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Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY in Search of Next Big Move

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY in Search of Next Big Move

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Japanese Yen Highlights:

  • USD/JPY calm is set to give-way to more volatility
  • Direction not clear yet, levels to watch on both sides

USD/JPY calm is set to give-way to more volatility

USD/JPY had some wild swings throughout the month of March, but once the calendar flipped to April that all changed in favor of smaller swings and daily trading ranges. This hasn’t made life easy for those looking for directional cues, but that could soon change as low periods of volatility tend to end in breakouts.

There is clear support for now at 10692, with the level having been tagged to the pip twice during the first half of the month. This makes it an important breakdown point should we see the move off the March high want to continue to run price lower. How far down USD/JPY would go is hard to say at this time given the broader lack of trend, but a short-term move towards 10400 looks well within the realm of possibility.

On the flip-side, the 200-day is running right in the middle of the recent range at 10830, but it is only considered a minor level. The top-side level to work with right now is 10938. If trading conditions are to remain tight for an extended period of time, this might turn into another level which USD/JPY reverses off of, thus extending a trading range. If it breaks, though, then we will have to start thinking about resistance over 11100 up to 11200.

For now, risk/reward in either direction isn’t attractive without first seeing more price action unfold. But it shouldn’t be too long before we see some type of move start to develop that gives us a better idea of what the path of least resistance will be.

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USD/JPY Daily Chart (levels to watch)

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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