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Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Falters at Yearly Open Resistance- FOMC Levels

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Falters at Yearly Open Resistance- FOMC Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD rally falters at yearly-open resistance- bulls vulnerable
  • Key weekly resistance at 1.2239 – Weekly support 1.2005; bullish invalidation 1.1919

Euro is down just 0.7% against the US Dollar year-to-date after rallying nearly 5% off the year lows in just months. The advance faltered at technical resistance around the 2021 yearly open and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the risk remains for a deeper correction we head into the FOMC rate decision later this week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro technical setup and more.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Euro Weekly Price Outlookwe noted that EUR/USD had marked a key reversal off multi-month uptrend support – fast forward two-months, and that rally extended more than 4.7% off the yearly low before failing multiple attempts to breach key resistance at 1.2219/39. This region is defined by the yearly high-week close and the objective 2021 open – a break / weekly close above is needed to mark resumption of broader uptrend.

Initial weekly support now rests back at 1.2005 with broader bullish invalidation raised to the 52-week moving average / 61.8% Fibonacci retracement which converge on the March 2018 trendline around ~1.1914/19- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. A topside breach / close above the yearly open exposes subsequent resistance objectives at 1.2337 and the 2018 high-week close at 1.2409.

Bottom line: The EUR/USD rally has stalled at a key resistance confluence around the objective yearly open. From a trading standpoint, the March rally remains vulnerable while below this zone - ultimately the broader outlook remains constructive while above 1.1919with breach / weekly close above 1.2240 needed to mark resumption towards the 2021 yearly high and beyond. Stay nimble heading into the Fed rate decision on Wednesday - I’ll publish an updated Euro Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the EUR/USD near-term technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.01 (49.75% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are13.08% higher than yesterday and 38.60% higher from last week
  • Short positions are10.82% higher than yesterday and 16.28% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.


Key Eurozone / US Data Releases

Key Eurozone / US Data Releases - EUR/USD Economic Calendar - Weekly Event Risk Ahead- FOMC

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.