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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Defends Critical Support- GLD Targets

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Defends Critical Support- GLD Targets

Michael Boutros,
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Gold prices reversed off a key support zone this week and we’re assessing this recent recovery in XAU/USD. While the broader risk remains lower, the short-bias is vulnerable while above 1451 and the immediate focus is on a reaction at near-term resistance just higher. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts this week. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling price setup and more.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my latest Gold Price Outlook we noted that XAU/USD was, “testing the lower bounds of a multi-week consolidation pattern and we’re looking for a reaction.” A decisive break lower later that day saw gold prices plummet into a critical long-term support zone we’ve been tracking for months now at 1451/61. Price has continued to respect this region on a close basis and leaves the short-bias at risk while above – for now.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min - GLD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines a descending pitchfork formation extending off recent highs with the upper parallel highlighting near-term confluence resistance here at 1472 – where the October open converges on the 38.2% retracement of the November decline. A breach / close above this threshold would be needed to validate a near-term reversal with such a scenario targeting 1489.

Near-term support remains 1460/61 with a break / close below 1451 needed to suggest a much larger correction is underway in gold prices. Subsequent support objectives eyed at 1433 in event of the break.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: Gold prices have responded to key support with the recent recovery now targeting the first resistance target at 1472- look for a reaction here. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops - look for support around 1460 on pullbacks IF price is indeed heading higher with a breach targeting 1489. Review my latest Gold Price Weekly Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +3.68 (78.65% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are0.73% lower than yesterday and 8.52% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 4.06% higher than yesterday and 18.38% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.