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Oil Price Forecast: Oil Plunges into Critical Support- WTI Levels

Oil Price Forecast: Oil Plunges into Critical Support- WTI Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly Trade Levels

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Oil prices plunged more than 6% into the open of the week with WTI poised for the third consecutive weekly decline. The losses take price into a critical support confluence at multi-month uptrend support and we’re on the lookout for a reaction down here. The battle-lines are drawn for the oil bears into the start of the week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil price weekly chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil price technical setup and more.

Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly - USOil Trade Outlook - CL Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Crude Oil Price Forecast we noted that, “A six-week advance has taken oil prices into a long-term technical confluence – we’re looking for possible inflection off this key zone at 74.94-77.26.” We highlighted initial weekly support at, “the median-line of the ascending pitchfork extending off the November / April lows with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the lower parallel / 2019 high at 65.92-66.57,” – WTI is approaching this critical threshold early in the week.

Weekly-open resistance stands at 71.42 with bearish invalidation now lowered to the July open at 73.44. A break below this key support confluence would risk another bout of accelerated losses with such a scenario exposing subsequent support objectives at the May low-week / low-day close at 63.84 backed by the 2020 high-week reversal close at 59.16.

Bottom line: The crude oil price sell-off is now eyeing major confluent uptrend support at 65.92-66.57 – we’re on the lookout for possible inflection down here. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch into this key zone – recoveries should be capped by the median-line IF price is heading lower with a weekly close below needed to keep the bears in control. I’ll publish an updated Crude Oil Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term WTI technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - USOil Retail Positioning - CL Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short crude oil - the ratio stands at -1.07 (48.39% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are 2.03% higher than yesterday and 18.87% higher from last week
  • Short positions are19.75% higher than yesterday and 9.60% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to rise. Trader are more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Oil - US Crude trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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