News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USDCHF fell back below the 0.9200 level today, hitting a fresh six week low. The US Treasury removed the currency manipulator label from Switzerland earlier today. $USD $CHF https://t.co/IjSkZgmzew
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.37% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.37% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.25% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.07% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.19% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/mrrJhI6OQD
  • Fed's Kaplan: - US economy to expand around 6.5% in 2021 - Vaccines will outpace growth of variants in the US #Fed $USD
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.21% France 40: 0.81% Wall Street: 0.42% FTSE 100: 0.32% US 500: 0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/VMIGdHYoL4
  • The Treasury's FX Manipulator designation list is clear as of this morning's update yet the SNB reiterated currency intervention is necessary as part of its monetary policy but it's 'not manipulation'. Hmm.
  • The Pound faces short-term risks which are putting pressure on an overly optimistic start of the year. EUR/GBP buyers consolidate further upside momentum. Get your $EURGBP market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/G4tNYbYSLE https://t.co/XPErcUKT8A
  • - Fed's dot plot of forecasts on rates isn't helping us - Markets are getting ahead of themselves in terms of expecting rate hikes
  • Fed's Waller: - I think the economy is "ready to rip" - Temporary factors will push up inflation, so long as expectations remain anchored we're ok - Fed isn't going to sit still and let inflation rip #Fed $USD
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.80% Silver: 0.72% Oil - US Crude: -0.68% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/TSbPggx2CP
  • RT @NYFedResearch: The majority of businesses say they expect to see a rebound in revenues post-pandemic in response to special questions i…
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Bears Stall at Support- FOMC to Drive

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Bears Stall at Support- FOMC to Drive

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD sell-off halted at technical support- bears vulnerable into FOMC
  • Risk for deeper setback while below the 1.21– Key weekly support at 1.1835, 1.1695
Advertisement

Euro is down nearly 0.25% against the US Dollar into the weekly open with EUR/USD trading just above technical support ahead of this week’s highly anticipated FOMC interest rate decision. Price is precariously positioned here at downtrend support and we’re on the lookout for a breakout in the days ahead to offer further guidance on our near-term directional bias. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart heading into the Fed. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro technical setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Apr 19
( 12:04 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Weekly Scalping Webinar
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Euro Weekly Price Outlookwe highlighted the risk for a deeper correction in EUR/USD while below the yearly high-week close and to be, “on the lookout for topside exhaustion / swing high while below 1.2219 IF price is indeed heading lower with a break / close below 1.1835 needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway.” Price briefly registered an intraday high at 1.2243 into the close of February before reversing sharply lower with the sell-off marking a low precisely at 1.1835 last week – clean moves but what now?

Note that the decline completes two equal legs off the high- this needs to hold IF the correction is complete and keeps the focus on the August high-week reversal close / 100% extension at 1.1835/45. A break / weekly close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a larger correction is underway towards confluence support at the 2020 trendline / 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 advance at ~1.1695. Initial weekly resistance now stands at 1.2005 with a breach above yearly channel resistance needed to suggest a more significant low is in place.

EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download Our Latest Quarterly Euro Price Forecasts!
Get My Guide

Bottom line: Euro has responded to confluence weekly support and the immediate focus is on this range between 1.1845-1.2005 heading into the FOMC this week. From a trading standpoint, a good zone / time to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops- the risk remains for topside exhaustion ahead of the monthly open at 1.2070 with a break lower exposing 1.1695- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Ultimately, a deeper pullback may offer more favorable opportunities with a breach above the monthly opening-range highs at 1.2113 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Techncial Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.18 (45.86% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are18.71% higher than yesterday and 9.01% lower from last week
  • Short positions are15.97% higher than yesterday and 16.89% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
EUR/USD Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 7% -3% 0%
Weekly -3% 17% 9%
Learn how shifts in Euro retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

---

Key Eurozone / US Data Releases

Key Eurozone / US Data Releases - EUR/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES