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Gold Price Forecast: Gold Drifts Towards Range Extremes– XAU/USD Levels

Gold Price Forecast: Gold Drifts Towards Range Extremes– XAU/USD Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

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Gold prices are virtually unchanged since the start of the week with the XAU/USD recovery losing steam just ahead of the range highs. The focus is on a key resistance just higher with the recent rebound vulnerable while below August 2020 trendline. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly charts into the close of the month. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that, “A rebound off key lateral support leaves gold mid-range here and in a precarious position into the close of the month. From a trading standpoint, our outlook remains unchanged and we’re on the lookout for a possible exhaustion high ahead of 1767.” Gold positioning remains unchanged two-weeks into April trade with a slow grind higher keeping XAU/USD below key resistance here 1763/67.

Initial weekly support rests with the April open 1707 backed by the Fibonacci confluence at 1682/89 and 1649 – a major zone of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. Ultimately a breach / weekly close above the August trendline / 1785 is needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month with such a scenario exposing the yearly high-week reversal close at 1849.

Bottom line: Gold remains in a range just above the March lows / technical support at 1682/89 with price drifting towards the upper bounds. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 1763/67 – an area of interest for possible inflection IF reached. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Retail Positioning - Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +4.12 (80.49% of traders are long) – typically bearishreading
  • Long positions are0.48% lower than yesterday and 0.98% higher from last week
  • Short positions are4.66% higher than yesterday and 21.98% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. The recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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