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Forex: Dollar and S&P 500 Like Deer in Headlights as Debt Ceiling Looms

Forex: Dollar and S&P 500 Like Deer in Headlights as Debt Ceiling Looms

2013-10-16 04:48:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• Only one day out from the US debt ceiling deadline, both the dollar and equities are ominously calm

• There is a sense of skeptical optimism, but uncertainty is the prevailing theme

• A solution before or after the October 17 timeline can still offer a risk and dollar relief rally

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The October 17 debt ceiling deadline is nearly upon us, and neither the dollar nor US equities have collapsed under the weight of fear. A mixture of optimism in a last-minute deal as well as utter uncertainty as to the full implications of this unprecedented crisis are keeping the markets eerily bound to range. As long as the markets exhibit the confusion, the clearest eventual impact would be a relief rally on an eventual resolution (though a 'Drop Dead' date could change this to sheer risk aversion quickly). That said, the 'risk on' picture is not very rosy and presents risk for ambitious short-term speculators placing trades on expected outcomes. As we watch the headlines, it is important to keep a close eye on the market, reduced exposure to risk/dollar uncertainties and perhaps even avoid volatility traps altogether. We discuss these conditions in today's Forex Trading Video.

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