News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @BIS_org: Since the early 1990s, changes in the #MonetaryPolicy stance have affected a rather narrow set of prices – mostly in the servi…
  • Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou reached deal with the US Dept of Justice to return her to China - Dow Jones
  • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester says: - sees US GDP in 2022 between 3.75 and 4% - Supports tapering in November and concluding over the first half of 2022 - After liftoff, accommodative policy needed for some time
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn't comment on the growth forecast or monetary policy in his introductory remarks
  • Kansas City Fed President Esther George says: - The labor market friction is fading barring a resurgence of virus - A 'normal' economy is likely to remain elusive for some time - Asset buying effects complicate the judging rate change plan
  • The risk rally that charged the S&P 500 and brethren post-FOMC has stalled into Friday's open. DailyFX's @JohnKicklighter discusses what is driving markets post Fed👇 https://t.co/qNuVaDrZPe
  • 🇺🇸 New Home Sales MoM (AUG) Actual: 1.5% Previous: 6.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-24
  • China has announced that they will be cracking down on Cryptocurrency mining and while this has been a reoccurring theme, regardless of that fact Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/FluWtTTM93 https://t.co/GnBLLucMs3
  • Looks like they couldn't hold the 8.8000 line for $USDTRY. Record high exchange rate (favoring Dollar over Turkish Lira) despite a still-17.75 percentage point differential in their benchmark rates... https://t.co/7FrlF8El1O
  • 🇺🇸 New Home Sales MoM (AUG) Actual: 1.5% Previous: 1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-24
Australian Dollar Outlook: Aussie Reversal Threat- AUD/USD Levels

Australian Dollar Outlook: Aussie Reversal Threat- AUD/USD Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • AUD/USD reverses off downtrend resistance / risk for larger correction
  • Near-term support 7313, 7248 (key) – resistance 7449, bearish invalidation 7500
Advertisement

The Australian Dollar is on defensive against the US Dollar with the post-NFP pullback off resistance breaking below a multi-week uptrend yesterday. The threat remains for a deeper pullback in the days ahead with price now approaching initial support objectives. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD technical price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Daily - Aussie Trade Outlook - AUDUSD Technical Outlook

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: The Australian Dollar surged more than 5.2% off the August low with AUD/USD pivoting back above a major slope support. The rally extended into confluence resistance last week at the June lows / 50% retracement at 7476/98 before turning with the pullback now approaching initial support objectives. Is a near-term high in place? The focus shifts to the September opening-range which has been carved out just below confluent resistance around the median-line and just above monthly open support at 7314.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 120min

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD 120min - Aussie Trade Outlook - AUDUSD Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of an ascending channel formation off the low. A break below the lower parallel yesterday highlights the threat of a deeper pullback here with initial support objectives eyed at 7313/36- a region defined by the September / August monthly opens and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August rally. Look for possible price inflection there IF reached with a break / close below needed to keep the bearish bias in play towards 7281 and the 61.8% retracement at 7248 – an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion.

Initial resistance stands with the September 2020 high at 7143 backed by the weekly open at 7449. Ultimately a breach above 7500 is needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month with such a scenario likely to threaten another accelerated run towards the 61.8% retracement / July high at 7591/98.

Bottom line:The Australian Dollar turned form multi-month downtrend resistance with a break of a multi-week uptrend threatening a larger near-term correction in price. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a drop towards confluent support at 7313/28- expect a larger reaction there to offer guidance IF reached with the near-term outlook weighted to the downside while below weekly open resistance at 7449. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Retail Positioning - Techncial Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.31 (43.21% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 2.64% higher than yesterday and 13.79% lower from last week
  • Short positions are5.15% lower than yesterday and 18.35% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUD/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

---

Key Australia / US Data Releases

Key Australia / US Data Releases - Aussie Event Risk - AUD/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES