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New Zealand Dollar Forecast: Kiwi Grinds at Resistance- NZD/USD Levels

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: Kiwi Grinds at Resistance- NZD/USD Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

New Zealand Dollar Technical Price Outlook: NZD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • New Zealand Dollar updated technical trade levels - Weekly Chart
  • NZD/USD coiling into a contractionary range just below resistance- Breakout watch into June
  • Initial support 7150s, 7085 (key) – Critical resistance 7265/92
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The New Zealand Dollar is trapped in a contractionary zone against the US Dollar just below critical technical resistance and the focus is on a possible breakout as we head into the June open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD weekly price chart heading into next week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Kiwitrade setup and more.

New Zealand Dollar Price Chart – NZD/USD Weekly

New Zealand Dollar Price Chart - NZD/USD Weekly - Kiwi Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; NZD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last NZD/USD Price Forecast we noted that a, “five week rally in the New Zealand Dollar may be vulnerable as price probes key technical resistance.” Price has continued to test this zone for the past six-weeks with a contractionary range taking shape just below heading into the June open – we’re on breakout watch.

Weekly resistance steady at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range / 2021 high-close at 7265/92 – a breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption with such a scenario likely to fuel an accelerated run towards subsequent resistance objectives at the 2018 high-week close at 7389 and the 2018 high at 7437. The next key resistance confluence eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the 2014 decline / 2017 highs at 7550/58. Initial support rests with the parallel near ~7150s with a break / close below 7085-7111 needed to shift the broader focus lower again in Kiwi towards the yearly lows / key support at 6941/69.

Bottom line: The New-Zealand Dollar remains with in the May opening-range and the immediate focus is on this consolidation range just below key resistance. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – be on the lookout for a breakout early in the month for guidance. Losses should be limited by last week’s low IF price is indeed heading higher with a close above 7300 needed to mar resumption. Keep in mind we have US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) on tap into the close of a shortened holiday week- stay nimble. I’ll publish an updated New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

New Zealand Dollar Trader Sentiment – NZD/USD Price Chart

New Zealand Dollar Trade Sentiment - NZD/USD Price Chart - Kiwi Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short NZD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.23 (44.77% of traders are long) – typically weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 10.71% lower than yesterday and 16.49% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 5.80% higher than yesterday and 2.82% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed NZD/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Key New Zealand / US Economic Releases

Key New Zealand / US Economic Releases - USD/CAD Economic Calendar - Key Kiwi Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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