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US Dollar May Rise as Worried Markets Search For Safe Harbor

Fundamental analysis, economic and market themes.

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US DOLLAR FORECAST: NEUTRAL

  • US Dollar impressively resilient despite increasingly dovish Fed
  • Markets may be ready to consider why policy easing approaches
  • Defensive repositioning might boost haven US Dollar demand

See the latest US Dollar technical and fundamental forecast to find out what will drive prices in Q3!

Financial markets were treated to about as dovish of a Federal Reserve as they could hope for last week. Comments from Chair Powell in biannual Congressional testimony as well as the text of minutes from June’s meeting of the policy-setting FOMC committee appeared to confirm that at least some easing is imminent. The US Dollar dutifully fell alongside bond yields.

US DOLLAR RESILIENT DESPITE INCREASINGLY DOVISH FED

The magnitude of the move was tellingly modest however. The Greenback edged down toward the middle of the range it has traced out since late May against a basket of its major counterparts (Euro, Yen, Pound and Aussie Dollar), but nothing more. In fact, the overall uptrend from late-February lows remains conspicuously intact. That’s quite impressive since markets now favor three 25bps rate cuts before year-end.

An obvious question follows: how much more room does USD have to fall? Indeed, it is possible that markets have priced in about as much stimulus as could be reasonably expected, and probably more. Three cuts along with the unwind of the QT balance sheet reduction effort – all before the calendar turns to 2020 – amounts to a lot of accommodation in a hurry. There may not be scope to price in significantly more.

Meanwhile, there seems to be a clear disconnect between the markets’ reaction to the likelihood of monetary policy support and the reasons for it. Investors seem all too happy to celebrate the former without much thought about the latter. Were they to consider that the Fed’s defensive posture reflects an increasingly ominous slowdown in global growth, their rosy disposition might soon sour.

RISK AVERSION MAY BOOST HAVEN US DOLLAR DEMAND

The week ahead brings ample opportunities for a rethink. US retail sales and Chinese GDP data are expected to show slowdown, highlighting the damaging effects of the trade war between the world’s top two economies. Chair Powell is also due to speak again – this time at the Bank of France – and seems likely to sound the alarm anew. The Beige Book survey of regional US growth conditions may also be worrying.

On the geopolitical front, the G7 group of finance ministers will meet to discuss the deteriorating global outlook and the UK will probably say that Brexit-at-all-costs enthusiast Boris Johnson will be its next prime minister. As if that were not enough, a steady stream of second-quarter corporate earnings reports will give the world’s top companies an opportunity to worry aloud about broadening malaise worldwide.

Pondering such things has led to markets to price in an ever-larger Fed rescue effort, which has underpinned sentiment in recent weeks. Once they’ve run out of room to continue, an impetus to de-risk portfolios may begin to take center stage as the dominant driver of market-wide price action. This process is likely to put an outsized premium on liquidity, and on this score the US Dollar is unrivaled.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

US DOLLAR TRADING RESOURCES



Q3’19 Euro Forecast Sees Economic, Political Uncertainties Back on the Rise

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Political Pressure is on the Rise Again

There are two significant political issues in play for the Euro at present time that will garner more attention over the coming weeks and months. First, how does the relationship between Italy and Brussels evolve? The Italian government continues to be a thorn in the side of pan-European policymakers (especially as concerns grow that its new debt offering could be akin to a parallel currency to the Euro) and will likely stymy any significant fiscal policy changes. Second, will the EU revoke Switzerland’s preferential treatment for its stock exchanges? There could be ramifications for Brexit (e.g. the EU won’t treat the UK different than it treats Switzerland and vice-versa).

The next president of the European Central Bank will be decided in the coming months. Outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi has a complicated history in office, having saved the Euro from dissolution but failing to get the Eurozone over the low growth hurdle in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. Politics is very much in play here, with French President Emmanuel Macron clearly lobbying against former German central banker Axel Weber, going so far as to extend an olive branch to noted hawk and Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann (a key opponent to QE and low rates in years past; he has since recanted those views). Read the full preview on the next ECB president.

Euro Technical Outlook Inconclusive

Euro technical positioning looks inconclusive at the mid-year mark. Breaking above resistance at the top of a bullish Falling Wedge chart formation on the bellwether EURUSD exchange rate offered a brief glimmer of hope for an upside reversal, but follow-through failed to materialize. The pair swiftly slumped back below the boundaries of the breakout, settling into a choppy range.the monthly chart offers a stark reminder that any such moves will probably prove to be short-lived. It puts prices within the bounds of a well-defined, structural downtrend guiding EURUSD

lower for over a decade. The latest leg of the decline was apparently triggered in October 2018 with a break below range top resistance-turned-support dating back to the first half of 2015.

EUR/USD Price Chart: Monthly Timeframe

EURUSD

This barrier has been recast as resistance in the 1.1449-1.1554 area once again. The next big layer of support is in the 1.0459-1.0563 zone. Prices spent nearly two years oscillating between these thresholds previously, so seeing more of the same here now is not terribly surprising. Still, it would take truly explosive gains bringing prices well north of 1.20 to make the case for true bullish trend change.



Yen Supported by Two Huge Uncertainties; USDJPY Downtrend May Extend

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Havens Still Required

The Japanese Yen has headed into a new calendar quarter on a high note, with its customary haven role underscoring demand which has brought USD/JPY down to its 2019 lows.

The currency has been supported by a range of economic uncertainties, of which two loom the largest. The first is the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China. There has been some cooling of rhetoric on this subject from both sides as May has slipped into June. A durable settlement clearly remains elusive, but any headlines suggesting that such an end is being actively and amicably sought could well see risk appetite revive, probably to the detriment of the Yen.

To read the full Japanese Yen Forecast, download the free guide from the DailyFX Trading Guides page

USDJPY

Technical Analysis: USDJPY Downtrend May Extend into Third Quarter

In the second quarter USDJPY technical forecast, I outlined a couple of brewing bullish and bearish candlestick formations that might have defined the outlook for months to come. At the time, price action hinted that the more likely scenario would be a resumption of the dominant downtrend from 2015. Heading into the third quarter of 2019, that is looking to be the more likely outcome.

To read the full Japanese Yen Forecast, download the free guide from the DailyFX Trading Guides page

USD/JPY Monthly Chart

USDJPY


British Pound Q3 Forecast: Sterling Fundamentals - Volatility Set to Rise as Brexit D-Day Nears

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Sterling (GBP) is likely to become more volatile as the clock ticks down to the latest Brexit deadline - October 31st – with both sides becoming increasingly weary and frustrated at the continued ‘cankicking’ exercise. Against this backdrop, Sterling is likely to become more volatile, a boon for traders who have had to sit back and watch most Sterling pairs trade in relatively restricted ranges over the past three months.

GBP

Chart prepared by Nick Cawley

Sterling Q3 Technical Analysis: GBPUSD: Holding Flash Crash Trendline Support

Losses persisted for GBPUSD after failing to consolidate above the 1.3000 handle. Although, at the back end of Q2, the pair had managed to find stability above 1.2500, which also coincided with the rising trendline stemming from the October 2016 flash crash. While the pair may have found a floor at 1.2500 in the near-term, momentum indicators on the longer-term timeframes (weekly & monthly) remain tilted towards a bearish bias, thus a retest of 1.2500 cannot be ruled out, particularly if a closing break below the key trendline was made, which would expose the 1.2426 January low.

GBP

Chart prepared by Justin McQueen

To read the full British Pound Forecast, download the free guide from the DailyFX Trading Guides page



Gold Prices Target 2019 High as Fed Sets Course to Cut Interest Rates

Central bank policy, economic indicators, and market events.

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XAUUSD

Gold Price Talking Points

Fresh data prints coming out of the US economy may do little to curb the near-term advance in the price of gold as the Federal Reserve appears to be on a preset course to reduce the benchmark interest rate.

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bullish

Gold prices look poised to test the 2019-high ($1439) following the semi-annual testimony with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powellprepares US lawmakers for an imminent shift in monetary policy.

The prepared remarks suggest the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will respond to the shift in trade policy as Chairman Powell warns that “uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook.”

Moreover, it seems as though the FOMC will continue to adjust the forward guidance over the coming months as President Donald Trump tweets “China is letting us down,” and the ongoing tensions may push the Fed to reverse the four rate hikes from 2018 as the “apparent progress on trade turned to greater uncertainty.”

FED

With that said, updates to the US Retail Sales report is likely to have a limited impact on the monetary policy outlook even though private sector spending is expected to increase 0.2% in June as Fed Fund futures continue to highlight a 100% probability for at least a 25bp rate cut on July 31.

It remains to be seen if the Federal Reserve will implement a rate easing cycle as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a 2019-voting member on the FOMC, endorses an “insurance cut,” but the preset course for monetary policy may ultimately hinder the central bank’s flexibility as the US economy shows little signs of a looming recession.

In turn, gold prices may continue to benefit from the current environment amid the threat of a policy error, and the price of bullion may exhibit a more bullish behavior over the remainder of the year as market participants look for an alternative to fiat currencies.

Gold Price Daily Chart

XAUUSD

The broader outlook for gold is no longer mired by a head-and-shoulders formation as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) break out of the bearish trends from earlier this year.

At the same time, the recent pullback in bullion appears to have run its course as the Fibonacci overlap around $1380 (100% expansion) to $1385 (78.6% expansion) offers support but need a move back above the $1418 (100% expansion) to $1422 (23.6% expansion) region to bring the topside targets back on the radar.

First area of interest comes in around $1444 (161.8% expansion) to $1448 (38.2% retracement) followed by the $1457 (100% expansion) region.

Additional Trading Resources

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 3Q 2019 Forecast for Gold

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.



Canadian Dollar May Be Torn Between Upbeat Local and US Econ Data

Classic technical analysis, macro and economic themes.

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CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

  • Canadian Dollar gained as relatively dovish Fed boosted stocks and crude oil prices
  • Focus next week shifts to economic data with US-China trade deal pushed back for now
  • Both local and US economic data may beat estimates, S&P 500 might struggle to rise

Have a question about what’s in store for Canadian Dollar next week? Join a DailyFX Trading Q&A Webinar to ask it live!

The Canadian Dollar rose this past week as a relatively dovish Fed sunk the US Dollar, boosted stocks and crude oil prices. At home, the Loonie didn’t spend much time noticing a better-than-expected GDP report. Despite the beat in the YoY rate for November 2018 (1.7% versus 1.6% expected), growth was at its slowest in two years. The MoM one contracted 0.1% which was in-line with estimates.

Probabilities of a Bank of Canada hike simultaneously dropped after the cautious tone from the FOMC meeting. Overnight index swaps were pricing in a 15.9% chance of a BoC hike by July 2019, down from almost 40% confidence at the beginning of this past week. Yet, the Loonie still stood relatively strong, which speaks directly to what it was focusing in the interim: sentiment.

There has been a noticeably strong inverse correlation between USD/CAD and both the S&P 500 and crude oil since October. The latter two have spent most of January recovering as markets grew doubtful of a hawkish Federal Reserve and optimistic about a deal between the US and China to end the trade war. With an outcome on the latter being pushed back for the “near future”, the focus shifts to economic data.

After all, both the Fed and the BoC are quite data-dependent and arguably the most hawkish of the major central banks (albeit that has diminished somewhat as of late). Next week contains Canadian employment data. Economic statistics out of the country has been tending to outperform relative to economists’ expectations, opening the door to an upside surprise.

The same also holds true in the United States. As such, the first estimate of Q4 GDP and PCE core (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) may also surprise better. With that in mind, the Canadian Dollar fundamental forecast will look neutral. On a side note, the S&P 500 and market sentiment could be running out of room to keep rallying which may reverse gains in oil prices and bode ill for CAD down the road.

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecasts:

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar Could Wilt If Focus Returns To Interest Rates



Australian Dollar Faces Busy Week, But Probably No Game Changer

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Australian Dollar Faces Busy Week, But Probably No Game Changer

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • AUD/USD gained on a more dovish Fed, but its own low interest rates still weigh on it
  • There are signs that those back to back RBA rate cuts aren’t helping much
  • This week will bring more clues

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar market was focused like all others on the Federal Reserve last week, but the currency was unable to capitalize much on apparently intact prospects for lower US interest rates.

The Aussie remains quite close to its lows for the year against the Greenback, having itself endured the first back-to-back monthly rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia since 2012. One problem is that this action doesn’t seem to be having the desired effect. Westpac’s consumer confidence index hit a two-year low in July, despite those rate cuts, the passage of a huge tax cut through parliament and signs of stabilization in the key housing markets of Sydney and Melbourne.

The coming week will bring three obvious scheduled points of economic interest. Investors will get a look at the minutes of that last RBA policy meeting. As a trading opportunity this could go either way, annoyingly. For sure a rate cut was delivered but the central bank has been notably cautious about the likely boost provided by lower rates now, given that consumers have been dealing with a series of record-low borrowing costs since 2012. If there’s more musing of this sort the Aussie might get some support.

Thursday will bring official employment statistics, with continued strength here very likely to please Aussie bulls. This metric has always been key to RBA thinking, naturally, but the central bank has placed special emphasis on it in the last couple of months. Ongoing strength in job creation will likely see rate cut bets pared.

Official Chinese Gross Domestic Product figures for the fourth quarter are also due, so Monday could see the Australian Dollar in its sometime role as foreign exchange’s favorite liquid China proxy. This might be less good news for the bulls as trade friction with the US is expected to bite. Annualized growth is expected to be around 6.2%. That would be a thirty-year low. Still, that forecast has been in the market for sometime and may very well already be in the price too.

Given all of the above and the fact that overall focus is likely to remain firmly on how the market thinks about US monetary policy at any given time, next week looks as it if could see plenty of movement in AUDUSD, but perhaps not enough in either direction to change the game.

Therefore, it’s got to be a neutral call overall, but with no break likely yet in the pair’s overall downward bias.

AUDUSD

Australian Dollar Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!



NZD/USD Looks Vulnerable. How Dovish Will the RBNZ Turn Next Week?

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NZD

New Zealand Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Bearish

  • New Zealand Dollar depreciated as sentiment soured, jobs report boosted RBNZ rate cut bets
  • Next week contains first RBNZ rate decision since November, much has happened since then
  • The RBNZmay echo dovishness and concerns from other central banks, but by how much?

We just released our 4Q forecast for equities, which may impact NZD, in the DailyFX Trading Guides page

The pro-risk New Zealand Dollar turned lower last week along with a downturn in sentiment which saw the Dow Jones Industrial produce a bearish reversal pattern. Pessimism in markets occurred with worrying news regarding the US-China trade war front. US President Donald Trump noted that it is unlikely he will be meeting China’s President, Xi Jinping, before a deadline which – if passed - could trigger an increase in tariffs (March 1).

Arguably, the largest contributor to the decline in NZD/USD was a disappointing local jobs report however. The unemployment rate shot higher from 3.9% to 4.3% in Q4 2018 while the country added jobs at the slowest pace since Q1 2016. Looking at the chart below, RBNZ rate cut bets increased as the New Zealand Dollar weakened.

nzdusd

With that in mind, all eyes next week will be on the first Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision since November. A lot has happened since then. Most notably, the majority of developed central banks downgraded their views regarding economic projections. The most sudden shift to a more dovish stance came from the Fed as it went from expecting three hikes this year to perhaps none at all.

Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of Australia still held on to its neutral outlook on rates which initially boosted the Australian Dollar. However, Governor Philip Lowe then noted that they are no longer favoring a hike as their next move. This sent the Aussie Dollar collapsing and gives us a rather good idea of what could happen in the week ahead.

Unlike the RBA, the RBNZ has a more balanced view on monetary policy in the first place. Governor Adrian Orr noted back in November that they are not taking cuts off the table. He also noted that they envisioned rates rising perhaps in the third quarter of 2020 as it raised inflation expectations. With that in mind, the question here is how dovish will the RBNZ appear relative to expectations?

Overnight index swaps are pricing in about a 42% chance of a cut as soon as June 2019. If the central bank downgrades their economic projections but still surprises markets with leaving the door open to a hike, it could end up boosting the New Zealand Dollar. This is like what we saw with the Bank of England this past week. Keep in mind that Mr. Orr will then speak an hour after the interest rate decision. Cautious commentary that echoes the dovishness from other central banks could add weakness to Kiwi Dollar, making for a volatile day.

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Could Take Some Rest On The Road Lower



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