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Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Breakout Fizzles- Loonie Levels

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Breakout Fizzles- Loonie Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

The Canadian Dollar is down more than 1.4% against the US Dollar since the October lows in USD/CAD with the recent breakout taking price into the first major resistance hurdle this week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Daily - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that the, “USD/CAD recovery is testing downtrend resistance here leaves the immediate long-bias vulnerable into the start of the month while below this slope,” (~1.3180). Price held below the median-line until late-last week with a sharp breakout in USD/CAD now testing Fibonacci resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the September decline at 1.3252- looking for a reaction up here.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 120min - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows the USD/CAD breakout trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the October / November lows. Initial resistance stands at 1.3252 backed by 1.3281- looking for possible exhaustion off one of these levels near-term IF reached. Weekly open support at 1.3218 with a break below 1.3196 needed to suggest a more significant high may be in place- such a scenario would shift the focus back towards the September lows at 1.3134.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: The USD/CAD breakout is testing levels of interest for resistance and leaves the immediate long-bias vulnerable while below the median-line. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – be on the lookout for topside exhaustion while below 1.3280 with a break below pitchfork support needed to validate a near-term reversal in price. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -1.25 (44.52% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are3.13% higher than yesterday and 37.57% lower from last week
  • Short positions are6.82% lower than yesterday and 11.41% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week andthe combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Key US / Canada Data Releases

Canada / US Economic Calendar - USD/CAD Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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