Skip to content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD/USD Plunges into Uptrend Support

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD/USD Plunges into Uptrend Support

Michael Boutros, Strategist

New Zealand Dollar Technical Price Outlook: NZD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • New Zealand Dollarupdated technical trade levels - Weekly Chart
  • NZD/USD plummets into uptrend support- July opening-range in focus
  • Critical support 6941/69 – Resistance 7111, 7169
Advertisement

The New Zealand Dollar is trapped in a contractionary zone against the US Dollar just below critical technical resistance and the focus is on a possible breakout as we head into the June open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD weekly price chart heading into next week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Kiwitrade setup and more.

New Zealand Dollar Price Chart – NZD/USD Weekly

New Zealand Dollar Price Chart - NZD/USD Weekly - Kiwi Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; NZD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s New Zealand Dollar Price Forecast I noted that Kiwi was ranging just below a key resistance confluence at 7265/92- a region defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range / 2021 high-close. We highlighted that, “Initial support rests with the parallel near ~7150s with a break / close below 7085-7111 needed to shift the broader focus lower again in Kiwi towards the yearly lows / key support at 6941/69.” NZD/USD broke lower the following week with price plummeting more than 5.3% to register a low at 6923 before rebounding. The focus now shifts to July opening-range as Kiwi responds to confluence uptrend support.

Initial weekly resistance now stands back at 7111 backed by the 61.8% retracement of the May decline at 7169- look for topside exhaustion ahead of this threshold IF price is indeed heading lower. Key support steady at 6941/69 (note that the 52-week moving average also now converges on this zone)- a break / close below would likely risk another bout of accelerated losses with such a scenario exposing the 100% extension of the yearly decline / July 2019 swing high at 6790/95backed by 6702/33.

Bottom line: The New-Zealand Dollar has plunged into confluence uptrend support and we’re looking for possible inflection off this zone. From at trading standpoint, a good region to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – look for a break of the July opening-range for guidance here with the May decline at risk while above the yearly lows. Ultimately, a breach / close above 7265/92 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. I’ll publish an updated New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

New Zealand Dollar Trader Sentiment – NZD/USD Price Chart

New Zealand Dollar Trader Sentiment - NZD/USD Price Chart - Kiwi Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short NZD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.12 (47.20% of traders are long) – typically weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 7.42% higher than yesterday and unchanged from last week
  • Short positions are 17.07% lower than yesterday and 12.14% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current NZD/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

Key New Zealand / US Economic Releases

Key New Zealand / US Economic Releases - NZD/USD Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES