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Euro Outlook: EUR/USD Contracts into April Range- Pending Breakout

Euro Outlook: EUR/USD Contracts into April Range- Pending Breakout

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD in consolidation within April monthly opening-range
  • Critical support at 1.0657 – breach above 1.1187 needed to shift broader focus higher

Euro is down nearly 0.6% against the US Dollar this week with EUR/USD trading at 1.0880 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The focus remains on a break of the April opening-range with price continuing to contract within the confines of well-defined technical levels. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro trade setup and more.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes:In my most recent Euro Weekly Price Outlook we highlighted that the, “The immediate focus is on a break of the 1.0777-1.0977 range for guidance,” with our broader outlook still dependent on a hold above the March 2017 high-week close at 1.0657. A weekly reversal this week keeps price within the confines of the April opening-range heading into the close with Euro currently holding just above the 61.8% retracement of the late-March rally at 1.0831.

Initial support steady at 1.0778 with a breach above 1.0976 needed to fuel the next leg higher in price towards key resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci confluence zone at 1.1167/87 – a breach / close above this threshold would suggest a more significant low was registered last month with such a scenario exposing subsequent resistance objectives at the 100% extension at 1.1280 and the June 2019 high-day close at 1.1367. A weekly close below 1.0657 is needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards the 2017 low-week close at 1.0532.

Bottom line: The outlook remains unchanged with a break the 1.0777-1.0977 range still needed for guidance. From a trading standpoint, ultimately we’re on the lookout for downside exhaustion while above 1.0657 IF price is indeed heading higher with a breach / close above 1.1187 needed to keep the focus weighted to the topside heading deeper into the second quarter. I’ll publish an updated Euro Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.12 (47.18% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are6.10% higher than yesterday and 12.29% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 6.11% higher than yesterday and 34.08% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.


Key Euro / US Data Releases

Key Euro / US Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.