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Euro Price Forecast: EUR/USD Plunge Stalls Ahead of Technical Support

Euro Price Forecast: EUR/USD Plunge Stalls Ahead of Technical Support

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD sell-off fizzles into yearly low-week close
  • Weekly support 1.1760, 1.1695; Key resistance / bearish invalidation 1.2005
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Euro fell more than 0.65% against the US Dollar this week with EUR/USD now eyeing critical support objectives just lower. While the risk remains for a deeper decline, the immediate sell-off may be vulnerable here as price stalls ahead of support near the yearly lows for a third consecutive week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro technical setup and more.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Forecast - Technical Outlook

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Euro Weekly Price Outlookwe noted that EUR/USD had, “stalled at a key resistance confluence around the objective yearly open. From a trading standpoint, the March rally remains vulnerable while below this zone” The technical zone in focus was 1.2219/39- a region defined by the yearly high-week close and the objective 2021 open. Euro plunged more than 4% in the following weeks with a break below the 2020 trendline / 52-week moving average in June threatening a larger breakdown here.

Initial weekly support is seen just lower with the objective yearly low-week close at 1.1760 backed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 advance at 1.1695 and 2016 high / 100% extension of the yearly decline at 1.1616/21- both areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. Weekly resistance stands with the 52-week moving average at 1.1953 with bearish invalidation set to the 2018 open / 61.8% extension of the 2017 advance 1.2005.

Bottom line: A break below yearly uptrend support threatens a larger Euro breakdown- that said, the decline may be vulnerable near-term as price approaches the yearly close-lows. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – look for topside exhaustion ahead of the 1.20-handle IF price is heading lower with a break of the objective yearly opening-range lows risking further Euro losses. Keep in mind the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision is on tap next week- stay nimble. I’ll publish an updated Euro Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the EUR/USD near-term technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.26 (55.69% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are2.69% higher than yesterday and 5.30% higher from last week
  • Short positions are6.40% lower than yesterday and 0.51% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

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Key Eurozone / US Data Releases

Eurozone / US Data Releases - EUR/USD Economic Calendar - Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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