Market Q2 Forecasts: US Dollar, Gold, Euro, Oil, Bitcoin, Yen, Equities Outlooks
The second quarter of the year looks set to bring renewed volatility to a wide range of asset classes as a slew of central banks look set to pull the trigger on interest rate cuts.
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There are a range of volatility drivers lining up in the second quarter of the year that will provide multiple trading opportunities. A range of major G7 central banks are set to start unwinding their restrictive monetary policy by cutting interest rates, or increasing them in the case of the Bank of Japan, US earnings will provide extra volatility to a range of major US indices that currently trade at, or near, multi-decade highs, while the Bitcoin ‘halving’ event historically sees the BTC push substantially higher. The war in Ukraine looks set to continue, the Middle East remains volatile, and markets will begin to look ahead to multiple elections across the Western World later in the year.
The VIX Index, below, highlights the benign market conditions over the last few months as investors enjoyed a profitable, risk-on Q1.
VIX – S&P 500 Volatility Index
After a quiet start to Q2, gold prices rallied sharply in March, printing a fresh all-time high as investors, and central banks, bought the precious metal.
Gold Daily Price Chart
Bitcoin enjoyed a positive Q1, rallying from the start of the year. Heavy demand from spot Bitcoin ETF advisors drove demand, while the upcoming Bitcoin halving event – expected mid-to-late April - will cut new Bitcoin issuance in half, crimping new supply.
The Next Bitcoin Halving - What Does it Mean?
Bitcoin Daily Price Chart
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Q2 Technical and Fundamental Market Forecasts
Australian Dollar Q2 Technical Forecast: AUD/USD and AUD/JPY
AUD/USD remains in a long-term or ‘secular’ downtrend channel which has been in place since mid-February 2021. The base of this band has been very well respected, to the point where the relatively brief fall below it in the second half of 2022 looks like an aberration.
Japanese Yen Q2 Fundamental Forecast: Brighter Days Ahead, Catalysts to Watch
This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the second-quarter outlook for the Japanese yen, shedding light on factors that could spur volatility and dictate price action.
British Pound Q2 Technical Outlook – GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, and GBP/JPY Technical Outlooks
The British Pound has started the process of re-pricing against a range of currencies after the Bank of England’s shift in tone.
Equities Q2 Fundamental Outlook: AI Euphoria, US Election and the Fed to Drive US Stocks
US stocks enjoyed a broad rally in Q1 and the positive market sentiment looks likely to spill over into Q2. The prospect of rate cuts and the growing AI drive supports US stocks.
Crude Oil Q2 Technical Forecast – WTI and Brent. What Looms Ahead?
The US benchmark has scaled five-month highs at the time of writing and is closing in on a longer-term downtrend line on its weekly chart. This has capped the market since mid-2022, admittedly with few tests.
Bitcoin Q2 Fundamental Forecast: Current Demand/Supply Imbalance is Driving Bitcoin Higher
Bitcoin traders have enjoyed the first quarter of 2024 with the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization buoyed by the SEC approval of a raft of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early January.
Gold, Silver Q2 Technical Forecast: Key Resistance in Focus as Markets Get Stretched
This article thoroughly examines the second-quarter technical outlook for gold and silver, delving into the nuances of current price action dynamics and market sentiment to uncover potential trends.
Euro Fundamental Forecast: ECB Will Start Cutting Rates in Q2
Easing price pressures and a stagnant economy will likely see the ECB cut rates in Q2 with more to follow if recent central bank rhetoric is to be believed.
US Dollar Q2 Forecast: Dollar to Push Forward as Major Central Banks Eye Rate Cuts
The US dollar performed phenomenally in Q1 - something that is likely to continue but perhaps to a lesser degree now that growth is moderating and rate cuts come into focus.
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