Support & Resistance

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S - Strong
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M - Moderate
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W - Weak
   

Gold Price Chart: XAU Breakout Testing Resistance at Six-Year Highs

Short term trading and intraday technical levels.

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Gold prices have surged nearly 13% off the yearly lows with the advance probing fresh six-year highs today in New York. The breakout is testing initial resistance targets today at the late-2013 swing highs with daily momentum deep in overbought territory. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable near-term while below today’s highs. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts this week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Gold setup and more.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Technical Outlook

Technical Outlook: In my latest Gold Price Weekly Outlook we noted that a weekly close above 1392 was needed to keep the immediate long-bias viable targeting, “subsequent topside objectives at 1433 and the 100% extension of the late-2015 advance at 1451- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.” Price registered a high at 1439 today before puling back into the 1433 zone early in US trade.

While the broader outlook remains constructive, a daily close below this threshold would leave the immediate advance vulnerable. No significant support emerges until 1391 with broader bullish invalidation at 1366. A topside breach from here keeps the focus on the 100% extension of the late-2015 advance at 1451 (critical) backed by the 50% retracement of the 2011 decline at 1482.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: The immediate Gold price advance is vulnerable while below the 1433. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Be on the lookout for possible near-term exhaustion IF price fails to close above today. Ultimately a larger pullback may offer more favorable long-entries while above former slope resistance / 1391. Review our latest Gold 2Q forecasts for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAU/USD prices.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Positioning - GLD Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +1.46 (59.3% of traders are long) – weak bearishreading
  • Long positions are3.2% higher than yesterday and 21.8% higher from last week
  • Short positions are11.3% higher than yesterday and 9.0% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex


Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

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S&P 500/Dow Jones/Nasdaq 100 Outlook:

  • S&P 500 pulling back from record levels
  • Dow Jones could consolidate before trading higher
  • Nasdaq 100 showing relative weakness
  • Bonus chart: Keep watching the Russell

See how the quarterly forecast has played out what it could mean for the big-picture – Q2 Equity Markets Forecast.

S&P 500 pulling back from record levels

The S&P 500 is reacting a bit from around record levels as was suggested might happen last week, and while the initial move lower has held a little bit of power we can’t yet read too much into it from a bearish standpoint.

Seeing a snapback here and bit of consolidation may gear the market up for a move higher soon. The tone and trend are still favorable at the moment. What could change this, however, is if the S&P 500 turns back up towards the high at 2964 and posts a clear failure, resulting in a lower-high or double-top. A turn up and swift rejection a second time may do the trick for giving sellers the upper hand.

But conviction is lacking and which way the market wants to resolve itself is still very much up air at the moment; need to give the market a minute to breathe and provide better indications before running with a strong trading bias in either direction.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how retail traders are positioned and what it could potentially mean for various currencies and markets moving forward.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (watch how another turn higher unfolds)

Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis

Dow Jones could consolidate before trading higher

The Dow Jones is turning down from around record levels, but holding up a little bit better than the other indices. A period of consolidation would do the index some good before trying to launch through the 26952 level.

Dow Jones Daily Chart (consolidate before push to highs?)

Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis

Nasdaq 100 showing relative weakness

The down-move met support from June 11 at 7595, a good spot to see the Nasdaq 100 turn higher from. Overall there is still some lag as it has yet to trade to the record high levels from April. If it is to do so a move through 7770 will need to develop, first, then the 7852 can be challenged.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart (levels to watch)

Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis

Bonus chart: Russel 2k lag is concerning

Continue to monitor the Russell 2k, a barometer of overall market health I continue to focus on as it lags severely on all time-frames from short to long-term. Keep an eye on the head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern that is developing. A crossing below the trend-line of the December will quickly have he neckline in focus and potential break. If this pattern triggers it would be a bad omen for the market.

Russell 2000 Daily Chart (H&S forming...)

Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis

To learn more about U.S. indices, check out “The Difference between Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500: Major Facts & Opportunities.” You can join me every Wednesday at 10 GMT for live analysis on equity indices and commodities, and for the remaining roster of live events, check out the webinar calendar.

Tools for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a beginning or experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


EURUSD Technical Analysis: Trend Bias Bearish Amid Congestion

Fundamental analysis, economic and market themes.

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EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: NEUTRAL

  • Euro chart sending mixed signals as prices struggle in congestion
  • Traders might withhold conviction bets until greater clarity is had
  • Long-term positioning still argues for a broadly bearish trend bias

See the latest Euro technical and fundamental forecast to find out what will drive prices in Q3!

Euro technical positioning has been somewhat confounding in recent weeks. The currency completed a bullish Falling Wedge chart formation, hinting that an upturn against the US Dollar is in the cards. Prices have struggled for follow-through however. A rejection downward on a test above the 1.14 figure led to a break of trend support set form late May, hinting that the nascent rebound has died in infancy.

Sellers may find it premature to celebrate however. Thus far, the down move has only retested Wedge top, leaving the bullish implications of its break intact. A rebound here has now brought on a challenge of the broken rising trend line as resistance, leaving markets wondering which recently breached technical level will hold up and which reversal – upward or downward – will end up being neutralized.

EURUSD Technical Analysis: Trend Bias Bearish Amid Congestion

Practically speaking, this probably means that traders will withhold directional conviction until a concrete break from congestion is secured. In the meantime, zooming out to the monthly chart for a bit of context seems instructive. Prices remain locked in a decade-long decline – recent chop aside – appear to be grinding lower after breaking support in the 1.1449-1.11554 zone. The 1.05 figure beckons ahead.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - monthly

EURUSD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter


EURGBP Could Break 1-Month Rising Support, Upside Momentum Fading

Political economy, economic and market themes.

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EURGBP TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

  • Will the two-month EUR/GBP uptrend reverse?
  • Negative RSI divergence shows upside momentum is fading
  • Brexit volatility likely to be reflected in GBP

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

Since May, EURGBP has been climbing along an upward-sloping two-month support channel that almost broke approximately a week ago. The pair may continue trading higher, though the path of least resistance suggests the pair will capitulate as negative RSI divergence shows that upside momentum is fading.

EURGBP – Daily Chart

EURGBP - Daily Chart

However, a change in the indicator by no means guarantees that there is a trend reversal approaching, but rather illustrates that the upside momentum that carried the pair to their current levels may be waning. A break from the uptrend would fall in line with fundamental headwinds, which – at least for next week – may be primarily blowing harder against the Euro relative to Sterling –barring any unexpected news.

Want to know the impact of political volatility on FX markets? Be sure to follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri.

Zooming out to a weekly chart shows that the pair has spectacularly recovered after it approached the upper bound of the 3-year support area between 0.8300-0.8477 (red dotted lines). Since May 6, EURGBP has climbed over five percent and has closed higher for seven consecutive weeks. Looking at the ROC shows that that in the past two weeks, EURGBP had its most impressive run since August 2017.

EURGBP – Weekly Chart

EURGBP - Weekly Chart

Looking ahead, monitoring this uptrend with scrutiny will be crucial to determine if the pair’s resolve for climbing higher holds or whether it will crash from its sugar rush. It is worth noting that Sterling’s price moves are frequently impacted by Brexit-related developments. As such, the volatility of the situation is often reflected in proportional price moves in GBP.

EURGBP TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter


Pound Sterling Outlook: GBP/JPY Price Printing New Multi-Month Low

Technical Analysis.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast

  • GBP Sterling Charts and Analysis
  • GBP/JPY price action.

Have you checked our latest trading guide for USD and Gold? Download for free our Q3 Forecasts

GBP/JPY – The Sellers are Back

On Monday, GBP/JPY sellers ended the trendless move and forced the pair to close below 135.55 after failing six times since last month. Today, the pair printed 133.85 - its lowest level in over six months.

On Monday, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped towards the oversold territory then remained flat, indicating the sellers are dominating with a bit of hesitation.

Just getting started?See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

GBP/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (JAN 13, 2017 – JULY 18, 2019) Zoomed out

GBP/JPY price daily chart 18-07-19 Zoomed out

GBP/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (May 23 – JULY 18, 2019) Zoomed IN

GBP/JPY price daily chart 18-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart we notice at the start of this week GBP/JPY moved to a lower trading zone 133.40 – 135.55 eyeing a test of the low- end of this range.

Its worth noting that a close below the low-end could send the price to test the yearly support at 132.37, however the weekly support level at 133.00 would be worth monitoring.

In turn, any failure to close below the low-end may cause a rally towards the high-end of this zone although, the daily resistance level underlined on the chart should be considered. See the chart (zoomed in) to know more about the significant resistance levels in a further bullish scenario.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

GBP/JPY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (JunLY 10 – July 18, 2019)

GBP/JPY price four-hour chart 18-07-19

Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice yesterday GBP/JPY tried to recover some of the recent losses however, stopped at 134.62 and fell back therefore, a break above this level may send the price towards the high-end of the aforementioned trading zone although, the daily resistance marked on the chart needs to be monitored.

On the other hand, if the pair continues to fall, then a break below the 133.00 handle could press the price towards 132.02 however, the yearly support mentioned above (see the chart) should be watched closely.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


Sterling (GBP) Price: UK Inflation Back at 2%, UK Leadership Vote Round 3

Fundamental analysis and financial markets.

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Sterling (GBP) Price, Chart and Analysis

  • Inflation in-line with market expectations.
  • The Conservative Leadership contest is now down to 5 contenders.

Q2 2019 GBP and USD Forecasts andTop Trading Opportunities

Sterling Waits For Leadership Vote, FOMC and BoE

The latest round of UK consumer and retail price data showed price pressure stable in May, extending a pattern seen since the start of the year, with year-on-year inflation running at 2.0% - down from 2.1% - while core inflation nudged a tick lower to 1.7% over the same timeframe.

Commenting on today’s release, ONS Head of Inflation Mike Hardie said, ‘Inflation eased in May as air fares fell back after the Easter highs in April. The overall rate of inflation has remained steady since the start of the year’.

The Conservative Party Leadership contest continues today with just five contenders now remaining. Today’s vote will see the candidate with the lowest number of votes eliminated. Tuesday’s round of voting which saw Dominic Raab leave the contest showed Boris Johnson extend his lead over the other candidates, while Rory Stewart also received a boost and overtook Home Secretary Sajid David.

Boris Johnson 126 votes -- Jeremy Hunt 46 votes -- Michael Gove 41 votes – Rory Stewart 37 votes – Sajid Javid 33 votes.

GBPUSD continues to pull back from Tuesday’s multi-month low with three market moving events over the next 24 hours eyed by traders. Later today the result of the Leadership vote takes front stage, followed by the FOMC meeting, ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Meeting. The pullback from Tuesday’s multi-month low currently looks unconvincing and is mainly based on a marginally weaker US dollar. The UK Leadership vote will be the main short-term driver with markets continuing to fear a Hard Brexit as odds-on favorite Brexiteer Boris Johnson continues to hold a commanding lead.

IG Client Sentiment data paints a negative picture for the pair with 81.1% of traders long GBPUSD, a bearish contrarian bias signal. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish trading bias for GBPUSD.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (October 2018 – June 19, 2019)

Sterling (GBP) Price: UK Inflation Back at 2%, UK Leadership Vote Round 3

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on GBPUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.


USD/CHF, EUR/CHF Price Outlook: Euro and US Dollar Rebound against Swiss Franc

Technical Analysis.

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Price Forecast

  • USD/CHF and EUR/CHF price action.
  • EUR/CHF and USD/CHF Charts and Analysis

Did you check our latest forecasts on USD and EUR and Gold? Find out more for free from our Q3 forecasts for commodities and main currencies

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF Closing with Loss

Last week EUR/CHF peaked at 1.11598 then declined as expected in our last update closing the weekly candlestick with nearly 0.5% loss of its value. On the other hand, USD/CHF suffered even more and closed with 1.5% loss on Friday.

Today, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointed higher for both however, it might be early to talk about a possible uptrend with EUR/CHF still below 50 and USD/CHF has not crossed above yet.

Just getting started?See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (JAN 5, 2017 – JULY 17, 2019) Zoomed Out

USD/CHF price daily chart 17-07-19 Zoomed out

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (April 16 – JULY 17, 2019) Zoomed IN

USDCHF price daily chart 17-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at daily chart, we notice USD/CHF on Monday U-turned at 0.9817 then rallied in the following day closing in a higher trading zone 0.9860 – 0.9930 and currently, the pair may be on its way to test the high- end of this zone.

Hence, a close above the high-end could open the door for the price to rally towards 1.0008 although, the weekly resistance levels marked on the chart (zoomed in) should be watched along the way.

In turn, a close below the low-end of the zone might send the price towards 0.9785 however, the weekly support levels mentioned on the chart (zoomed in) need to be kept in focus.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

EUR/CHF Daily Price Chart (JUL 17 , 2017 – JULY 17, 2019) Zoomed Out

EUR/CHF price daily chart 17-07-19 Zoomed out

EUR/CHF Daily Price Chart (MAY 3 – JULY 17, 2019) Zoomed IN

EUR/CHF price daily chart 17-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart, we notice EUR/CHF pressed lower on Friday then rebounded yesterday from the low end of the trading zone 1.1057- 1.1190. Therefore, the pair may be on its way to test the high-end of this zone contingent on clearing the daily resistance levels underlined on the chart (zoomed in).

Its worth noting that if EUR/CHF breaks and remains above the neckline of a double bottom pattern residing at 1.1172 this could open the door for the price to rally towards 1.1278 however, the price should first clear the high -end of the aforementioned trading zone with the weekly resistance levels highlighted on the chart.

On the flip-side, a close below the low-end of the trading zone might press the price towards 1.1001 nonetheless, the weekly support zone underscored on the chart needs to be considered.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


Euro Price Forecast: EUR/JPY Struggles to Move in a Clear Direction- How Could This Change

Technical Analysis.

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EUR/JPY Price Outlook

  • EUR/JPY Charts and Analysis
  • EUR/JPY price continues its trendless move.

Have you checked our latest trading guides for USD and Gold? Download for free Q3 Main Currencies and Commodities Forecasts

EUR/JPY– Buyers Failed Attempt

On July 8, EUR/JPY opened with an upward gap then rallied on Wednesday to its highest level in a week, however the pair slipped back below 122.00 handle and closed with a bearish Doji pattern, signaling the weakness of the buyers to keep rallying the price.

Alongside, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointed higher, although; failed to cross above 50 indicating the buyer’s lack of momentum to kick start uptrend move.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

EUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (DEC 1 , 2016 – JUl 15, 2019) Zoomed OUT

EUR/JPY price daily chart 15-07-19 Zoomed out

EUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (April 7, 2019- JUL 15, 2019) Zoomed IN

EUR/JPY price daily chart 15-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart we notice at the start of July, EUR/JPY stuck in tight trading zone 122.52- 121.25, and since July 3 the pair failed to test any of the high or the low end of this zone.

Thus, a close below the low end of the aforementioned trading zone may press the price towards 119.78, although the weekly support zone and levels marked on the chart (zoomed in) need to be watched along the way.

In turn, a close above the high end of the trading zone could cause the price to rally towards 124.40, however, the weekly resistance zone and levels underlined on the chart (zoomed in) would be worth monitoring.

Just getting started? See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

EUR/JPY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (June 20, 2019 – JUL 15, 2019)

EUR/JPY price four- hour chart 15-07-19

Looking at the four-hour chart we notice on July 3, EUR/JPY rebounded from 121.31 (weekly low) therefore, a break below this threshold would lead the price to print its lowest level in nearly four weeks and could send the price towards the June 21 low at 120.95, contingent on clearing the weekly support at 121.25. See the chart to know more about the next significant support if the selloff continues below mentioned levels.

On the other hand, we notice on July 5, EUR/JPY started a short uptrend creating higher highs with higher lows, however this uptrend stalled on July 10 at 122.32 (weekly high) hence, a break above this high might activate this uptrend and could send the price towards 123.00, however; the vicinity at 122.52-54 should be kept in focus.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


NZDUSD Technical Analysis: One-Month Uptrend Broken. Now What?

Fundamental analysis, economic and market themes.

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NZDUSD Technical ANALYSIS: NEUTRAL

  • New Zealand Dollar marks swing top with Bearish Engulfing pattern
  • Break of uptrend from mid-June lows points to near-term bias change
  • Risk/reward improvement probably needed to inspire follow-through

See our free trading guide to help build confidence in your NZDUSD trading strategy!

The New Zealand Dollar turned lower against its US counterpart after producing a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, as expected. Sellers now target support in the 0.6575-91 area, with a break below that confirmed on a daily closing basis exposing the 0.6476-0.6501 zone. Resistance begins at 0.6653 runs upward through a dense bloc of overlapping barriers through 0.6727.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Zooming in to the four-chart reveals a critical big of evidence supporting the case for downside follow-through. Prices have broken well-defined support guiding NZDUSD higher since mid-June, pointing to a palpable change in the prevailing near-term trend and adding a sense of bearish immediacy. Rejection at former support above 0.66 following the breakdown hints at further reinforcement.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis: One-Month Uptrend Broken. Now What?

With this in mind, prices are sitting in close proximity to immediate support, which might undercut the risk/reward case for establishing new short exposure. This might mean that the next sizable leg lower will require either a pull-up to improve relative positioning or further breakdown. The fundamental landscape seems to set the stage for the latter as markets ponder key event risk shaping Fed policy bets.

NZDUSD TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the Comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter


DAX 30 & CAC 40 Charts: Pulling Back or Rolling Over?

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

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DAX 30/CAC 40 Technical Highlights

  • DAX pulling back, healthy or a sign when compared to the U.S.?
  • CAC healthier looking, lots of resistance to contend with though

For fundamental and technical forecasts, trade ideas, and educational guides, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

DAX pulling back, healthy or a sign when compared to the U.S.?

The DAX 30 weakening this month so far hasn’t been too alarming, as it has unfolded with relatively weak momentum. But when compared to the world’s largest market, the U.S., German stocks have been showing signs of relative weakness. It might not be anything to worry about, but a development worth monitoring moving forward should we continue to see a growing divergence between Europe and the U.S.

Looking at the DAX chart alone, it still looks like a heathy pullback and has trend support to test not far below. A test of the trend-line off the December low could help further support the uptrend dating back to the late-year low. It could also offer would-be longs a solid risk/reward spot to enter.

It’s possible that with a little more time the developing channel off the July 4 high will present a bull-flag-like pattern to operate with as well. Holding the December trend-line and then breaking the top-side of the channel would make for an appealing set-up from where I sit – Hold support, then break resistance.

DAX 30 Daily Chart (pulling back to t-line)

DAX 30 & CAC 40 Charts: Pulling Back or Rolling Over?

CAC healthier looking, lots of resistance to contend with though

The CAC snuck above the April peak to test the May 2018 highs, but has so far struggled to maintain or climb above these critical swing highs. The recent price action for the French benchmark has been a bit more encouraging that is has for the DAX, with it moving mostly horizontal this month.

If the DAX tests the December trend-line, the CAC may not do-so as it is showing more strength. The only caveat to the CAC outperforming is that it may get tripped up on an attempt to break above the May 2018 high at 5657.

CAC 40 Daily Chart (holding up, but has lots or resistance ahead)

DAX 30 & CAC 40 Charts: Pulling Back or Rolling Over?

Want to learn more about trading the DAX? Check out ‘How to Trade the DAX’, and join me weekly for technical updates in the Indices and Commodities webinar.

Forex & CFD Trader Resources

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


USD/CAD Price Forecast: US Dollar Fall Against Canadian Slows Down

Technical Analysis.

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USD/CAD Price Outlook

  • US Dollar to Canadian charts and analysis.
  • USD/CAD sellers not in a hurry.

Have you checked the Q3 USD and Gold forecasts download for free main currencies and commodities trading guides, and learn what is likely to drive the price action through this time of the year.

USD/CAD – Falling with a Lower Impulse

On Friday USD/CAD resumed its downtrend move printing its lowest level in eight and half months at 1.3018, eyeing to fall to the discussed level in our last update at 1.2920.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stopped falling before testing the oversold territory, and created a higher low indicating to a positive divergence and a possible upside move if the price closes today above the aforementioned level.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART (JUN 22, 2017 – July 16, 2019) Zoomed Out

USD/CAD price daily chart 16-07-19 Zoomed out

USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART (April 26 – JULy 16, 2019) Zoomed In

USD/CAD price daily chart 16-07-19. Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart we notice on Friday USD/CAD tumbled to the lower trading zone 1.3008 – 1.3064 however, the price has not tested the low end yet. Hence, a close above the high end may lead the price towards 1.3126 although, the weekly resistance marked on the chart (zoomed in) needs to be watched closely. See the chart to know more about the next significant levels in a further bullish scenario.

In turn, resuming the bearish efforts may require a close below the low end of the aforementioned trading zone. This could send the price towards 1.2950, with a special attention to any close below 1.2920, see the chart (zoomed out).

Just getting started? See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

USD/CAD Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (JuLY 4 – JuLY 16, 2019)

USD/CAD price four- hour chart 16-07-19

Looking at the four-hour chart we notice USD/CAD rebounded twice nearby 1.3018 forming a double bottom pattern with the neckline resides at 1.3054. Today, the price broke above the neckline however, rebounded at the high end of the current trading zone mentioned above.

If the price remains above the neckline, it may test again the high end eyeing the July 11 high at 1.3091. The pair could see more bullishness if breaks above the weekly resistance at 1.3103, see the chart to find out where this rally might end with the significant level the price needs to clear.

On the other hand, a break below the 1.3000 handle may send the pair towards1.2976 although, the weekly support marked on the chart needs to be considered. See the chart to find out more about the key support levels the sellers need to monitor if the price continues to fall.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


Gold Price Wedge Suggests Higher Soon, Silver Gunning for Breakout

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

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Gold Price/Silver Technical Outlook:

  • Gold price building near-term wedge after macro-wedge breakout
  • Silver trying to rise out of long-term wedge

For forecasts, educational content, and more, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Gold price building near-term wedge after macro-wedge breakout

Last month, gold price exploded out of a wedge formation dating back several years. This put the precious metal in good position to rally much higher, with a measured move target approaching the 1700 level. This will of course take time, but the path of least resistance is higher for as long as the breakout holds.

With that in mind, trading bullish set-ups in the shorter-term could yield good results if macro forces are to remain constructive. Currently, gold is nearing the end of a developing wedge that has been building since the last week of June.

A breakout above the top-side trend-line of the pattern and 1427 should have gold rolling again. In the event of a breakout the next targeted level will be a minor level of resistance created in 2013 around the 1488 level, with more significant resistance from 1522 up to around 1540.

The wedge needs to break, first, though, before getting too geared up for higher prices. A downside resolution or false breakdown before jamming higher, could develop. In the event of a breakdown, given the proximity of the top of the macro-wedge, it may not pay (poor risk/reward) to run with a short. In the event of a false breakdown (a common occurrence for wedges), then once price recoups back above the top-side trend-line of the pattern, then a bullish bias will reassert itself.

Gold Price Weekly Chart (strong wedge-break)

Gold Price Wedge Suggests Higher Soon, Silver Gunning for Breakout

Gold Price Daily Chart (wedging up in near-term)

Gold Price Wedge Suggests Higher Soon, Silver Gunning for Breakout

Silver trying to rise out of long-term wedge

Silver has been playing catch-up with gold in recent sessions. While gold consolidates in the near-term silver is trying to break the trend-line from July 2016 that makes up the top of a long-term wedge pattern. A weekly close above the top-side t-line will gear up silver for a sustained move higher along with its big sibling. If price fails back below by Friday, then a neutral bias will remain. In any event, if gold is to maintain its big-picture breakout, then silver will start to offer good-looking bullish set-ups at some point.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how changes in trader positioning can help signal the next price move in gold and other major markets and currencies.

Silver Price Weekly Chart (trying to break top of wedge formation)

Gold Price Wedge Suggests Higher Soon, Silver Gunning for Breakout

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


ASX 200 Looks Consolidative But Record Highs Remain Within Reach

Financial markets, economics, journalism and fundamental analysis.

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ASX 200 Technical Analysis Talking Points:

  • The index remains supported but below its all-time top
  • A serious reversal looks unlikely against the global monetary backdrop
  • That said solid support may be some way below the current market

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page.

The ASX 200 remains well within its 2019 uptrend channel, with record peaks from 2007 still clearly in sight.

ASX 200, Daily Chart

Incidentally the monthly chart uptrend going all the way back to early 2009 also looks very secure.

Fundamentally the index has been underpinned in recent times by the impetus given to stock markets around the world by a US Federal Reserve apparently well prepared to lower interest rates. For its part the Reserve Bank of Australia has already cut its own benchmark lending rates twice in as many months.

The relative weakness of the Australian Dollar has also raised the attractions of local stocks to foreign investors.

Technically it is perhaps notable that that long upward channel has not seen a serious test of its upper boundary since early March, but that fact has clearly not stood in the way of bullish progress.

Still the index has wilted in the last week or so, albeit not to any great extent. Solid near-term support is quite tough to spot at such elevated levels. The first, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s rise doesn’t come in until 6489. That’s 170 points or so below the current market and certainly is not under immediate threat even if that gap bears close watching.

The index does appear to have crept back into a range between 6701 and 6608. That previously bounded trade between June 19 and July 3 and a break of that lower limit on a daily or weekly closing basis could be a sign that the bulls are going to have to work harder to push the ASX higher.

There’s probably support below that in the 6500 region, where a notable top was made in early May. However, if the index gets down as far as that then it’s likely that a more obvious reversal is in play with focus likely to come fairly quickly onto that first retracement point.

Still, there are few signs that this year’s rally is in serious trouble yet and indeed it could well be juiced quite soon by those lower US interest rates. In that case the all-time highs will remain a realistic bullish target.

ASX 200 Resources For Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!


Crude Oil Price Probes One-Week High as Sellers Step Back

Fundamental analysis and financial markets.

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Crude Oil Price Chart and Analysis:

  • Crude oil pulls-back but the move is running out of steam.
  • New drivers needed for the next move.

The Brand New DailyFX Q2 2019 Trading Forecast and Guides are Available to Download Now!!

How to Trade Oil: Crude Oil Trading Strategies & Tips.

Crude Oil Needs a New Driver to Continue Pushing Higher

The latest, muted, push-back in the price of crude oil has seen black gold touch a fresh one-week high in thin trade. Crude is now at the bottom of a zone characterized by two sharp sell-off candles, the body of the recent move from the top of the reversal doji (May 28) at $69.40/bbl. to the five-month low (June 5) at $59.22/bbl. The top of this zone also cuts across the 200-day moving average and sits just above 50% Fibonacci retracement at $65.60/bbl. A push back above this zone is likely to need a strong impulse to drive the move.

If this zone is respected, and oil fails to close above $62.75/bbl. then bears may re-test 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $60.63/bbl. before testing sub-$60/bbl. and the recent low. The recent up-tick has taken oil out of heavily oversold territory, but the current level still indicates weakness.

WTI vs Brent: Top 5 Differences Between WTI and Brent Crude Oil

Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (September 2018 – June 7, 2019)

Crude Oil Price Probes One-Week High as Sellers Step Back

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on crude oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.


CAC 40 Double Tops at Channel Line

Swing trading, chart patterns, breakouts, and Elliott wave.

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Talking Points

  • CAC 40 carves a double top pattern
  • Elliott Wave pattern could not push beyond the mid-line of the Elliott Wave channel
  • Bears are activated on a move below channel support near 5200

The Elliott Wave pattern on CAC 40 is intriguing. CAC 40 appears to have finished the five wave impulse move at the Elliott Wave channel mid-line. This implies a weak market and is a bearish pattern.

This pattern suggests that a longer term correction is underway. The first battle of support emerges near 5,200 where the blue Elliott Wave support channel emerges as well as the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud.

Interested in learning more about Elliott Wave and Ichimoku? Grab the beginner and advanced Elliott Wave guide as well as the Ichimoku guide.

CAC 40 Elliott Wave and Ichimoku Pattern

CAC 40 Double Tops at Channel Line

Created using IG Charts

Any near term bulls would need to show themselves in CAC 40 near 5,200. If this level breaks, then the door is opened up to 4,900-5,000. We have two different levels appearing there.

First, the previous wave ‘iv’ extreme is near 5,000. Previous fourth waves tend to act like a magnet in corrective moves.

Secondly, the 38% retracement of the June 2016 (Brexit) low to the November 1, 2017 highs appears near 4,921.

Therefore, if 5,200 breaks, traders can look for further weakness down towards the 4,900-5,000 price zone.

Lower potential exists, but we will need to see the structure of how the correction develops to weigh the odds further.

Why do traders lose money? Find out in our Traits of Successful Traders Research.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M

Jeremy is a Certified Elliott Wave analyst with a Master’s designation. This report is intended to help break down the patterns according to Elliott Wave theory.

Discuss this market with Jeremy in Monday’s US Opening Bell webinar.

Follow on twitter @JWagnerFXTrader .

Join Jeremy’s distribution list.

Other Elliott Wave forecasts by Jeremy:

GBP/USD Hanging Over the Edge of a Cliff

AUDUSD technical forecast hints at the market searching for a bottom.

Short term EURUSD Pattern Hints at Bounce to 1.17.

USD/CAD dives 200 pips, will it continue?

Gold price forecast points towards lower levels.

Crude oil prices reach highest level since July 2015.

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Temporary Relief Rallies

USD/JPY : A Bird in the Hand is Better Than Two in the Bush


US Dollar Chart Looks Geared Up for Higher Prices

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

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USD Technical Highlights:

  • US Dollar Index (DXY) undergoing narrowing price action
  • Resolution appears skewed towards a bullish outcome

To see what fundamental drivers and technical signposts DailyFX analysts are watching, check out the Q2 forecasts for various markets on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

US Dollar Index (DXY) undergoing narrowing price action

The US Dollar Index is undergoing a congestion phase that is marked by a contraction in price action that should soon lead to a burst in one direction or the other. With support having come in on a couple of occasions (June/July) right around the 200-day, and the most recent test creating what looks to be a higher-low from the June low, the contraction appears poised to lead to an upside breakout.

The triangle formation on the 4-hr time-frame is clear, all that is needed for a bullish outcome is a firm breakout of the pattern and above the 7/9 high at 9759. A break above this threshold should at least give the DXY enough of a boost to run into the April/May highs before again possibly finding trouble around the 9830 mark.

In the event of a breakdown below the under-side trend-line of the triangle pattern, a break below 9672 could have the USD index rolling back downhill towards support in the 9580s. The bearish scenario is seen as the lesser probable, but can’t be ruled out which is why it is prudent to wait for one side of the market to confirm by breaking noted levels.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart (general tilt is higher)

US Dollar Chart Looks Geared Up for Higher Prices

US Dollar Index (DXY) 4-hr Chart (price action triangulating)

US Dollar Chart Looks Geared Up for Higher Prices

Forex & CFD Trader Resources

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Three Month Highs to Set Bullish Breakout

Price action and Macro.

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Talking Points:

- USD/CHF resisted off of a key area again this morning. Should USD-strength continue, a bullish move over this resistance level can open the door to breakout strategies in Swissy.

- While USD weakness continued well into this month, USD/CHF has been range-bound since July, deductively highlighting a relatively weak Swiss Franc that could become attractive for continuation should USD-strength continue to show.

- Want to see how USD has held up to the DailyFX Forecasts? Click here for full access.

To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here

The U.S. Dollar has had a rather rough 2017. In a down-trend that’s seen as much as -12.3% of the U.S. Dollar’s value erased, even while the Fed talks up additional rate hikes, few currencies have been able to keep pace with the Greenback’s declines. After coming into the year trading above the 1.0300 level, USD/CHF has seen as much as 925 pips taken-out as the pair has driven-lower.

But after running into support in mid-July around the .9433 level (the 2016 low), the declines have slowed as USD/CHF has built into a rather volatile range-bound pattern. Resistance has begun to build around the .9773 level, and we’ve seen multiple iterations of resistance show-up here; each rebuking USD/CHF’s upward advance.

USD/CHF Daily: Range-Bound Since Re-Test of 2016 Low

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Three Month Highs to Set Bullish Breakout

Chart prepared by James Stanley

At this point, a top-side break of that well-worn resistance level could open the door to an attractive bullish breakout setup. Just above this area of resistance is another level of interest at .9813, as this is a prior swing-low point of support that also showed as a quick swing-high before the pair initially sank below .9770. This can be used in a couple of different ways. For traders looking at the more aggressive route of taking on bullish exposure on a break of .9775 (a few pips beyond the exact point of resistance), the level at .9813 can be utilized as an initial target and an opportunity to move the initial stop up to breakeven. Or, for those who want to approach USD/CHF a bit more conservatively, the .9813 level can be used to trigger the bullish breakout, with .9772 becoming an area to look to for stop placement in the effort of containing risk in the event that the breakout doesn’t continue-higher.

On the chart below, we’ve added five potential resistance levels above the .9813 inflection point, each of which has been derived from a prior price action swing and/or group of swings. Each of these can be used as potential targets should the bullish breakout continue if/when resistance is taken out.

USD/CHF Four-Hour: Potential Top-Side Resistance Levels Applied

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Three Month Highs to Set Bullish Breakout

Chart prepared by James Stanley

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis: Double Top Forming Below 0.7050?

Fundamental analysis, economic and market themes.

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AUDUSD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH

  • AUDUSD hints at double top with Bearish Engulfing candle pattern
  • Confirming longer-term reversal calls for one-month trendlinebreak
  • July’s swing top near 0.7050 continues to mark immediate resistance

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The Australian Dollar tried its luck on the upside once again. Last week’s attempt at bearish reversal was cut short above the 0.69 figure and followed by a retest of downward-sloping trend resistance capping gains since early December 2018. Sellers might yet prevail however as the appearance of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern hints a Double Top reversal is in the works.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Zooming in to the four-hour chart appears to bolster the case for a downside scenario. Prices have demonstrably breached support defining the upswing from last week’s bottom, signaling that the move has been exhausted. Near-term support is holding back a deeper selloff thus far however, warning that the case for a reversal rather than mere consolidation is as-yet unconfirmed.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - 4 hour

Breaking the broader upward trajectory established along swing lows over the past month seems like it would be a more convincing indicator of downward follow-through. That would amount to clearing the block of back-to-back support levels in the 0.6934-53 zone. Several minor inflection points aside, achieving such a break probably sets the stage to challenge the pivotal January 2016 bottom at 0.6827.

AUDUSD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter


FTSE 100 Outlook – Battle at Resistance Could Soon End in Higher Prices

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FTSE 100 Technical Highlights:

  • FTSE 100 trading at trend-line off record high
  • Price action suggests it may break on through soon

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FTSE 100 trading at trend-line off record high

The FTSE 100 is currently trading at the trend-line running lower off the record high created over a year ago, resistance that has kept a lid on price rising the past few sessions. The consolidating nature of recent price action suggests we will soon see a breakout.

A close above 7469 will help cement a breakout and have the FTSE moving on towards the next row of resistance; 7528/552 will be next up to overcome, followed by 7600+. But resistance is resistance until it’s not even if price action is generally favorable for a breakout. A close above is the key.

In the event we see a downturn through yesterday’s low at 7373, then selling may increases as the consolidation phase begins to get compromised. The next level of support in the event of selling will be 7316, followed by the trend-line from December if things begin to accelerate.

All-in-all, things are looking up for the FTSE, we just need to see a breakout develop first.

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FTSE Daily Chart (consolidating below t-line)

FTSE 100 Outlook – Battle at Resistance Could Soon End in Higher Prices

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Japanese Yen Gains Put Downside USD/JPY Range Break On Cards

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Japanese Yen Technical Analysis Talking Points:

  • Fed has given many currencies a lift against the US Dollar
  • USDJPY has retreated toward its near-term range base
  • GBPJPY remains strongly biased lower too

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The Japanese Yen has begun to gain again on the US Dollar once more, with the Federal Reserve’s apparent willingness to keep interest rate cuts on the table, despite last week’s good news from the labor market, providing the fundamental backdrop for this latest bout of Greenback weakness.

Technically, USDJPY’s short-term daily chart bias would appear to be to the downside too, if not quite conclusively yet. The pair is flirting with a break of a quite well-respected uptrend line which has so far market the bounce seen from the effective 2019 lows reached in late June.

US Dollar Vs Japanese Yen, Daily Chart

Clearly a daily or weekly close below that line looks highly likely at this point and, unless Dollar bulls can reassert themselves, the base of the current trading range looks set for a revisit. That comes in at 108.80 and its hard to see any conclusive falls below that failing to retest the year’s low, probably quite quickly.

The range top at 108.98 provides those Dollar bulls with their most obvious upside target, but they would probably need to consolidate in that region before they could dare to dream of retaking all of the sharp falls seen on May 31. The pair would need to rise back to 109.60 if it is to fully erase them. That looks like a tall order.

A rather similar situation appears to be playing out in GBPJPY, although in that case the bias lower seems more obvious.

It’s difficult to discern how much current trading action is merely pass-through from pairs such as USDJPY and EURGBP and how much stems from the UK’s fundamental, home-grown Brexit and associated political turmoil.

In any case, GBPJPY is already back to its effective lows for the year, if the sudden, quickly corrected fall of January 2 is discounted.

British Pound Vs Japanese Yen, Daily Chart

The cross has been headed lower since making its highs for the year so far back in March. The current downtrend channel is a little shallower in gradient than its predecessor but no less persistent for that. A sustained slide from current levels could see its base face another retest. That comes in at 133.77.

Japanese Yen Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

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