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US Dollar Bounce Meets Resistance, SPX 500 Pullback Hinted Ahead

US Dollar Bounce Meets Resistance, SPX 500 Pullback Hinted Ahead

2014-07-08 05:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Meets Resistance After Setting Triple Bottom
  • S&P 500 Chart Setup Reveals Pullback Warning Signs
  • Crude Oil Slumps to One-Month Low, Gold Vulnerable

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices began a swift recovery as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern at double bottom support set from October 2013. Buyers are testing resistance at 10431, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 10452. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 10405 opens the door for a test of the 14.6% retracement at 10389.

US Dollar Bounce Meets Resistance, SPX 500 Pullback Hinted Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern at the top of a rising channel set from mid-April, hinting a move lower may be ahead. A break below rising trend line support at 1975.30 initially exposes the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1960.10. Near-term resistance is at 1985.90, the July 3 high, followed by the channel top at 1995.10.

US Dollar Bounce Meets Resistance, SPX 500 Pullback Hinted Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling above support at 1311.47, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. This barrier is reinforced by a rising trend line set from early June. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum, hinting a turn lower may be ahead. A break downward on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 1297.85. Near-term resistance is at 1333.47, the July 1 high.

US Dollar Bounce Meets Resistance, SPX 500 Pullback Hinted Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at 103.19, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, having extended downward after taking out a rising trend line set from the May 1 low. A further push lower sees the next level of support at 102.13, the 61.8% level. Alternatively, a reversal above the 38.2% Fib at 104.24 aims for the 23.6% expansion at 105.54.

US Dollar Bounce Meets Resistance, SPX 500 Pullback Hinted Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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