News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Hey traders check out @PeterHanksFX make a guest appearance with @GuyAdami and @RiskReversal for this week's @macrosetup https://t.co/5oZ4UT4xiq
  • RT @IG_US: @GuyAdami & @RiskReversal talk: - "Bidenomics" - U.S. Debt Binge... - What the promise of added stimulus, QE forever, low rates…
  • $AUDUSD has pared today's gains, falling back to trade around the 0.7690 level after a climb to 0.7715 this morning. $AUD $USD https://t.co/E40qsrPHBa
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.61% Wall Street: 0.29% Germany 30: 0.22% FTSE 100: 0.21% France 40: 0.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/uVK1SrNXgZ
  • $GBPUSD crossed back above 1.3600 as the pair recovers from weakness yesterday and last week. The 1.3600 area has repeatedly come into play on the pair since mid December. $GBP $USD https://t.co/7uKgTrerg6
  • BoE Chief Economist Haldane: - Bounceback from Covid may be sharper than after financial crisis - BoE is not engaging in monetary financing - QE is temporary action to keep borrowing costs low #BoE $GBP
  • US Indices have held onto their earlier gains as the trading day continues. DOW +0.51% NDX +1.35% SPX +0.82% RUT +1.15% $DOW $QQQ $SPY $IWM
  • The price of gold trades below the 50-Day SMA ($1859) once again as the V-shape recovery from the November low ($1765) unravels. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/UrQKgi3VJR https://t.co/g6SpuXwrv0
  • webinar starting right now - topics up for discussion today: 1. Did USD just top? 2. Resistance at prior support EUR/USD 3. How long might USD pullback run for? starting right now - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/455809179 https://t.co/didg11SWgq
  • Treasury Sec. nominee Yellen: Cryptocurrencies are of a particular concern for money laundering and terrorists financing. $BTC
Euro Forecast: Outlook for EUR/USD Turning Increasingly Bearish

Euro Forecast: Outlook for EUR/USD Turning Increasingly Bearish

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
EUR/USD Price Chart

Source: IG Charts

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish

  • As the most widely traded currency pair in the world, EUR/USD is particularly sensitive to global market sentiment.
  • For now, traders are unsure whether to move back into riskier assets as the coronavirus pandemic shows signs of peaking, and countries reopen for business, or into safe havens as a deep economic recession approaches.
  • If, as seems likely, recession fears outweigh coronavirus optimism, the Euro will likely suffer against the US Dollar.

Euro price at risk as global recession approaches

For financial market traders, a key decision is looming: whether to buy riskier assets as the coronavirus pandemic shows signs of peaking, and more countries decide to ease restrictions, or to continue to opt for cash and safe havens like the US Dollar, gold and US Treasury notes and bonds.

Italy, Denmark, Austria and the Czech Republic have all eased some of the rules designed to counter the spread of Covid-19 and limit the damage to their economies: a positive for the Euro. However, the constant flow of data suggesting that the coming worldwide recession will be deep and long-lived will likely continue to damage market sentiment and outweigh any Euro optimism.

As the chart below shows, EUR/USD has weakened again after breaking to the upside from a triangle pattern on the daily chart, suggesting it was a false breakout. While this is primarily a fundamental look-ahead, it is noteworthy that fundamentals and technicals look to be aligned.

EUR/USD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (January 8 – April 16, 2020)

EURUSD price chart

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

EUR/USD BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -11% 8% -1%
Weekly -2% 7% 3%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

Week ahead: Ifo and ZEW

Last week, US economic data took center stage. This week, some key Eurozone figures are due that will emphasize the economic weakness of the region and could therefore damage EUR/USD accordingly. The first important number due is the ZEW measure of German economic sentiment; ZEW is a German research institute that polls investors each month and the market is positioned for an improvement to -43.0 in April from -49.5 in March, leaving plenty of room for disappointment.

Thursday’s GfK measure of German consumer sentiment and ‘flash’ purchasing managers’ indexes could also move the market but arguably the most important data point of the week will be Friday’s Ifo business climate index for Germany. Economists are expecting a drop to 77.2 in April from 86.1 in March but, again, there is a chance of an even steeper slide that would weaken EUR/USD and the Euro crosses.

How Monetary and Fiscal Policy Can Amplify or Stave Off Crises

Starts in:
Live now:
Jan 20
( 16:01 GMT )
Recommended by Martin Essex, MSTA
Weekly Stock Market Outlook
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES