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New Zealand Dollar Forecast: Kiwi Collapses- NZD/USD Breakdown Levels

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: Kiwi Collapses- NZD/USD Breakdown Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

New Zealand Dollar Technical Price Outlook: NZD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • New Zealand Dollar updated technical trade levels - Weekly Chart
  • NZD/USD collapses to fresh yearly lows – risk for further losses while below March open
  • Initial support 6941/69, 6798 critical – Resistance 7110
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The New Zealand Dollar plummeted more than 2.4% against the US Dollar into the start of the week with NZD/USD breaking to fresh 2021 lows. Kiwi is now down more than 6.8% off the yearly high with the decline now probing initial support objectives near the 2018 swing highs- we’re looking for possible inflection here with the broader risk weighted to the downside in the weeks ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD weekly price chart heading into next week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Kiwitrade setup and more.

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New Zealand Dollar Price Chart – NZD/USD Weekly

New Zealand Dollar Price Chart - NZD/USD Weekly - Kiwi Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; NZD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: The New Zealand Dollar carved out a well-defined yearly opening-range just above a key technical confluence we’ve been following at 7111/52- a region defined by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017 decline and the 50% retracement of the broader 2014 decline. Ongoing momentum divergence into an RSI trigger break was followed by a decisive break / close below this threshold yesterday and has already fueled a decline of more than 4.6% off the March high.

The sell-off is now approaching initial weekly support and the 2019 / December 2018 swing highs at 6941/69 – look for possible inflection there IF reached with a close below needed to keep the short-bias viable towards the 69-handle and 6798. Weekly resistance now back at 7111/52 with breach above the objective March open at 7235 needed to shift the broader focus higher again.

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Bottom line: The New Zealand Dollar remains susceptible to further losses in the weeks ahead after breaking below the yearly / monthly opening-range lows. That said, the decline has already extended into the first region of support into 6941/69. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce short exposure / lower protective stops – recoveries should be limited by 7110 IF price is indeed heading lower with a break of the lows targeting longer-term uptrend support. I’ll publish an updated New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term NZD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

New Zealand Dollar Trader Sentiment – NZD/USD Price Chart

New Zealand Dollar Trader Sentiment - NZD/UUSD Price Chart - Kiwi Retail Positioning - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.07 (51.60% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are 25.97% higher than yesterday and 50.97% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 0.27% lower than yesterday and 18.75% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
NZD/USD Mixed
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 8% 3% 4%
Weekly -2% 15% 8%
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Key New Zealand / US Economic Releases - NZD/USD Event Risk

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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