We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Join @JWagnerFXTrader 's #webinar at 9:30 AM ET/1:30 PM GMT at the US market opening bell. Register here: https://t.co/9pXwJzGj54 https://t.co/fv1BPC7j4n
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.05%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.29%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/o62p1BdjzF
  • LIVE NOW: Join Technical Strategist @MBForex as he hosts his Weekly Strategy Webinar on the setups we're tracking into the open! https://t.co/dFw88WP8eH
  • RT @chigrl: ICYMI overnight >#China seeks $2.4 billion in sanctions against U.S. in Obama-era case: WTO https://t.co/p7O1taMbsO https://t.…
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.35% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.33% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.26% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.04% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/yNdPOvkwdE
  • Weekly Strategy Webinar starting in 15mins on DailyFX! https://t.co/RgnsklZ2Gl
  • Currency Wars: Tools that are used in a currency war https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/10/16/Currency-Wars-What-to-Expect-if-a-Currency-War-Breaks-Out.html?CHID=9&QPID=917713
  • CFTC update - Surprisingly, $GBP net shorts were relatively unchanged, despite the 5% rally. Adds further fuel to an extended rise - Weak demand for safe havens as speculators flip to net short in $JPY - $NZD bearish positions still very extreme https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/cot/2019/10/21/GBPUSD-Shorts-Unchanged-Despite-Rally-Japenese-Yen-Flips-to-Short---COT-Report.html?CHID=9&QPID=917713 https://t.co/PxKOjjXjS4
  • RT @JMahony_IG: Useful graphic from @ING_Economics 'Where it could go wrong for UK prime minister Boris Johnson' #Brexit #BrexitVote https…
  • Join @MBForex 's at 8:30 AM ET/12:30 PM GMT for his weekly #scalping #webinar Register here: https://t.co/VAnAfZU02T https://t.co/MDGLWr8s3Z
Australian Dollar Still Short Of Buy Signals Despite Strong Data

Australian Dollar Still Short Of Buy Signals Despite Strong Data

2018-09-08 22:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:

Please add a description for the image.

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

Australian Dollar Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD remains mired despite strong economic numbers
  • There’s now a clear disconnect between these and interest rate expectations
  • This trend won’t lift in the coming week

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

Last week’s blockbuster second-quarter growth report failed to stop the Australian Dollar from plumbing new, 20-month depths against its big US brother.

That seems a little harsh of the market when the 3.4% annualized rise in Gross Domestic Product was not only ahead of market forecasts, but also the best showing since the fall of 2012.

So why couldn’t the Australian Dollar glean more support than it did?

Well, all GDP data are open to charges of being too historic to matter in the frenetic, second-to-second world of foreign exchange. There is some truth here too.

What price second quarter data when we’re close to the end of the third? There’s also a broad suspicion that this year has been a bit front-loaded in global growth terms, with a slowing Chinese economy, seemingly endless trade spats and worries about emerging markets likely to make the second half much tougher.

Then there are some more specific Australian problems. None of them is new. Inflation remains stickily low, consumer debt remains stickily high. Indeed the markets still do not think that record-low interest rates are going anywhere for at least another year. With US rates still very likely to rise, the Aussie remains in a very tough place.

This week will not change that, but it will bring official employment data out of Australia. If job creation holds up then the Aussie could get a little bounce but, as we saw in the case of last week’s growth data, those bounces tend not to last. There was another one when the Reserve Bank of Australia was perhaps a little less dovish than markets had feared in its post-rate-decision statement. But that didn’t last either.

Given that gloomy trade headlines, too, are all-but assured thanks to the Trump White House’s apparently renewed focus on Japan, as well as China and Western Europe, as a trade-surplus ‘sinner,’ it is very hard to see any reason why the Aussie Dollar’s travails should halt this week.

So it is yet another bearish call.

Australian Dollar Still Short Of Buy Signals Despite Strong Data

Resources for Traders:

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

Other Fundamental Forecast:

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - NZD/USD Prices May Fall on Swedish Election and as ECB Sinks Euro

Japanese Yen Forecast - The Japanese Yen Moves into the Tariff Conversation

Oil Forecast – Trade Wars and an Emerging Market Crisis Likely To Keep Oil Volatile

British Pound Forecast – Positive Momentum Will Continue to Drive Sterling Higher

Gold Forecast - Gold Prices Vulnerable to Sticky U.S Core CPI, Retail Sales

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.