAD price daily Chart 25-06-19 Zoomed In

USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART (Mar 27, 2018 – JUnE 25, 2019) Zoomed Out

USDCAD price daily chart 25-06-19 Zoomed Out

Looking at the daily chart we notice USD/CAD eying the lower end of the trading zone 1.3150 – 1.3218 after failing on Friday to close above the higher end. Hence, a close below the lower end might see the price trading towards 1.3064 however, the highlighted weekly supports on the chart should be watched along the way. See the chart for more details if the pair closed below 1.3064.

In turn, a close above the higher end of the aforementioned trading zone could lead the price towards 1.3289. The weekly resistance at 1.3250 should be monitored closely.

Just getting started? See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

USD/CAD Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (Jun 7, 2019 – Jun 20, 2019)

USDCAD price 4H 25-06-19

Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice USD/CAD found support on June 20 at 1.3150 then started a sideways movement. Therefore, any break below this threshold may send the pair towards 1.3112 although, the weekly support underlined on the chart needs to be considered. See the chart for more key levels if the price breaks below mentioned levels.

On the other hand, USD/CAD bounced on June 21 carving out a lower high at 1.3230. Therefore, a break above this level may rally the price to test the weekly resistance at 1.3250. See the chart to find out more if the rally continues.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


Gold Price and Silver Outlook Dented by Wall of Resistance

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

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Gold Price & Silver Technical Outlook:

  • Gold price struggling as expected
  • Strong surge needed for a macro-breakout
  • Silver outlook hinges on the next move in gold

For forecasts, educational content, and more, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Gold price struggling as expected

Last week, gold rallied strongly into a major zone of resistance, measuring from the February peak at 1347 up to the July 2016 high at 1375. The macro-wedge has a top-side trend-line running over from 2014, with several important connecting points making the zone ahead quite formidable.

With that in mind the pullback in gold price to start the week came as no surprise. The question is whether it can garner the strength to push on through the aforementioned levels and spark a lasting macro-breakout that could have gold running for the foreseeable future.

In the near-term there may be more problems. Following the initial pullback we are seeing another push higher this morning that could result in a short-term lower high and a dip below yesterday’s low at 1320. How aggressive sellers become in this scenario will be noteworthy.

A modest pullback or failure to trade below this week’s current low could lead to a consolidation pattern from which gold can attempt to make another break of resistance. However, if sellers show up in earnest soon, then we may again be in the process of the seeing the long-term wedge further tighten up.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how changes in trader positioning can help signal the next price move in gold and other major markets and currencies.

Gold Prices Daily Chart (consolidate or lower-high?)

Gold Price and Silver Outlook Dented by Wall of Resistance

Gold Prices Weekly Chart (1375+ needed for macro-breakout)

Gold Price and Silver Outlook Dented by Wall of Resistance

Silver outlook hinges on the next move in gold

Silver is a tough handle, nothing new on that front. Sometimes it trades well, often times it doesn’t. How it goes moving forward will depend on how resistance is handled in gold. A lower-high below 15.14 could be in the works, and if so that puts silver at risk of trading back near the May low on a break of the weekly low at 14.64, even if gold only declines only modestly.

Silver’s tendency has been to decline more rapidly than it rises relative to gold, relative weakness that has been in place for a long time and could very well continue for a long-time to come.

Silver Price Daily Chart

Gold Price and Silver Outlook Dented by Wall of Resistance

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


ASX 200 Aims At Record High As Technicals, Fundamentals Align

Financial markets, economics, journalism and fundamental analysis.

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ASX 200 Technical Analysis Talking Points:

  • The ASX is close to its 2007 high point
  • Its nearer term uptrend channel faces a topside test
  • Some consolidation is likely, but not a major reversal

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page.

The ASX 200 came through this year’s very patchy risk appetite in style and is now back within close distance of its own record peaks.

The latest boost has come from suspicions that the European Central Bank could soon bolster the global atmosphere of looser monetary policy, and from hopes that the leaders of China and the US will find constructive things to say to each other on trade at this months’ Group of 20 get-together in Osaka.

So much for the fundamentals. The ASX is closing in on a resistance zone which guards those 2007 peaks. Moreover, a look at the monthly chart reveals that the entrenched uptrend from 2009’s post crisis low remains at least as strong as ever.

ASX 200, Monthly Chart

Meanwhile the daily chart shows that the benchmark is attempting to break above the strong uptrend which has previously contained trade since February 4. It hasn’t managed to do so yet on a daily closing basis. but if risk appetite holds up it almost certainly will.

Of course with no real sign of any serious letup in the bull trend the only real immediate question is where any exhaustion-inspired setbacks may find support.

ASX 200, Daily Chart

Once broken conclusively the channel top may offer some, but possibly not enough to halt any likely retracement.

The first 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from Februay 4 may offer some. It comes in well below the current market at 6462.2. Perhaps significantly that is also close to where the ASXC made its last significant peak in the last week of May.

It’s probably worth pointing out that a return to this level without a conclusive break of the uptrend channel would look quite bearish in the short term, and on that basis probably isn’t likely.

However the index is looking unsurprisingly overbought at current levels so some consolidation is both probable and necessary in the sessions ahead, even if it probably won’t signal any significant reversal.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!


Crude Oil Price Probes One-Week High as Sellers Step Back

Fundamental analysis and financial markets.

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Crude Oil Price Chart and Analysis:

  • Crude oil pulls-back but the move is running out of steam.
  • New drivers needed for the next move.

The Brand New DailyFX Q2 2019 Trading Forecast and Guides are Available to Download Now!!

How to Trade Oil: Crude Oil Trading Strategies & Tips.

Crude Oil Needs a New Driver to Continue Pushing Higher

The latest, muted, push-back in the price of crude oil has seen black gold touch a fresh one-week high in thin trade. Crude is now at the bottom of a zone characterized by two sharp sell-off candles, the body of the recent move from the top of the reversal doji (May 28) at $69.40/bbl. to the five-month low (June 5) at $59.22/bbl. The top of this zone also cuts across the 200-day moving average and sits just above 50% Fibonacci retracement at $65.60/bbl. A push back above this zone is likely to need a strong impulse to drive the move.

If this zone is respected, and oil fails to close above $62.75/bbl. then bears may re-test 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $60.63/bbl. before testing sub-$60/bbl. and the recent low. The recent up-tick has taken oil out of heavily oversold territory, but the current level still indicates weakness.

WTI vs Brent: Top 5 Differences Between WTI and Brent Crude Oil

Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (September 2018 – June 7, 2019)

Crude Oil Price Probes One-Week High as Sellers Step Back

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on crude oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.


CAC 40 Double Tops at Channel Line

Swing trading, chart patterns, breakouts, and Elliott wave.

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Talking Points

  • CAC 40 carves a double top pattern
  • Elliott Wave pattern could not push beyond the mid-line of the Elliott Wave channel
  • Bears are activated on a move below channel support near 5200

The Elliott Wave pattern on CAC 40 is intriguing. CAC 40 appears to have finished the five wave impulse move at the Elliott Wave channel mid-line. This implies a weak market and is a bearish pattern.

This pattern suggests that a longer term correction is underway. The first battle of support emerges near 5,200 where the blue Elliott Wave support channel emerges as well as the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud.

Interested in learning more about Elliott Wave and Ichimoku? Grab the beginner and advanced Elliott Wave guide as well as the Ichimoku guide.

CAC 40 Elliott Wave and Ichimoku Pattern

CAC 40 Double Tops at Channel Line

Created using IG Charts

Any near term bulls would need to show themselves in CAC 40 near 5,200. If this level breaks, then the door is opened up to 4,900-5,000. We have two different levels appearing there.

First, the previous wave ‘iv’ extreme is near 5,000. Previous fourth waves tend to act like a magnet in corrective moves.

Secondly, the 38% retracement of the June 2016 (Brexit) low to the November 1, 2017 highs appears near 4,921.

Therefore, if 5,200 breaks, traders can look for further weakness down towards the 4,900-5,000 price zone.

Lower potential exists, but we will need to see the structure of how the correction develops to weigh the odds further.

Why do traders lose money? Find out in our Traits of Successful Traders Research.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M

Jeremy is a Certified Elliott Wave analyst with a Master’s designation. This report is intended to help break down the patterns according to Elliott Wave theory.

Discuss this market with Jeremy in Monday’s US Opening Bell webinar.

Follow on twitter @JWagnerFXTrader .

Join Jeremy’s distribution list.

Other Elliott Wave forecasts by Jeremy:

GBP/USD Hanging Over the Edge of a Cliff

AUDUSD technical forecast hints at the market searching for a bottom.

Short term EURUSD Pattern Hints at Bounce to 1.17.

USD/CAD dives 200 pips, will it continue?

Gold price forecast points towards lower levels.

Crude oil prices reach highest level since July 2015.

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Temporary Relief Rallies

USD/JPY : A Bird in the Hand is Better Than Two in the Bush


US Dollar Technical Analysis: Can USD Hold this Rebound?

Position Trading based on technical set ups, Risk Management & Trader Psychology.

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US Dollar Index (DXY) Key Points:

  • The ONE Thing: Sentiment Extremes in USD are not matched by a positive technical picture for the US Dollar. There appears to be a form of divergence in the works as the US Dollar is rising, but at a tepid pace despite the largest number of US Dollar bulls in 52-weeks per Paul Robinson’s breakdown of the CFTC report, CoT Update for US Dollar, Euro, British Pound, Gold, and More.
  • Technical studies may be disheartening for US Dollar bulls as sentiment extremes are showing a lack of an impulsive follow through.
  • Make no mistake; the dire Emerging Market headlines tend to align with a strengthening US Dollar. If the US Dollar continues to strengthen, there will likely be more/ worse headlines coming from EM, but a reversal in recent US Dollar strength could bring massive relief to many global markets with a high stock of USD-denominated debt.
  • Technical Outlook on the US Dollar: The US Dollar has retraced 50% of it’s August drop, which followed bearish MACD (5,34,5) divergence. However, a break of the August low at 94 would open up a move likely to 93.79/92.9.

Unlock our Q3 forecast to learn what will drive trends for the US Dollar through the rest of 2018!

It’s a popular time to be hot US assets. The US stock market is running away with the record books while others bourses are steeped in bear markets. Traders in Foreign Exchange are also apt to talk about the virtues of being long the US Dollar.

Their arguments are sound when taking a snapshot of the current global macro environment that is ripe of the following headlines:

  • The Federal Reserve looks set to keep hiking despite other central banks having difficulty leaving negative rates
  • Britain’s Brexit progress looks uncertain at best despite Britain being set to leave the EU on March 29, 2019,without an agreement in place to define future relations
  • Emerging Markets are in crisis mode with Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India, & Turkey seeing their currencies rapidly depreciating against the US Dollar.
  • China and the US are embroiled in a Trade War that seems to favor the US in the current atmosphere as China PMI recently slowed relative to expectations and the PBoC recently engaged in liquidity injections that may show a slowing economy.

More themes are going on right now, but you get the idea. We’re in an environment that one may think the US Dollar Index should be trading at or above the 2017 extreme or at least at 2018 extremes.

But, it’s not.

The US Dollar is working through a technical bounce right now with extreme sentiment, and technical traders should be aware that a flip in sentiment from bullish to bearishness could bring a sharp drop in the US Dollar that could lead into massive relief for emerging markets, commodities, and equities around the world.

A further rally in US Dollar would likely embolden the bears that are encircling multiple emerging market themes right now that could send us from theme to crisis.

Put simply, the strengthening US Dollar, despite being off the highs of 2018 and less than 50% of the 2017-2018 range remains a hamper to growth, and a coordinated move from the Fed to take some of the air out may “support the global market,” and lead to a falling USD into and through Q4.

Technically Speaking – A Weak Bounce On Extreme Sentiment

US Dollar Technical Analysis: Can USD Hold this Rebound?

Chart Source: Pro Real Time with IG UK Price Feed. Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

Momentum per MACD (5, 34, 5) remains bearish at below zero, but bullish sentiment is at one-year extremes. That does not sound like an ideal recipe for a bullish breakout, and traders should be on the watch for a test and break below the August low near 94.

Such a break would likely align with a broad rally in emerging markets, I’m looking at you CSI300, and would also be signaled first and foremost by the USD/CNY that has made an argument for being The most important currency pair in the world (sorry, EUR/USD.)

Given the technical concern I have and the worsening macro global backdrop (it’s not pretty outside of US risky assets,) I am watching for a pullback toward 93.79/92.90 on the US Dollar Index. This comprises of two key pull-backs before the August high and the median line of the massive Andrew’s Pitchfork drawn from the key pivots in late 2017 and early 2018.

A break below this zone would argue for a broader regime shift and would likely be cemented through speculative futures positioning that you can track from Paul Robinson’s weekly wrap up.

My bearish these would be discredited on a break and close above 95.61, the 61.8% retracement of the August range. Such a move would technically favor a move toward 97, the top of the channel on the charts.

We’ll see.

New to FX trading? No worries, we created this guide just for you.

MORE SUPPORT FOR YOUR TRADING:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q3 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer an excess of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our popular and free IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

---Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. Tyler provides Technical analysis that is powered by fundamental factors on key markets as well as t1rading educational resources. Read more of Tyler’s Technical reports via his bio page.

Communicate with Tyler and have your shout below by posting in the comments area. Feel free to include your market views as well.

Discuss this market with Tyler in the live webinar, FX Closing Bell, Weekdays Monday-Thursday at 3 pm ET.

Talk markets on twitter @ForexYell


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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Three Month Highs to Set Bullish Breakout

Price action and Macro.

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Talking Points:

- USD/CHF resisted off of a key area again this morning. Should USD-strength continue, a bullish move over this resistance level can open the door to breakout strategies in Swissy.

- While USD weakness continued well into this month, USD/CHF has been range-bound since July, deductively highlighting a relatively weak Swiss Franc that could become attractive for continuation should USD-strength continue to show.

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The U.S. Dollar has had a rather rough 2017. In a down-trend that’s seen as much as -12.3% of the U.S. Dollar’s value erased, even while the Fed talks up additional rate hikes, few currencies have been able to keep pace with the Greenback’s declines. After coming into the year trading above the 1.0300 level, USD/CHF has seen as much as 925 pips taken-out as the pair has driven-lower.

But after running into support in mid-July around the .9433 level (the 2016 low), the declines have slowed as USD/CHF has built into a rather volatile range-bound pattern. Resistance has begun to build around the .9773 level, and we’ve seen multiple iterations of resistance show-up here; each rebuking USD/CHF’s upward advance.

USD/CHF Daily: Range-Bound Since Re-Test of 2016 Low

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Three Month Highs to Set Bullish Breakout

Chart prepared by James Stanley

At this point, a top-side break of that well-worn resistance level could open the door to an attractive bullish breakout setup. Just above this area of resistance is another level of interest at .9813, as this is a prior swing-low point of support that also showed as a quick swing-high before the pair initially sank below .9770. This can be used in a couple of different ways. For traders looking at the more aggressive route of taking on bullish exposure on a break of .9775 (a few pips beyond the exact point of resistance), the level at .9813 can be utilized as an initial target and an opportunity to move the initial stop up to breakeven. Or, for those who want to approach USD/CHF a bit more conservatively, the .9813 level can be used to trigger the bullish breakout, with .9772 becoming an area to look to for stop placement in the effort of containing risk in the event that the breakout doesn’t continue-higher.

On the chart below, we’ve added five potential resistance levels above the .9813 inflection point, each of which has been derived from a prior price action swing and/or group of swings. Each of these can be used as potential targets should the bullish breakout continue if/when resistance is taken out.

USD/CHF Four-Hour: Potential Top-Side Resistance Levels Applied

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Three Month Highs to Set Bullish Breakout

Chart prepared by James Stanley

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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AUDUSD Chart Analysis: Downtrend Expected to Resume After Bounce

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AUDUSD CHART ANALYSIS: BEARISH

  • Australian Dollar bounce seen as corrective within broader downtrend
  • Invalidating bearish bias needs a breach of resistance above 0.71 figure
  • Weekly chart positioning implies downside objective near the 0.67 mark

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The Australian Dollar has managed a tepid recovery against its US counterpart after finding support just above the January 2016 low at 0.6827. Still, the outlines of the breakdown identified last week – a breach of countertrend support following rejection former resistance in the 0.6978-0.7021 area – remain intact.

That paints the current rise as corrective within the context of a larger descent. In fact, buyers would probably need to engineer a daily AUDUSD close above falling trend line resistance set from early December 2018 – now at 0.7114 – to convincingly neutralize the downside bias.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Bearish resumption that brings the exchange rate below 0.6827 targets the 2019 spike low at 0.6744 next. The weekly chart warns of deeper losses still, showing a completed Descending Triangle chart formation that implies a measured downside target within a hair of the 0.67 figure.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - weekly

AUDUSD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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FTSE 100 Outlook – Rally Has Price Extending into Resistance Levels

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FTSE 100 Technical Highlights:

  • FTSE 100 trading into trend-line, price levels ahead
  • May pause here but overall tone still firm

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FTSE 100 trading into trend-line, price levels ahead

The FTSE 100 popped yesterday as global stocks as a whole were quite strong. The rally brought into play the trend-line running down off the May 2018 record high. Careful attention will be paid to how it handles the trend-line; hold firm or find eager sellers?

A rally on through trend resistance will have focus on resistance in the vicinity of 7523/52, the April high/September 2018 peak, respectively. Either the trend-line now or price resistance ahead are enough to prove problematic.

Overall, though, the global risk-trade in general remains positive and may be enough to continue helping along the FTSE. With U.S. stocks nearing record highs again and Europe looking to trade to fresh yearly highs, the FTSE may be ready to soon surpass the April high.

On the downside a minor trend-line from earlier this month will quickly come into play on weakness. A drop through the recent swing-low at 7316 would be concerning and a reason to start gearing up for a move towards the trend-line off the December low.

For now, risk/reward on fresh longs doesn’t hold much appeal with resistance at hand, but without a break in upward momentum shorts aren’t very appealing either. Trade set-ups at the moment look to be limited to intra-day scalps until we can see how things play out in the days ahead.

FTSE Daily Chart (levels, lines to watch)

FTSE 100 Outlook – Rally Has Price Extending into Resistance Levels

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Japanese Yen Bulls Could Face Big Trouble If Risk Appetite Holds

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Japanese Yen Technical Analysis Talking Points:

  • USD/JPY has continued to slide despite a big bounce in growth-linked assets
  • Other fundamentals may still be supporting the Yen
  • But a look at its monthly chart suggests that that may not last

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The Japanese Yen has been in a strong fundamental position against the US Dollar since late April and shared fully in the renewed bout of Dollar weakness seen this week in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s leaving wide open the door to lower rates next month.

The Bank of Japan for its part left the monetary settings alone this month. They’re so loose that that could not rationally be described as any sort of ‘hawkish’ play but, at the margin, the Fed has shifted its position while the BoJ’s remains the same.

Technically speaking USD/JPY remain firmly in the long downtrend channel which has marked that pair’s long swallow dive from the April highs.

US Dollar Vs Japanese Yen, Daily Chart.

The pair remains above this year’s lows, however and a retest of those looks likely enough, possibly quite soon.

However, there does seem to be a rather obvious mismatch in the Yen’s behavior. The prospect of lower interest rates in the US and, by implication, elsewhere, has turbo-charged growth sensitive assets at the expense of perceived havens. The Japanese Yen usually falls into the latter category.

It may be the USD/JPY is simply experiencing a lagged effect, with Dollar weakness elsewhere feeding through into trade in the pair. It may also be that other factors, such as rising geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz, are supporting the Japanese currency.

All the same, it might not be wise to bet on those lasting if broad risk appetite holds up.

A look at the monthly chart for USD/JPY reveals a long term-pennant formation going back to early 2016. This confluence of up- and down-trend lines is usually seen as a continuation pattern. That means that, once it resolves, the previous situation will reassert itself. In this case, that would be a forceful USD/JPY uptrend

.

This is by no means an infallible predictor, but in a low-rate scramble for yield it is unlikely that the Yen will do well. Falls from here could be good long-term buying opportunities.

US Dollar Vs Japanese Yen, Monthly Chart.

The Australian Dollar also fell victim to a dovish domestic central bank this week and sure enough AUD/JPY is back to its lows for 2019 (if you discount the ‘flash crash’ seen in the year’s opening days).

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen, Daily Chart

It is very difficult to get fundamentally bullish on the Australian Dollar, so complete is its lack of monetary policy support. It is notable from the daily chart above , however, that AUD/JPY has seen a huge number of days with very small ranged between open and close. This may suggest that there is not massive conviction in the market and that a risk-related upswing for the Aussie cannot be discounted even if it doesn’t last.

That view is probably entirely correct.

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--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

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