We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The risk rally continued in a big way this week and #Euro bulls have remained in-charge against the US Dollar and Japanese #Yen. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/o7vPmczvMJ https://t.co/GX2YTXz83u
  • The price of #gold may continue to exhibit a bullish behavior in June as the pullback from the yearly high ($1765) reverses ahead of the May low ($1670). Get your Gold market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/OeaYtCpcIo https://t.co/UQVPIVCTCP
  • The $USD breakdown has taken the index into confluence support at the objective yearly open. Get your USD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/A16XEv6n4d https://t.co/GzEp3gCAe5
  • US equities continue to run higher with the Nasdaq 100 setting a fresh all-time-high, not even three months after giving back almost a third of its value in about a month. Get your #Nasdaq technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/1LI54uvI8x https://t.co/e9FvSLqfaA
  • The US Dollar may be at risk to losses against some of its #ASEAN counterparts. USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR and USD/IDR have recently broken to the downside. Will losses continue? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/0RTlj6maTT https://t.co/UyQ4i0AihI
  • The British Pound technical outlook still seems to favor the downside. GBP/CAD may pressure key rising support from August as GBP/AUD could prolong its downtrend. GBP/CHF may fall. Get your $GBP market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/hBOpDKXmfW https://t.co/AJlT2YKeCu
  • USD/JPY is approaching medium-term uptrend resistance and while the outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable near-term while below confluence resistance. Get your $USDJPY technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/93D7AyhHtG https://t.co/KQcLLrkMP3
  • AUD/USD has had the most impressive show of trend over the past couple of months with the pair gaining almost 1500 pips from the March low. Get your $AUDUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vLz4Rpln3u https://t.co/AOwnJja5V8
  • Has the #Euro been saved? Find out from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eiXfOTyGa6 https://t.co/AyRiYpb4cN
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/ygwjGNvS61
Euro Forecast: Outlook for EUR/USD Turning Increasingly Bearish

Euro Forecast: Outlook for EUR/USD Turning Increasingly Bearish

2020-04-19 02:00:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
EUR/USD Price Chart

Source: IG Charts

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish

  • As the most widely traded currency pair in the world, EUR/USD is particularly sensitive to global market sentiment.
  • For now, traders are unsure whether to move back into riskier assets as the coronavirus pandemic shows signs of peaking, and countries reopen for business, or into safe havens as a deep economic recession approaches.
  • If, as seems likely, recession fears outweigh coronavirus optimism, the Euro will likely suffer against the US Dollar.

Euro price at risk as global recession approaches

For financial market traders, a key decision is looming: whether to buy riskier assets as the coronavirus pandemic shows signs of peaking, and more countries decide to ease restrictions, or to continue to opt for cash and safe havens like the US Dollar, gold and US Treasury notes and bonds.

Italy, Denmark, Austria and the Czech Republic have all eased some of the rules designed to counter the spread of Covid-19 and limit the damage to their economies: a positive for the Euro. However, the constant flow of data suggesting that the coming worldwide recession will be deep and long-lived will likely continue to damage market sentiment and outweigh any Euro optimism.

As the chart below shows, EUR/USD has weakened again after breaking to the upside from a triangle pattern on the daily chart, suggesting it was a false breakout. While this is primarily a fundamental look-ahead, it is noteworthy that fundamentals and technicals look to be aligned.

EUR/USD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (January 8 – April 16, 2020)

EURUSD price chart

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 3% -1% 0%
Weekly 9% -5% -1%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

Week ahead: Ifo and ZEW

Last week, US economic data took center stage. This week, some key Eurozone figures are due that will emphasize the economic weakness of the region and could therefore damage EUR/USD accordingly. The first important number due is the ZEW measure of German economic sentiment; ZEW is a German research institute that polls investors each month and the market is positioned for an improvement to -43.0 in April from -49.5 in March, leaving plenty of room for disappointment.

Thursday’s GfK measure of German consumer sentiment and ‘flash’ purchasing managers’ indexes could also move the market but arguably the most important data point of the week will be Friday’s Ifo business climate index for Germany. Economists are expecting a drop to 77.2 in April from 86.1 in March but, again, there is a chance of an even steeper slide that would weaken EUR/USD and the Euro crosses.

How Monetary and Fiscal Policy Can Amplify or Stave Off Crises

Starts in:
Live now:
Jun 09
( 10:06 GMT )
Recommended by Martin Essex, MSTA
Trading Sentiment
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.