Skip to content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Sterling Outlook: GBP/USD Rally Eyes Breakout Resistance ahead of NFP

Sterling Outlook: GBP/USD Rally Eyes Breakout Resistance ahead of NFP

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Sterling Technical Price Outlook: GBP/USD Trade Levels

  • Sterling technical trade level update – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • GBP/USD rally extends into initial resistance hurdles– risk for price inflection into NFP
  • Key support 1.3625/46- Resistance 1.3837/44, 1.3890
Advertisement

The British Pound is poised to close a third consecutive daily advance against the US Dollar with GBP/USD up more than 0.5% for the week. The advance takes Cable into initial resistance targets with US Non-Farm Payroll on tap tomorrow- the battles lines are drawn heading into the September open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the GBP/USD price charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling technical setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Oct 03
( 12:10 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Weekly Scalping Webinar
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

Sterling Price Chart – GBP/USD Daily

Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD Daily - British Pound vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Cable Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: Sterling threatened a break of major support last month at the July low-day close / 2021 yearly open around 1.3625/46 before sharply reversing higher into the close of the August. The rally has extended nearly 1.7% off the lows with the recovery now approaching initial lateral resistance at 1.3837/44- a region defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July decline and the 100% extension of the advance off the August low. We’re looking for possible price inflection here with a breach / close above the highlighted trendline confluence (~1.3880s)needed to suggest a larger trend reversal may be underway.

Sterling Price Chart – GBP/USD 120min

Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD 120min - British Pound vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Cable Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Sterling price action highlights GBP/USD rebounding of key support at 1.3625/46 with the recovery trading within the confines of an ascending channel formation. Weekly / monthly open support at 1.3752/54 with a break of the weekly opening-range lows risking another test of the yearly open. Ultimately a breach above the objective August open at 1.3890 is needed to fuel the next breakout towards 1.3992.

GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest quarterly GBP/USD Price Forecast
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The Sterling rally has extended into initial resistance hurdles into the September open with US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap tomorrow- stay nimble. From at trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- be on the lookout for topside exhaustion / possible inflection into the upper parallel for guidance early in the month with a close above 1.3890 ultimately needed to keep the long-bias viable. Review my latest British Pound Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Sterling Trader Sentiment – GBP/USD Price Chart

Sterling Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart - British Pound vs US Dollar Retail Positioning
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long GBP/USD - the ratio stands at +1.23 (55.09% of traders are long) – typically weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are3.53% lower than yesterday and 15.73% lower from last week
  • Short positions are1.37% higher than yesterday and 14.09% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
GBP/USD Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -9% 6% -4%
Weekly -33% 152% -2%
Learn how shifts in GBP/USD retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

---

UK / US Economic Calendar

UK / US Economic Calendar - GBP/USD Key Data Releases - Sterling Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES