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Gold Price Outlook: Gold Recovery at Risk- XAU/USD FOMC Levels

Gold Price Outlook: Gold Recovery at Risk- XAU/USD FOMC Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Near-term Trade Levels

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Gold prices are virtually unchanged for the week with a holding pattern in view heading into today’s highly anticipated FOMC rate decision. A recovery of more than 3.4% takes XAU/USD into monthly open resistance with a near-term range in focus as we head into the Fed. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD technical charts heading into the close of the week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast - Pre-FOMC

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Price Outlook we noted that the XAU/USD breakdown was, “testing the first major hurdle at downtrend support early in the month and we’re on the lookout for possible inflection into this region.” The confluence zone in question was 1690- a region defined by the lower parallel and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 yearly range. Gold briefly registered an intraday low at 1676 before reversing sharply higher with the advance halting at monthly open resistance near 1734.

Key daily resistance / bearish invalidation remains unchanged at 1764/67- a breach / close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last week. Weekly support steady at 1690 with a break there exposing the 100% extension at 1649- an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast - Pre-FOMC

Notes: A closer look at Gold price action shows XAU/USD continuing to trade within the confines of the near-term ascending pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking off the monthly lows. The weekly opening-range has been carved out just below the March open / 61.8% extension at 1734/38- Ultimately a breach above the median-line would suggest resumption towards broader downtrend resistance near 1763. The weekly range low comes in at 1721 with a close below this formation once again shifting the focus back towards Fibonacci support at 1690.

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Bottom line: A near-term recovery in gold off downtrend support now takes price into technical resistance at the monthly open. From at trading standpoint, look for a break of the weekly opening-range for guidance today with the broader risk still for a deeper correction while below 1767. The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is on tap in just a few hours – expect volatility and stay nimble until we get through the subsequent presser with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Review my latest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Retail Positioning - GC Technical Foreast - Pre-FOMC
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +4.22 (80.84% of traders are long) – typically bearishreading
  • Long positions are3.73% lower than yesterday and 9.11% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 13.84% higher than yesterday and 34.22% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. The recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Gold Mixed
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
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Weekly -1% -8% -2%
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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