Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Rebound to Challenge Downtrend Resistance

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Rebound to Challenge Downtrend Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro is trading into near-term downtrend resistance after rebounding off confluence resistance last week. The immediate focus is on a break of the weekly opening-range which has taken shape just below - these are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD price charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Daily - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my latest Euro Price Outlook we noted to be on the lookout for downside exhaustion as the EUR/USD was, “approaching the first major support hurdle at 1.0994.” Price registered a low at 1.0989 last week before rebounding sharply to post an outside-day reversal off the lows. The recovery is up nearly 1% with Euro now approaching longer-term downtrend resistance.

Daily support rests with the 75% parallel, currently around 1.1030s with a break below 1.0994 still needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Ultimately a breach / close above the September highs at 1.1109 would be needed to validate a larger breakout in price targeting monthly open resistance at 1.1151.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 120min

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD continuing to trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending October / November highs with price turning just ahead of the upper parallel early this week. The immediate focus is on a break of the weekly opening-range for guidance.

Initial support rests at 1.1051 ( weekly open at 1.1047) – look for a break there to threaten a larger pullback in price targeting the 61.8% retracement at 1.1027 and 1.1011- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / long-entries IF reached. A topside breach of this formation / 1.1090 still must contend with key resistance at 1.1104/09 – look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a close above needed to validate a larger turn in price.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: The Euro recovery is trading just below near-term downslope resistance. From at trading standpoint, the advance may vulnerable while below the upper parallel but we’re looking for fade weakness while above 1.1011 with a topside breach ultimately favored. Review my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.08 (48.08% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are 8.71% lower than yesterday and 26.52% lower from last week
  • Short positions are0.42% higher than yesterday and 24.94% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Euro retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


Key Euro / US Data Releases

EUR/USD Economic Calendar - Euro / US Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.