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Weekly Fundamental Forecast: The Week Ends with Raised Trade War Threats from Trump, ECB and BoE Rate Decisions Ahead

Weekly Fundamental Forecast: The Week Ends with Raised Trade War Threats from Trump, ECB and BoE Rate Decisions Ahead


Fundamental traders are finding it difficult to determine exactly what to keep tabs on for generating volatility in the markets. Is the escalation of the US-led trade war with another $267 billion tariff threat on China and not-so-subtle threat to pull Japan in more market-moving than scheduled events like the ECB and BoE rate decisions?

US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar May Rise on CPI, Trade Wars and Emerging Markets Stress

The US Dollar may continue higher after last week’s spirited advance as CPI data boosts Fed rate hike bets while a plethora of risk-off catalysts stokes haven demand.

Euro Forecast - ECB Meeting Eyed, Even if Policy is on Preset Course

Thursday’s ECB meeting should bring little new information as policy was preset for the next year back at the June meeting; a mention of European banks’ exposure to Turkish borrowers would excite markets.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - NZD/USD Prices May Fall on Swedish Election and as ECB Sinks Euro

The New Zealand Dollar could be vulnerable to political and trade wars next. A Swedish election could lessen the urgency for the ECB to raise rates in 2019, sending EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower.

Japanese Yen Forecast - The Japanese Yen Moves into the Tariff Conversation

The Japanese Yen caught a bid this week when indications began to show that we may soon see tariff discussions aimed at Japan. This could complicate the return of Yen-weakness, and given the backdrop of global risk aversion, may help to soon open the door to strategies of strength.

Crude Oil Forecast – Trade Wars and an Emerging Market Crisis Likely To Keep Oil Volatile

Crude oil fell 6% from Tuesday to Friday as the Emerging Market crisis escalated, but bulls have reason to remain hopeful as demand in China remains robust and supply may soon wane.

British Pound Forecast – Positive Momentum Will Continue to Drive Sterling Higher

Sterling continues to point higher across a range of currencies as negative Brexit sentiment continues to fade away as investors start to believe that a positive Brexit outcome is nearing.

Gold Forecast - Gold Prices Vulnerable to Sticky U.S Core CPI, Retail Sales

Fresh developments coming out of the U.S. economy may keep gold prices under pressure should the data prints keep the Fed on track to implement higher interest rates.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Still Short Of Buy Signals Despite Strong Data

The Australian economy is firing reasonably strongly, as this week is expected to underline once again. But that won’t save AUD/USD

Chinese Yuan Forecast - Yuan Awaits China's Retaliation on US Tariffs, PBOC's Guidance

Weak Chinese fundamentals and US threats on additional tariffs have the Yuan at risk; at the same time, it looks to China’s Central Bank for support.

Canadian Dollar Forecast - Loonie Awaits NAFTA Outcome for Direction

The past week saw the Canadian Dollar weaken towards 1.32 against the greenback with much of the same factors contributing to the weakness. CAD direction dependent on NAFTA.

Equities Forecast – S&P 500, DAX & FTSE Outlook: ECB, BoE, Markets Diverging

Looking to the calendar next week, both the ECB and BoE are meeting on Thursday; technical posturinggrowing increasingly concerning

Weekly Fundamental Forecast: The Week Ends with Raised Trade War Threats from Trump, ECB and BoE Rate Decisions Ahead

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See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the IG Client Sentiment readings on the sentiment page.

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