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Sterling Outlook: GBP/USD Rally Eyes Breakout Resistance ahead of NFP

Sterling Outlook: GBP/USD Rally Eyes Breakout Resistance ahead of NFP

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Sterling Technical Price Outlook: GBP/USD Trade Levels

  • Sterling technical trade level update – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • GBP/USD rally extends into initial resistance hurdles– risk for price inflection into NFP
  • Key support 1.3625/46- Resistance 1.3837/44, 1.3890

The British Pound is poised to close a third consecutive daily advance against the US Dollar with GBP/USD up more than 0.5% for the week. The advance takes Cable into initial resistance targets with US Non-Farm Payroll on tap tomorrow- the battles lines are drawn heading into the September open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the GBP/USD price charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling technical setup and more.

Sterling Price Chart – GBP/USD Daily

Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD Daily - British Pound vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Cable Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: Sterling threatened a break of major support last month at the July low-day close / 2021 yearly open around 1.3625/46 before sharply reversing higher into the close of the August. The rally has extended nearly 1.7% off the lows with the recovery now approaching initial lateral resistance at 1.3837/44- a region defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July decline and the 100% extension of the advance off the August low. We’re looking for possible price inflection here with a breach / close above the highlighted trendline confluence (~1.3880s)needed to suggest a larger trend reversal may be underway.

Sterling Price Chart – GBP/USD 120min

Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD 120min - British Pound vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Cable Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Sterling price action highlights GBP/USD rebounding of key support at 1.3625/46 with the recovery trading within the confines of an ascending channel formation. Weekly / monthly open support at 1.3752/54 with a break of the weekly opening-range lows risking another test of the yearly open. Ultimately a breach above the objective August open at 1.3890 is needed to fuel the next breakout towards 1.3992.

Bottom line: The Sterling rally has extended into initial resistance hurdles into the September open with US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap tomorrow- stay nimble. From at trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- be on the lookout for topside exhaustion / possible inflection into the upper parallel for guidance early in the month with a close above 1.3890 ultimately needed to keep the long-bias viable. Review my latest British Pound Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Sterling Trader Sentiment – GBP/USD Price Chart

Sterling Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart - British Pound vs US Dollar Retail Positioning
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long GBP/USD - the ratio stands at +1.23 (55.09% of traders are long) – typically weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are3.53% lower than yesterday and 15.73% lower from last week
  • Short positions are1.37% higher than yesterday and 14.09% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.


UK / US Economic Calendar

UK / US Economic Calendar - GBP/USD Key Data Releases - Sterling Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.