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Markets Week Ahead: Russell 2000, S&P 500, Gold, USD, Biden Stimulus, Earnings, ECB

Markets Week Ahead: Russell 2000, S&P 500, Gold, USD, Biden Stimulus, Earnings, ECB

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Equities mostly fell this past week with a few key exceptions. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 sank over 1% while small-cap stocks outperformed the broader market as the Russell 2000 soared about 2%. In Europe, the DAX 30 and FTSE 100 declined 1.9% and 2.0% respectively. Meanwhile in the APAC region, the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng climbed 3.74% and 2.5% respectively.

The broader risk-off tone reflected in currency markets, where the anti-risk US Dollar and similarly-behaving Japanese Yen shined. The growth-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars wobbled. Taking a look at commodities and precious metals, crude oil netted little changed while anti-fiat gold prices dropped roughly 1%.

A big theme that most traders will likely be watching ahead is where US fiscal policy goes as Joe Biden is sworn in as the 46th president. Some of the weakness in equities this past week may have been as a result of investors pricing in a watered-down version of Biden’s USD 1.9 trillion relief package due to what may be difficulty passing it through the Senate.

The week ahead is also quite busy, with earnings season in play: companies like Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Netflix and Intel are reporting. Soft results from Wells Fargo and JP Morgan this past week may foreshadow another round of dismal figures for bank companies ahead. A reminder that Monday is a holiday in the US, expect sub-par liquidity conditions to start the week.

The Euro, Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar are eyeing the ECB, BoJ and BoC respectively. Chinese fourth-quarter GDP will have key insights into the state of global growth. Will a jobs report stoke volatility in the Australian Dollar? Europe is going to update economic sentiment indicators. What else is in store for financial markets ahead?

Fundamental Forecasts:

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: GBP/USD Rally Out of Steam?

GBP underpinned as BoE downplays negative rates, alongside vaccine rollout.

Australian Dollar Outlook: Tied to Biden Stimulus Bets, S&P 500, US Dollar, Treasuries

The Australian Dollar sits on the crossroads of Treasury yields, the S&P 500 and US fiscal stimulus expectations. Will AUD/USD gains slow? Chinese Q4 GDP and Australian jobs data are due.

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Week Ahead Outlook Poor, ECB Meeting in Focus

EUR/USD has dropped sharply over the last few days and may well fall further. However, it is also possible that the bad news is now priced in to the exchange rate and that further weakness will be delayed.

US Dollar Rebound in Focus Ahead of US Presidential Inauguration

The US Dollar breaks out of the range bound price action from the first of January going into the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden.

Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 Outlook: Earnings May Bring Positive Surprises

The Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 stock indexes may find fresh catalysts as the release of Q4 US corporate earnings set the tone for what has been a record-scrapping rally.

Technical Forecasts:

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD May Rise as 200-MA Holds Firm

Gold prices have come under significant pressure to kick-off 2021. However, the formation of bullish technical patterns across multiple timeframes suggests that a rebound higher may be at hand.

Sterling (GBP) Weekly Forecasts: GBP Supported by Covid Vaccination Hopes

Sterling continues to nudge higher against most major currencies with traders placing their trust in the ongoing UK vaccination plan.

Mexican Peso Technical Forecast: USD/MXN Picks Up Buyer Support

USD/MXN continues consolidation as bearish momentum eases and bias attempt to turn to the upside

Crude Oil Technical Outlook: Pullback at Hand Before Next Leg Higher?

Crude oil prices are poised to continue their upward trajectory in 2021, but technical signals hint that a near-term pullback may precede the next major push higher.

S&P 500, DAX 30 & FTSE Technical Forecast for Next Week

The S&P 500 continues to trend higher within the confines of an upward channel, and as long as it stays above the lower parallel of the pattern then it remains positioned for higher prices.

US Dollar Outlook: USD Surges as Index Rebounds off Trend Support

The Dollar’s first major counteroffensive since September takes the index more than 1.6% off the monthly low. Here are the levels that matter on the DXY technical chart.

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Triangle Builds into Wedge

USD/JPY has built a short-term wedge inside of a longer-term triangle – but which one should a trader bias?


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