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Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Surges Towards Resistance- Bulls Eye 1.20

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Surges Towards Resistance- Bulls Eye 1.20

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD rally approaching confluent technical resistance- bulls vulnerable
  • Key resistance / broader bearish invalidation 1.2103 – Weekly support at 1.1760
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Euro is up more than 0.7% against the US Dollar this week as EUR/USD attempts to build on the April-open rally. An advance of more than 2.4% off the yearly low now eyes key weekly resistance objectives just higher and we’re looking for possible price inflection into this region in the days ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro technical setup and more.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Euro Weekly Price Outlookwe noted that, “the risk remains for topside exhaustion ahead of the monthly open at 1.2070 with a break lower exposing 1.1695- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.” EUR/USD broke lower into the close of the March trade with price registering a low at 1.1704 before reversing sharply higher into April trade.

The recovery is now approaching confluence resistance at 1.2005/26- a region defined by the 61.8% extension of the 2017 advance, the objective 2018 yearly open and the 50% retracement of the 2021 yearly range. Note that former trendline support (red) also converges on this threshold and we’re on the lookout for possible inflection up here with a topside breach exposing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2103- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Initial weekly support now rests with the yearly low-week close at 1.1760- losses beyond this threshold would risk resumption of the yearly trend with such a scenario once again exposing 1.1695 and the 2016 high / 1.618% extension at 1.1600/16.

Bottom line: The EUR/USD rally is now approaching initial weekly resistance at a key technical confluence zone. From at trading standpoint, look for reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch into 1.200/26 IF reached – an area of interest for possible inflection. Losses should be limited to the low-week close IF price is heading higher - ultimately, the bulls start to get vulnerable into yearly trend resistance near ~1.21. I’ll publish an updated Euro Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the EUR/USD near-term technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.63 (38.08% of traders are long) – typically bullish reading
  • Long positions are1.85% higher than yesterday and 12.26% lower from last week
  • Short positions are7.87% higher than yesterday and 11.88% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

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Key Eurozone / US Data Releases

Key Eurozone / US Data Releases - EUR/USD Economic Calendar - Euro / Dollar Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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