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US Dollar Looks Vulnerable as S&P 500 Probes Toward Recovery

US Dollar Looks Vulnerable as S&P 500 Probes Toward Recovery

2011-09-26 12:14:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYThe safe-haven US Dollar may find itself on the defensive as the S&P 500 probes higher to retrace some of its recent losses before the larger down trend resumes anew.

S&P 500 – Prices found appear to have found a near-term bottom at 1127.42 – the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level – and are now probing above support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a broken Flag chart formation. A close above this level exposes the 23.6% Fib at 1167.03. Alternatively, renewed downside momentum through immediate support targets the 50% extension at 1095.40.

US_Dollar_Looks_Vulnerable_as_SP_500_Probes_Toward_Recovery_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Looks Vulnerable as S&P 500 Probes Toward Recovery

CRUDE OIL Prices are stalling above support at $78.03, the 50%Fibonacci extension level, with a Doji candlestick pointing to indecision and hinting a corrective move higher may be ahead. A break above the 38.2% Fib at $80.97 exposes the 23.6% level at $84.61. Alternatively, renewed selling targets the 61.8% boundary at $75.09.

US_Dollar_Looks_Vulnerable_as_SP_500_Probes_Toward_Recovery_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Looks Vulnerable as S&P 500 Probes Toward Recovery

GOLD Prices continue to accelerate lower, with the bears probing through support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($1643.83). A daily close below this juncture clears the way for a more meaningful assault on the 76.4% Fib ($1580.47) after prices briefly spiked below the level today. Initial resistance lines up at $1695.05, the 50% retracement level.

US_Dollar_Looks_Vulnerable_as_SP_500_Probes_Toward_Recovery_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Looks Vulnerable as S&P 500 Probes Toward Recovery

US DOLLAR Prices put in a bearish Hanging Man candlestick below resistance at 9985, the 76.4% Fibonacci extension resistance, reinforcing oversold RSI studies to hint that a pullback may be ahead before larger up trend resumes. Initial support lines up at 9,923 – the 61.8% extension level – with a break below eyeing the bottom of a rising channel carved out since the swing low in late August. Alternatively, a break higher exposes the measured target implied by the Aug 30 – Sep 14 rally and subsequent Sep 15 correction at 10,078.

US_Dollar_Looks_Vulnerable_as_SP_500_Probes_Toward_Recovery_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Looks Vulnerable as S&P 500 Probes Toward Recovery

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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