News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.06% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.12% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.22% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.23% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/LZfExkLfjB
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 1.31% Germany 30: 0.97% FTSE 100: 0.82% US 500: 0.57% Wall Street: 0.48% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/gUKOWwsere
  • The July flash PMIs from Markit don't paint the most encouraging picture. The US and UK composite activity measures have slide, the Eurozone's has actually advanced and Australia's has tumbled. Despite this picture, SPX just off its record https://t.co/HrcdPASU9Q
  • The July PMIs haven't triggered late-in-the-week volatility which leaves the likes of the $SPX just off its record. DailyFX's @JohnKicklighter discusses weekend and what's ahead 👇 https://t.co/oB9i7XAXCz
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.37% Gold: -0.40% Silver: -1.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/es0k9q46z0
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.49%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 70.30%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Bo2bJUaa0h
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.39% Oil - US Crude: -0.44% Silver: -1.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/mqveb8LmH7
  • 🇺🇸 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (JUL) Actual: 63.1 Expected: 62 Previous: 62.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-23
  • LNG looks fundamentally bullish. Low storage - supportive of sustained upward price action. Get your market update from @WVenketas here:https://t.co/h8NC2m4S2G https://t.co/TYADcug01i
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 1.20% Germany 30: 1.04% FTSE 100: 0.87% Wall Street: 0.52% US 500: 0.46% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/vSdsBpA79Y
Eurozone Needs "Proponomics" Injection to Help Restore Confidence

Eurozone Needs "Proponomics" Injection to Help Restore Confidence

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
  • Markets finding some bids following excessive risk liquidation
  • Aussie growth data come in much better than expected
  • We introduce “Proponomics” - the economics of artificially propping economies
  • Eurozone must apply this strategy to prevent further collapse
  • ECB policy decision due later today; no rate change expected
  • UK construction PMI, Eurozone GDP marginally weaker than expected
  • German industrial production fall sharply

It’s excellent to be back on the desk after some time off to enjoy my new baby boy.

Meanwhile, markets have settled following a wave of volatility resulting in broad based strength in the safe haven US Dollar and Yen. While there is still no clear resolution in place to deal with the Eurozone crisis, a simple need for some form of a technical bounce after some extreme moves is finally being recognized. At the same time, there are also some positives to talk about on the fundamental front, with the most recent much better than expected Aussie growth data perhaps helping to infuse a sense of confidence into the market place.

Broadly speaking, we contend that risk correlated assets could indeed find more demand over the coming weeks, even in the face of threats in the Eurozone and fear of contagion. Since the onset of the global crisis in 2008, there has been one constant that continues to support the markets at every step of misfortune, and that is the commitment by central banks and governments to step in and do whatever is necessary to prop the local economy. This approach of doing “whatever it takes” to prevent collapse and prop up struggling economies is a new form of economics that seems to be proving effective as evidenced by the ability for the US economy to slowly emerge from recession.

Relative performance versus the USD Wednesday (as of 10:05GMT)

AUD +1.13%

NZD +0.89%

GBP +0.53%

CAD +0.47%

EUR +0.34%

CHF +0.32%

JPY -0.43%

What better name for this form of economics then “proponomics,” the economics of pumping liquidity into the system to prevent collapse at all costs. The strategy doesn’t concern itself with longer-term threats to the local and global economy and instead focuses firmly on fixing the short-term problem. While it is clear that the risks to the longer-term economy are potentially exacerbated through the implementation of an artificial support to the economy, it is also true that inability to step in and deal with the short-term problem would be even worse than pumping the local economy with liquidity and keeping monetary policy ultra accommodative.

Right now, the short-term threat to the Eurozone economy is more significant than the longer-term one and proponomics seems to be the most effective strategy. It now looks as though Europe will need to step up on this front and overinflate its way through the turmoil in order to prevent what could be a very serious disaster. Therefore, if Eurozone officials can step up and offer some form of reassurance that they will do whatever necessary to keep the Eurozone intact, we feel the outlook will be brighter despite the many obstacles that will still need to be overcome. The European Central Bank is scheduled to meet later today and while no change is expected on rates, we view this as a formidable opportunity for Mr. Draghi to step up and provide the necessary reassurances to both the Eurozone and global economies.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

EUR/USD:The market is in the process of correcting from some violently oversold levels after breaking to yearly lows just under 1.2300. While our overall outlook remains grossly bearish, from here, we still see room for short-term upside before a fresh lower top is sought out. Look for a close back above 1.2545 to open the door for acceleration into the 1.2800-1.3000 area, where fresh offers are likely to re-emerge.

USD/JPY:The latest setbacks have been rather intense, with the market collapsing through the 200-Day SMA before finally finding support by 77.65. We have since seen attempts at recovery and we contend that the market should continue to break higher, with sights ultimately set on a retest and break of the 2012 highs by 84.20 further up. However, at this point, we will need to see a break and close back above 80.00 to officially alleviate downside pressures and reaffirm bullish outlook.

GBP/USD: Daily studies are now well oversold and from here risks seem tilted to the upside to allow for a necessary short-term corrective bounce after setbacks stalled just shy of the 2012 lows from January. Look for a break and close back above 1.5440 to strengthen short-term bullish outlook, with acceleration then projected into the 1.5600-1.5800 area where a fresh lower top will be sought out in favor of underlying bear trend resumption.

USD/CHF: While we retain a broader bullish outlook for this pair, with the market seen establishing back above parity over the coming weeks, shorter-term risks are for more of a corrective pullback to allow for the market to establish a fresh higher low. As such, we see risks for weakness over the coming sessions towards the 0.9300-0.9500 area before the market looks to reassert its bullish momentum and broader uptrend.

--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

To contact Joel Kruger, email jskruger@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKruger

To be added to Joel Kruger’s distribution list, send an email with subject line “Distribution List” to jskruger@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES