Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Sterling Outlook: GBP/USD Plunge Breaks Monthly Range- Support in View

Sterling Outlook: GBP/USD Plunge Breaks Monthly Range- Support in View

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Sterling Technical Price Outlook: GBP/USD Trade Levels

  • Sterling technical trade level update – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • GBP/USD reversal off trend resistance breaks September range lows- risk for deeper correction
  • Key support 1.3625/46- Resistance 1.3735, 1.3854- bearish invalidation 1.3844

The British Pound is poised to close a third consecutive daily decline against the US Dollar with GBP/USD down more than 1.9% off the monthly high. The decline marks a break of the monthly range with the sell-off now probing a critical support pivot- looking for a reaction here in the days ahead with the FOMC interest rate decision on tap. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the GBP/USD price charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling technical setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Jan 09
( 13:01 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Short-term Trading Strategy Webinar
Register for Webinar
Join Now
Webinar Has Ended

Sterling Price Chart – GBP/USD Daily

Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD Daily - British Pound vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Cable Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Sterling Outlook we noted that that rally was approaching longer-term downtrend resistance – “From at trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- be on the lookout for topside exhaustion / possible inflection into the upper parallel for guidance early in the month with a close above 1.3890 ultimately needed to keep the long-bias viable.” Sterling registered an intraday high at 1.3913 last week before reversing sharply lower with a break of the September opening-range lows shifting the focus towards a critical support confluence just lower. Note that the British Pound has been in consolidation above the July lows with price now approaching key support at the July low-day close / 2021 yearly open at 1.3625/46- look for a reaction there IF reached with a break / close below needed to keep the short-bias viable in the days ahead.

Sterling Price Chart – GBP/USD 120min

Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD 120min - British Pound vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Sterling price action shows GBP/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the Monthly highs. The 61.8% parallel now converges on the 1.3625/46 support zone and further highlights its technical significance. Weekly open resistance stands at 1.3735 backed by the September open at 1.3754 – areas of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF price is heading lower. Near-term bearish invalidation steady at 1.3844. A break below support here would keep the focus on the August low at the 1.36-handle and the February low at 1.3567– weakness beyond this threshold would risk another bout of accelerated losses for Sterling with such a scenario threatening a run on the 2017 high-day close / 2018 yearly open at 1.3495-1.3504.

GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest quarterly GBP/USD Price Forecast
Get My Guide

Bottom line: Sterling has broken the monthly opening-range with the decline now testing key support into the objective yearly open – we’re looking for a reaction here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – look for topside exhaustion ahead of the monthly open IF price is heading lower with a break / close below 1.3625 needed to suggest a larger correction is underway. Review my latest British Pound Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Sterling Trader Sentiment – GBP/USD Price Chart

Sterling Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart - British Pound vs US Dollar Retail Positioning - Cable Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows shows traders are net-long GBP/USD - the ratio stands at +2.07 (67.38% of traders are long) – typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are 14.09% higher than yesterday and 29.70% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 2.15% lower than yesterday and 37.22% lower from last week
  • • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from sentiment standpoint.
GBP/USD Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 27% -7% 5%
Weekly -1% -9% -5%
Learn how shifts in GBP/USD retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide


UK / US Economic Calendar

UK / US Economic Calendar - GBP/USD Key Data Releases - Sterling Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

    - Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

    Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

    DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.