News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here:
  • Bitcoin (BTC) started the day on the front foot on the Twitter news before the latest China crypto ban hammered the market lower. Get your weekly crypto forecast from @nickcawley1 here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • The US Dollar continues to push higher against ASEAN currencies after the FOMC rate decision. This leaves the USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR outlook mostly tilted higher. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The Japanese Yen remains in focus with strength potential on risk aversion themes to go along with weakness on themes around higher rates. Get your weekly $JPY technical forecast from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Google finance-related search interest in 'Evergrande' has almost overtaken 'Covid'. 'Taper' doesn't even register on the scale
  • Gold prices gain as potential systemic risks out of China's Evergrande Group roil broader markets. Meanwhile, iron ore is ticking higher after a big drop on Monday as China steps up steelmaking curbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • Gold remains higher despite positive Evergrande news out of China. Meanwhile, copper bulls are pushing prices upward as the potential for a housing crisis in China ebbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Is a Brexit Breakthrough Imminent?

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Is a Brexit Breakthrough Imminent?

Justin McQueen, Strategist


  • GBP/USD at 1.35
  • Is Brexit Breakthrough Near?
  • How Much GBP Upside is Left?

GBP/USD at 1.35: Another week passes by, another week closer to the end of the transition period and still no agreement has been reached between the EU and UK. That said, as market participants await the outcome of negotiations ahead of the EU Summit, this has not stopped GBP/USD pricing in trade deal as the pair hit a 1yr high at 1.3500. Although, it is worth noting the weaker USD narrative has also been at play for GBP/USD.

Is a Brexit Breakthrough Near?: While progress has appears to have been made, the three key issues surrounding fisheries, governance and level playing field are yet to be resolved. Although, there have been signs of movement from the UK on the level playing field, according to Politico. As such, there is a sense that this could allow for France to back down on demands over fishing access and thus paving the way for an agreement. As it stands, talks are expected to spill over into the weekend, raising gap risk for GBP pairs. Therefore, with headline risk elevated for GBP, it would be prudent to be nimble and to remain disciplined.

For a comprehensive look at trading discipline, check out the traders guide to trading psychology

How Much GBP Upside is Left?: If you had ask analysts just a few weeks ago where GBP/USD could go on the back of a trade deal, most would have had 1.35 as the target. The past week, GBP/USD has hit 1.35 and still no agreement has been reached, but with the benefits of a trade deal reflected in the price to some extent. The question I’m asking myself, is how much more is left in the tank in the short term on the back of a Brexit breakthrough and perhaps from current levels gains may be more modest towards 1.37, but I would not rule out a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” type reaction. That in mind, the option market has also diverged notably from spot GBP as option markets hedge for downside protection.

GBP/USD vs 1-Month Risk Reversal

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Is a Brexit Breakthrough Imminent?

Source: Refinitiv

Upcoming Brexit Risk Events

Dec 10-11th: EU Summit

Dec 14-17th: European Parliament Meets for Final Time in the Year

Dec 31st: End of the Transition Period

EUR/GBP Levels to Watch

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Is a Brexit Breakthrough Imminent?

Source: Refinitiv

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.