News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The market’s preferred ‘fear indicator’ shows a persistent uncertainty around the near future. What can our current conditions and history tell us what to expect from the #VIX through the final two months of the year?
  • #Stock market performance is considered an important predictor of the economic outlook. What else can it be used to project? #Elections2020
  • What are some monetary policies that could affect Gold this quarter? Get your Gold free forecast here:
  • A #Euro reversal off technical downtrend resistance now risks a larger correction in price. Here are the levels that matter on the $EURUSD weekly chart. Get your #currencies update from @MBForex here:
  • We are days away from the US Presidential election and the markets are caught in the vortex. A contested outcome would raise serious volatility for the markets whereas a decisive outcome seems to support bullish $SPX and Dollar views from the market rank.
  • The future implications of the #Elections2020 may influence $AUDUSD following the #RBA and #Fed rate decisions as Congress struggles to pass another round of fiscal stimulus. Get your #currencies update from @DavidJSong here:
  • Gold prices declined in the aftermath of bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced. $XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #Elections2020. Get your #metals update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • USD awakens, placing GBP/USD on the backfoot, while EUR/GBP cracks 0.90. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • What are some factors impacting Euro’s forecast this quarter? Get your free forecast here:
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
US Dollar May Rise on CPI, Trade Wars and Emerging Markets Stress

US Dollar May Rise on CPI, Trade Wars and Emerging Markets Stress

2018-09-08 14:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
US Dollar upcoming economic data calendar


  • US Dollar buoyed by upbeat economic data, safety-seeking demand
  • CPI data echoing wage growth uptick may boost Fed outlook further
  • Trade wars, emerging markets jitters might prolong risk aversion

See our free guide to get help gain confidence in your US Dollar trading strategy!

The US Dollar accelerated higher last week as market sentiment deteriorated and Fed rate hike expectations firmed, speaking to the greenback’s haven and yield appeal (as expected). Emerging market shares and currencies plunged amid worries that a US-led rise in borrowing costs may destabilize several key sovereigns, including Turkey, Brazil and Russia. That offered support from safety-seeking flows.

Meanwhile, ISM data showed faster manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth than economists predicted, setting the stage for fireworks as Augusts’ jobs report hit the wires. Perhaps most critically, the release showed that wage inflation soared to a nine-year high of 2.9 percent unexpectedly (although suspicions were entertained ahead of the release). This bolstered priced-in Fed rate hike bets.

Looking ahead, Augusts’ CPI statistics take top billing on the economic calendar. Consensus forecasts envision a downtick from 2.9 to 2.8 percent. If the spike in wages proves to be indicative however, an upside surprise may be in the cards. That could boost conviction in a December rate increase. As it stands, the futures-implied probability of such an outcome stands at 67 percent, the highest in a month.

Furthermore, potential risk-off catalysts abound. An upshift in the projected Fed tightening cycle may continue to sow discord in emerging market assets. Trade war escalation is a concurrent worry after US President Trump threatened an additional $267 billion in anti-China tariffs to follow the $200 billion top-up still pending deployment. Eurosceptic triumph in upcoming Swedish elections may be another flashpoint.

On balance, this seems supportive for the US currency. Still, while a tectonic shift in the Fed outlook is unlikely without an improbably dramatic data miss, sentiment trends can be fickle. Even a relatively modest win on this front – like Canada’s ascension to a revised NAFTA accord or a Brexit negotiations breakthrough – may eat into the Dollar’s haven-based support. Proceeding with caution seems prudent.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter



NZD/USD Prices May Fall on Swedish Election and as ECB Sinks Euro

The Japanese Yen Moves into the Tariff Conversation

Trade Wars and an Emerging Market Crisis Likely To Keep Oil Volatile

Positive Momentum Will Continue to Drive Sterling Higher

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.