Analyst Picks

Ilya Spivak , Sr. Currency Strategist

My Picks:  Long USD/CAD at 1.3308
Expertise:  Global Macro
Average Time Frame of Trades:  1-6 months

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Talking Points:

  • USD/CAD Strategy: Long at 1.3308
  • Prices break near-term down trend, hint dominant trajectory back in play
  • Long position activated, aiming for an initial push to test above 1.34 figure

The US Dollar looks to be resuming the long-term uptrend against Canadian counterpart after putting in the largest daily advance in seven months. Prices have now broke the series of lower highs and lows guiding the pullback since late January, suggesting the time may have turned in the bulls’ favor.

From here, a daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.3451 opens the door for at test of the 50% level at 1.3585. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% Fib at 1.3284 paves the way for another challenge of the 14.6% expansion at 1.3182.

Risk/reward parameters appear acceptable and a long position has been activated at 1.3308, initially targeting 1.3451. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close below 1.3284.Half of the trade will be closed and the stop moved to breakeven once the first objective is reached.

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USD/CAD Strategy: Buyers Take Aim Above 1.34 Figure
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Michael Boutros , Currency Strategist

My Picks:  Near-term Setups in AUD/USD, USD/CAD & EUR/USD
Expertise:  Short-term Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades:  1-3Days

AUD/USD 240min

AUDUSD 240min Chart

I’ll be on the lookout for exhaustion / possible short-entries in Aussie heading into structural resistance at the upper median-line parallel, currently around ~7600. This level is backed closely by the 11/9 daily reversal close / 76.4% retracement at 7630/32- both levels of interest. Interim support & near-term bullish invalidation rests with the weekly open at 7480.

USD/CAD: The BoC inspired rally has fueled a technically significant advance. Heading into Canada CPI tomorrow we could see some pullback, but weakness is to be viewed as an opportunity to while above 1.3180. Levels highlighted in today’s USDCAD technical update.

EUR/USD: Euro turned just ahead of key confluence support noted earlier in the week at 1.0575. Heading into next week, while the immediate risk is for a move lower I’ll be looking for a pullback to offer favorable long-entries while above the monthly open at 1.0516/18. Review Latest EURUSD Update (1/18)

Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 1Q Projections

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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Walker England , Forex Trading Instructor

My Picks:  USDJPY Bullish Breakout
Expertise:  Technical Analysis
Average Time Frame of Trades:  1Day-1Week

Market Condition: USD/JPY Bullish Breakout

Target 1: 116.40

Target 2: 117.40

USD/JPY, 1Hour Trend with Trendline Breakout

USD/JPY Trendline Breakout

(Created Using TradingView Charts)

The USD/JPY has broken out above a short term trendline, pushing the pair back in the direction of its primary daily trend. For reference, the trendline as depicted above has been created by connecting a series of lower highs starting with the standing 2017 high at 118.61. This line was previously acting as a value of resistance, but may now be seen as a point of support. As long as the USD/JPY remains above this point, traders may elect to initiate new positions with the trend.

In the event of a false breakout traders will first see prices retreat back under the drawn trendline. Traders may elect to close any buy based positions at this point, but more conservative traders may elect to manage risk below the pair’s previous swing low at 114.40. In this bearish scenario, the USD/JPY would be putting in new lower lows, which would suggest an end to the markets current bullish momentum.

--- Written by Walker, Analyst for

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Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M , Head Forex Trading Instructor

My Picks:  Short USD/CAD
Expertise:  Elliott Wave, Technical Analysis
Average Time Frame of Trades:  Greater than 1 week

USD/CAD is not waiting for the Bank of Canada to talk more about its monetary policy. USD/CAD is breaking down below some important technical levels suggesting further weakness.

Since May 2016, USD/CAD has been contained inside an upward sloping trend channel. That trend channel broke last week and prices immediately began to pressure the 200-day simple moving average.

Then, on January 12, prices temporarily broke below the moving average before popping back above it. This price action is suggesting some weakness on the horizon. Therefore, we will sell into continued weakness on technical breakdowns.

Today’s low of 1.3019 offers a starting point for a technical break down.

From an Elliott wave perspective, we think a break down has room to fall. The correction from Jan 2016 to May 2016 was an impulsive move to start a trend. That price action suggests we can anticipate another correction of similar size to the January-May correction…or nearly 2,200 pips.

Therefore, our initial target on a successful break lower is near 1.22 with a secondary target near 1.14.

For more information on trading with Elliott Wave, grab a copy of the beginner and advanced EW guide here.

If you wish to join Jeremy in his US Opening Bell webinars to discuss this market, register and join here.

USD/CAD Pressures Support Prior to BOC Rate Decision

Created using TradingView

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor, DailyFX EDU

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Jamie Saettele, CMT , Sr. Technical Strategist

My Picks:  Neutral USD/SEK (previously bearish)
Expertise:  Technical
Average Time Frame of Trades:  Swing

At the end of November, I turned bearish USD/SEK (see here) and remarked that "I'm looking towards the April high of 8.8850". 8.9000 was reached today and a trendline support is just under the market. I'm not bullish but I'd like to step aside and see how things shake out at what is clearly an important technical level before expressing a view again.


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