Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Bears Stall at Support- FOMC to Drive

2021-03-15 16:30:00 Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart
EUR/USD sell-off halted at technical support- bears vulnerable into FOMC
Risk for deeper setback while below the 1.21– Key weekly support at 1.1835, 1.1695

Euro is down nearly 0.25% against the US Dollar into the weekly open with EUR/USD trading just above technical support ahead of this week’s highly anticipated FOMC interest rate decision. Price is precariously positioned here at downtrend support and we’re on the lookout for a breakout in the days ahead to offer further guidance on our near-term directional bias. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart heading into the Fed. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro technical setup and more.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Euro Weekly Price Outlookwe highlighted the risk for a deeper correction in EUR/USD while below the yearly high-week close and to be, “on the lookout for topside exhaustion / swing high while below 1.2219 IF price is indeed heading lower with a break / close below 1.1835 needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway.” Price briefly registered an intraday high at 1.2243 into the close of February before reversing sharply lower with the sell-off marking a low precisely at 1.1835 last week – clean moves but what now?

Note that the decline completes two equal legs off the high- this needs to hold IF the correction is complete and keeps the focus on the August high-week reversal close / 100% extension at 1.1835/45. A break / weekly close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a larger correction is underway towards confluence support at the 2020 trendline / 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 advance at ~1.1695. Initial weekly resistance now stands at 1.2005 with a breach above yearly channel resistance needed to suggest a more significant low is in place.

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Bottom line: Euro has responded to confluence weekly support and the immediate focus is on this range between 1.1845-1.2005 heading into the FOMC this week. From a trading standpoint, a good zone / time to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops- the risk remains for topside exhaustion ahead of the monthly open at 1.2070 with a break lower exposing 1.1695- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Ultimately, a deeper pullback may offer more favorable opportunities with a breach above the monthly opening-range highs at 1.2113 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.18 (45.86% of traders are long) – neutral reading
Long positions are18.71% higher than yesterday and 9.01% lower from last week
Short positions are15.97% higher than yesterday and 16.89% higher from last week
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.