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Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Surge to Resistance on NFP- ECB on Deck

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Surge to Resistance on NFP- ECB on Deck

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Near-term Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • EUR/USD surges into resistance at the July Highs- risk for price inflection
  • Resistance 1.1909, 1.1965- Support at 1.1840, 1.1793 (Key)

Euro surged more than 0.8% against the US Dollar this week with EUR/USD taking another leg higher on the heels of Friday’s US Non-Farm Payroll report. The rally takes price into a key technical hurdle and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable at these levels. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD technical price charts heading into the close of the week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro technical setup and more.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Daily - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Price Outlook we noted that EUR/USD had, “once again plummeted towards key support at the yearly lows and while the medium-term risk remains lower, the immediate decline may be vulnerable while above 1.1695.” Euro plunged into thus support zone just days later to registered a low at 1.1664 before reversing sharply into the August close. The rally is now approaching the first major resistance confluence at 1.1895-1.1908- a region defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May decline & the July high and converges on the 75% parallel of the proposed ascending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly lows. We’re looking for possible price inflection up here.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 120min

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within an embedded ascending channel formation with the post-NFP rally driving into confluence resistance at 1.1895-1.1908. Initial support rests at 1.1866 backed by the highlighted trendline confluence near ~1.1840 and the weekly / monthly open at 1.1794-1.1808- look for downside exhaustion ahead of this zone IF price is heading higher with a topside breach to threaten another accelerated run towards the 100-day moving average / 50% retracement at 1.1951/65.

Bottom line: A “V” shaped recovery off fresh yearly lows takes Euro into near-term uptrend resistance at the July highs – risk for price inflection off this threshold. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – the trade remains constructive while within this formation with a breach / close above 1.19 needed to fuel the next leg higher in price. Review my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook for an in-depth look at the longer-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.39 (41.82% of traders are long) – typically weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 11.11% lower than yesterday and 20.14% lower from last week
  • Short positions are4.81% higher than yesterday and 12.97% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.


Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases

Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases - EUR/USD Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.