We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long USD/JPY for the first time since Nov 05, 2019 04:00 GMT when USD/JPY traded near 109.14. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to USD/JPY weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/AcUT2SHO20
  • Spot FX Update: $EUR 1.1001 $JPY 108.8315 $GBP 1.2842 $CAD 1.3243 $CHF 0.9896
  • #Euro Price Outlook: #EURUSD Drops into Trend Support– Trade Levels - https://t.co/3zSaEEYhCz https://t.co/dv8oOoCXZt
  • US Treasury Yields Update: 2-Year: 1.640% 3-Year: 1.654% 5-Year: 1.693% 7-Year: 1.800% 10-Year: 1.886% 30-Year: 2.366% $TNX
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.63%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 84.83%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Wu2NXOJMKy
  • #Dow Jones: Giving the trend the benefit of the doubt, allowing for a small congestion pattern to develop may reward traders with a platform from which another leg higher can develop. Get your technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/zMaDTwizgp https://t.co/h2afPQplxK
  • Commodities Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.91% Oil - US Crude: 0.83% Gold: 0.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ZBtjTRQ9ai
  • Fed Chair Powell: - Shutting down shale would not be good for US economy #OOTT
  • RT @economics: Total U.S. household debt rose $92 billion, or 0.7%, to $13.95 trillion in the third quarter — that's the 21st straight quar…
  • Trump says auto tariff decision is coming fairly soon $SPX
US Dollar Index Eases Ahead of GDP Report- Channel Holds

US Dollar Index Eases Ahead of GDP Report- Channel Holds

2011-05-25 21:35:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:
US_Dollar_Index_Eases_Ahead_of_GDP_Report-_Channel_Holds_body_Picture_2.png, US Dollar Index Eases Ahead of GDP Report- Channel HoldsUS_Dollar_Index_Eases_Ahead_of_GDP_Report-_Channel_Holds_body_Picture_3.png, US Dollar Index Eases Ahead of GDP Report- Channel Holds

The greenback was modestly lower at the close of US trade today, with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar index closing the session lower by a mere 0.02%. A bounce back in equities saw early losses pared with the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ closing higher by 0.31%, 0.32% and 0.55% respectively. The dollar remains vulnerable ahead of key GDP data tomorrow that is expected to show the world’s largest economy grew at a pace of 2.2% in the first quarter of 2011. The ascending channel that has held the index remains intact, noting interim support at 9700 followed by the lower bound trendline at 9660 and just above the 23.6% Fib retracement at 9610.

US_Dollar_Index_Eases_Ahead_of_GDP_Report-_Channel_Holds_body_Picture_4.png, US Dollar Index Eases Ahead of GDP Report- Channel Holds

A daily chart sees topside resistance holding at 9740 backed by the 76.4% Fib extension (Ghosted) taken from the 2009 and 2010 crests around 9815, and 9950. With risk sentiment remaining fragile, the dollar will be subject to shifts in appetite as European officials continue to up there rhetoric with regards to Greece’s financial woes. And with liquidity expected to taper off ahead of the holiday weekend, moves in the dollar index may be exaggerated. Accordingly, we warn of the possibility of false breaks of the month long ascending channel formation.

US_Dollar_Index_Eases_Ahead_of_GDP_Report-_Channel_Holds_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Index Eases Ahead of GDP Report- Channel Holds

Gains versus the aussie and the euro were tempered by strength in the sterling which surged overnight on a better than expected print on 1Q exports and an OECD report that suggested a move on interest rates was forthcoming. Accordingly, the pound was the strongest of the component currencies, advancing 0.60% against the dollar for a 113.24% move of its average true range.

Event risk for the week peaks tomorrow with the 1Q annualized GDP print at 8:30am ET. Consensus estimates call for a read of 2.2%, up from a previous print of 1.8%. Personal consumption figures are also expected to print slightly higher at 2.8%, while core consumption and the GDP index are seen unchanged at 1.5% and 1.9% respectively. Weekly jobless claims follow with the figure expected to ease to 400K from the previous read of 409K. With the dollar index trading just above trendline support, a weak print on the day’s calendar risks a break of the ascending channel, and could see the greenback scale back recent gains.

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

12:30

HIGH

Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q S)

2.2%

1.8%

12:30

MEDIUM

Personal Consumption (1Q S)

2.8%

2.7%

12:30

MEDIUM

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q S)

1.5%

1.5%

12:30

LOW

Gross Domestic Product Price Index (1Q S)

1.9%

1.9%

12:30

LOW

Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 21)

400K

409K

12:30

LOW

Continuing Claims (MAY 14)

3700K

3711K

Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact the author of this report or to subscribe to his daily analysis please sends inquiries to: mboutros@dailyfx.com

You can also follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.