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The Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose last week despite the US accumulating a grand total of 22 million jobless claims over the course of four weeks. This is the equivalent of wiping out the progress in employment gains since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. While the haven-linked US Dollar saw some weakness, its downside progress has notably slowed.

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Sentiment-linked crude was unable to capitalize on the rise in stocks as OPEC estimated oil demand dropping to a 30-year low. Meanwhile the growth-linked Australian Dollar cautiously rose despite China’s economy shrinking 6 percent y/y in the first quarter which was a historical downturn. Markets were able to look forward to slowing virus case growth globally.

With President Donald Trump presenting guidelines on reopening the economy and a couple of states taking measures to slowly ease travel restrictions, the possibility of a resurface in infections remains a risk. This is as first-quarter earnings season continues with tech, manufacturing, transport and health care companies ahead. Dismal reports from banking institutions offer caution.

Sentiment may however remain bolstered amid aggressive easing efforts from monetary and fiscal authorities. But as conditions improve, expect that these measures could be gradually unwound. The Euro is eyeing a virtual summit by EU leaders to discuss the budget as well as regional consumer confidence data. USD/CAD has Canadian retail sales to watch. What else is ahead?

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Fundamental Forecasts:

USD/MXN Outlook: Mexican President Fails to Secure Exchange Funding to Aid the Economy

The Mexican Peso sees renewed volatility due to risk-off sentiment and debt downgrades due to the economic impact of Covid-19.

Gold Fundamental Outlook Hinges on Shifts in Trader Sentiment

The price of gold extends the pull back from the yearly high ($1748) as President Donald Trump unveils fresh guidelines in opening up the US economy.

Australian Dollar Bulls May Tire If Coronavirus Headlines Don't Improve

The Australian Dollar has risen sharply and perhaps counterintuitively in April as markets pin their hopes on turbo-charged stimulus to fight the contagion’s economic effects.

Canadian Dollar Outlook Bearish on Growth Outlook, US PMI Data

The petroleum-linked Canadian Dollar may fall as global demand for cycle-sensitive commodities like crude oil decline. Policymakers have warned that a Depression-like downturn may be ahead.

Euro Forecast: Outlook for EUR/USD Turning Increasingly Bearish

Global financial markets are at a critical point. Will the next move be up as the coronavirus pandemic peaks or down on fears of a deep recession? With the latter all but certain, more Euro weakness is likely.

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, FTSE 100 Forecasts Amid Earnings Season

Earnings season began last week as some of the largest US banks reported a wide range of quarterly results and forecasts that cast concern over the rest of the season.

Technical Forecasts:

S&P 500, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Forecasts: Risk of Topping Out

Signs of weakness beginning to show for global equities as the corrective rally looks to be exhausted.

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY in Search of Next Big Move

USD/JPY gyrations have calmed , but the calm is bound to give-way soon to another directional move; there are levels to watch to help clue traders in.

Euro Outlook: EUR/USD Contracts into April Range- Pending Breakout

Euro is off by more than 0.5% this week with our focus still on a breakout of the April range for guidance. Here are the levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart.

GBP/USD Forecast: Uptrend Move At a Crossroads- British Pound Price Outlook

This week, uptrend move led the price to a multi-week high. However, the price fell after. Will GBP/USD resume bullish price action next week or will bears comeback?

Gold Price Forecast: Rally Slows After Reaching All-Time High

Gold prices have been stunted in recent days as risk assets rallied around hope that economies around the world would soon re-open. Don’t get your hopes up.

Crude Oil Prices Sink Despite OPEC+ Cuts, 1998-Low Nearing Next?

Crude oil prices are at an 18-year low despite efforts from OPEC+ to lower output as the virus threatens global demand. Lows from 1998 could be next but fading momentum persists.

US Dollar (USD) Outlook Remains Positive But Resistance Lies Ahead

The US dollar remains the haven currency of choice and buyers continue to control price action. Further upside is currently being blocked by a key Fibonacci level.


Dow Jones, US Dollar, Crude Oil, Earnings, Euro, EU Summit: Week Ahead

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.