News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Citi lowers China 2022 GDP forecast 4.9% from 5.5%, citing expected spillover from managed Evergrande restructuring
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • Spooz sub 50-DMA again. There’s been some selling overnight during the European sessions yesterday and today. Sure hope this doesn’t shape up into a H&S topping pattern, but has anyone else noticed lower highs and lower lows forming? 👀 $SPX $ES #SP500
  • PBoC Governor - PBoC has the conditions in place to maintain a normal and rising yield curve - Sees no need to purchase assets now
  • Not today I’m afraid. I’m on holiday in Ventnor in the lovely Isle of Wight
  • ECB's Villeroy - Inflation forecast justifies keeping loose ECB policy
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here:
  • Join @MartinSEssex at 5:30 EST/9:30 GMT for a webinar on trading sentiment. Register here:
  • Japan PM Suga - To lift Covid state of emergency in all regions at the end of the month $JPY
  • Reminder that the 21st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for October 4th
S&P 500, DAX & FTSE Outlook: ECB, BoE, Markets Diverging

S&P 500, DAX & FTSE Outlook: ECB, BoE, Markets Diverging

Paul Robinson, Strategist
Please add a description for the image.

Equity Talking Points:

  • A few nuggets of data, Trade War headlines; S&P 500 holding on, watch NDX
  • ECB on Thursday; DAX on the verge of a big technical test
  • BoE on Thursday; FTSE rolling over hard, any bounce to be temporary

For forecasts, trade ideas, and educational guides, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

S&P 500

On Friday, the U.S. jobs report for August was released. Non-farm payrolls came in at 201k vs. the 195k expected, with the prior month revised to 147k from 157k. The unemployment rate was 3.9%, up from 3.8% the month prior. Average hourly earnings came in stronger than expected at 2.9% vs. 2.7%, helping give the dollar a boost while hitting index future pre-market. Looking to data next week, we have CPI on Thursday followed by Retails Sales and UofM Confidence on Friday. Trade war headlines will remain a persistent threat…

Turning to the technical front, the S&P is not far off its highs, but as we discussed on Friday, if the Nasdaq 100 cracks the underside of the rising wedge building since early this year the whole market could be in trouble. Other global markets are certainly pointing to the possibility of a tough stretch ahead with the DAX and FTSE trading at multi-month lows and the Nikkei acting very sluggish. Seasonality from now into October is decidedly negative for stocks. However, until we see the S&P start trading lower with momentum and breaking levels we’ll need to reserve an overly bearish outlook and respect support at its feet.

S&P 500: Daily

S&P 500, DAX & FTSE Outlook: ECB, BoE, Markets Diverging


Next week brings with it the ECB on Thursday, and while it may not have an impact on the market (perhaps more so the euro), traders should of course be on their toes. Outside of the ECB, there aren’t any other scheduled releases which are expected to move the market.

The DAX breaking down below 12104 last week has the index in the verge of testing the neckline of a broad head-and-shoulders topping pattern dating back to June of last year. The neckline resides down near 11600. A test of the neckline will be critical for long-term prospects, as a break could usher in a much larger decline. The path of least resistance is lower as long as the market stays below 12104.

Check out this guide for 4 ideas on how to Build Confidence in Trading.

DAX: Daily

S&P 500, DAX & FTSE Outlook: ECB, BoE, Markets Diverging


On Thursday, the BoE meets and is expected to maintain its current monetary policy. Looking at the calendar, data is light next week, but that doesn’t mean the FTSE won’t be moving.

Along with the DAX, the FTSE has been a real weak spot across major global equity markets. On Friday, the decline worsened with the footsie taking out another support level around 7300. The broad ‘RST’ topping pattern we discussed not long ago is in full swing. We may see an oversold bounce soon, but the path of least resistance is set to remain lower for the foreseeable future, with the March low targeted at some point in the weeks ahead.

FTSE: Daily

S&P 500, DAX & FTSE Outlook: ECB, BoE, Markets Diverging

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX

Other Fundamental Forecast:

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - NZD/USD Prices May Fall on Swedish Election and as ECB Sinks Euro

Japanese Yen Forecast - The Japanese Yen Moves into the Tariff Conversation

Oil Forecast – Trade Wars and an Emerging Market Crisis Likely To Keep Oil Volatile

British Pound Forecast – Positive Momentum Will Continue to Drive Sterling Higher

Gold Forecast - Gold Prices Vulnerable to Sticky U.S Core CPI, Retail Sales

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Still Short Of Buy Signals Despite Strong Data

Chinese Yuan Forecast - Yuan Awaits China's Retaliation on US Tariffs, PBOC's Guidance

Canadian Dollar Forecast - Loonie Awaits NAFTA Outcome for Direction

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.