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Australian Dollar Outlook: Aussie Reversal Threat- AUD/USD Levels

Australian Dollar Outlook: Aussie Reversal Threat- AUD/USD Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • AUD/USD reverses off downtrend resistance / risk for larger correction
  • Near-term support 7313, 7248 (key) – resistance 7449, bearish invalidation 7500

The Australian Dollar is on defensive against the US Dollar with the post-NFP pullback off resistance breaking below a multi-week uptrend yesterday. The threat remains for a deeper pullback in the days ahead with price now approaching initial support objectives. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD technical price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Daily - Aussie Trade Outlook - AUDUSD Technical Outlook

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: The Australian Dollar surged more than 5.2% off the August low with AUD/USD pivoting back above a major slope support. The rally extended into confluence resistance last week at the June lows / 50% retracement at 7476/98 before turning with the pullback now approaching initial support objectives. Is a near-term high in place? The focus shifts to the September opening-range which has been carved out just below confluent resistance around the median-line and just above monthly open support at 7314.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 120min

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD 120min - Aussie Trade Outlook - AUDUSD Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of an ascending channel formation off the low. A break below the lower parallel yesterday highlights the threat of a deeper pullback here with initial support objectives eyed at 7313/36- a region defined by the September / August monthly opens and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August rally. Look for possible price inflection there IF reached with a break / close below needed to keep the bearish bias in play towards 7281 and the 61.8% retracement at 7248 – an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion.

Initial resistance stands with the September 2020 high at 7143 backed by the weekly open at 7449. Ultimately a breach above 7500 is needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month with such a scenario likely to threaten another accelerated run towards the 61.8% retracement / July high at 7591/98.

Bottom line:The Australian Dollar turned form multi-month downtrend resistance with a break of a multi-week uptrend threatening a larger near-term correction in price. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a drop towards confluent support at 7313/28- expect a larger reaction there to offer guidance IF reached with the near-term outlook weighted to the downside while below weekly open resistance at 7449. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Retail Positioning - Techncial Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.31 (43.21% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 2.64% higher than yesterday and 13.79% lower from last week
  • Short positions are5.15% lower than yesterday and 18.35% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUD/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.


Key Australia / US Data Releases

Key Australia / US Data Releases - Aussie Event Risk - AUD/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.