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Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Stretch to Monthly Highs at Risk

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Stretch to Monthly Highs at Risk

Michael Boutros, Strategist

The Canadian Dollar has covered all of last week’s range with the recent breakout in USD/CAD pulling back today from near-term technical resistance. The broader advance may be vulnerable here as price approaches a critical resistance zone we’ve been tracking for weeks now. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Daily - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that USD/CAD was, “testing levels of interest for resistance and leaves the immediate long-bias vulnerable,” while below 1.3250s. price broke higher in the following days with the rally turning today off near-term channel resistance.

Critical daily resistance stands just higher at the September high-day close / 61.8% retracement of the May decline at 1.3335/56 – a breach / close above this threshodl would be needed to keep the broader long-bias viable. Daily support rests with the lower parallel, currently ~1.3220s – look for a reaction there IF reached.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 120min - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows USD/CAD reversing off channel resistance this week with key resistance just higher at 1.3335/56- the advance is vulnerable into this zone. Initial support rests at 1.3270 backed closely by 1.3253 and the weekly open at 1.3224 – losses should be limited to this threshold IF indeed price is heading higher. A topside breach above this resistance zone would shift the focus toward subsequent resistance objectives at 1.3384 and the 2017 open / 61.8% retracement at 1.3435/37.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: USD/CAD is approaching a critical resistance threshold and we’re on the lookout for near-term topside exhaustion up here. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. IF price fails at these levels, look for a move back towards parallel support for guidance. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -3.12 (24.26% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are6.22% lower than yesterday and 39.88% lower from last week
  • Short positions are5.70% lower than yesterday and 22.89% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Key US / Canada Data Releases

US / Canada Key Data Releases- USD/CAD Economic Calendar - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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