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Price & Time: Why $1285 Is So Important For Gold

Price & Time: Why $1285 Is So Important For Gold

2014-03-31 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • Important turn window coming up for Gold
  • EUR/USD rebounds off minor retracement level
  • AUD/USD turns lower during “Gann Death Zone”

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them HERE.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_MAR_31_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Why $1285 Is So Important For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded at its lowest level in a month on Friday before rebounding off the 78.6% retracement of the late Feb/early March advance near 1.3700
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while below 1.3875
  • The 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3730 remains a critical downside pivot with a daily close below needed to confirm that a more important leg lower is unfolding
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen around the end of the week
  • A move back over the the high of last week at 1.3875 would turn us positive on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: We like the short side while below 1.3875.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3705

*1.3730

1.3795

1.3830

*1.3875

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_MAR_31_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Why $1285 Is So Important For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD traded at its highest level since late November last week, but failed several times to surpass the 6th square root relationship of the year’s low at .9260 on a closing basis
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the Aussie while above .9160
  • A close over .9260 is required to signal that the uptrend is resuming
  • A Gann cycle turn window late last week suggests a top of some importance could be in place
  • A move under .9160 will turn us negative on the exchange rate

AUD/USD Strategy: We like the long side while above .9160.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

.9100

*.9160

.9225

*.9260

.9295

Focus Chart of the Day: XAU/USD

PT_MAR_31_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Why $1285 Is So Important For Gold

Gold has lost over $100 an ounce since topping out right on the March 17th cyclical turn window. On Friday the metal tested important support at the 50% retracement of the December to March range at 1285. April 4th through the 9th looks like the next turn window of importance as a couple of important relationships related to the 2011 high and the 2013 low will be converging during this period. Continued weakness in XAU/USD below 1285 in the days ahead would likely set up a low of importance heading into next week, while a recovery from this level over the next week would favor a secondary high.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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