News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 94.25%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 77.17%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Heads Up:🇿🇦 Balance of Trade (OCT) due at 12:00 GMT (15min) Previous: ZAR33.51B
  • Commodities Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.57% Gold: -0.85% Silver: -1.92% View the performance of all markets via
  • Forex Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.31% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.28% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.18% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.10% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 BCB Focus Market Readout due at 11:30 GMT (15min)
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.20% FTSE 100: 0.11% France 40: -0.39% US 500: -0.45% Wall Street: -0.60% View the performance of all markets via
  • Dividend investing is the practice of investing in dividend-paying stocks. Why should you invest in dividend stocks? Find out:
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB President Lagarde Speech due at 10:30 GMT (15min)
  • 🇮🇹 Inflation Rate YoY Prel (NOV) Actual: -0.2% Previous: -0.3%
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Inflation Rate YoY Prel (NOV) due at 10:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -0.3%
USD Benefits From Mixed QE Views, AUD Looks Lower Ahead Of RBA

USD Benefits From Mixed QE Views, AUD Looks Lower Ahead Of RBA

2012-09-17 15:55:00
David Song, Strategist





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






USD_Benefits_From_Mixed_QE_Views_AUD_Looks_Lower_Ahead_Of_RBA_body_ScreenShot041.png, USD Benefits From Mixed QE Views, AUD Looks Lower Ahead Of RBA

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains 0.23 percent higher from the open after moving 74 percent of its average true range, and the reserve currency may continue to retrace the selloff from the previous week as it breaks the downward trend from earlier this month. In turn, we should see a short-term correction take shape over the coming days, but we will keep a close eye on the 30-minute relative strength index as it approaches overbought territory. Although risk trends continue to dictate price action across the currency market, we have a slew of Fed hawkish scheduled to speak this week, and central bank officials may show a mixed attitude towards the new asset purchase program as the world’s largest economy faces a limited risk for a double-dip recession.

USD_Benefits_From_Mixed_QE_Views_AUD_Looks_Lower_Ahead_Of_RBA_body_ScreenShot042.png, USD Benefits From Mixed QE Views, AUD Looks Lower Ahead Of RBA

Indeed, FOMC voting member Jeffrey Lacker, who dissented against the latest decision, argued that the expansion in the central bank balance sheet will have a ‘greater effect on inflation and a minimal impact on jobs’ as monetary policy remains a blunt instrument, and endorsed a wait-and-see approach as the new initiatives makes the exit strategy ‘riskier.’ In light of the recent remarks by Mr. Lacker, we may see a growing rift within the central bank, and we may see a growing number of Fed officials talk down speculation for additional monetary support as the economic recovery is expected to gradually gather pace going forward. As the USDOLLAR holds above the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement around the 9,710 figure, the rebound from 9,740 may pick up in the coming days, but we would like to see the relative strength index break the downward trend carried over from the end of May to see a larger advance in the index. As a result, former support around the 61.8 percent Fib (9,949) may now serve as resistance, and the dollar may face additional headwinds over the near-term as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke keeps the door open to expand the balance sheet further.

USD_Benefits_From_Mixed_QE_Views_AUD_Looks_Lower_Ahead_Of_RBA_body_ScreenShot043.png, USD Benefits From Mixed QE Views, AUD Looks Lower Ahead Of RBA

The greenback strengthened against three of the four counterparts, led by a 0.51 percent decline in the Australian dollar, and the high-yielding currency may weaken further over the next 24-hours of trading should the Reserve Bank of Australia show a greater willingness to ease monetary policy further. Indeed, the RBA Minutes may highlight a weakening outlook for the $1T economy as China – Australia’s largest trading partner – faces a greater risk for a ‘hard landing,’ and the central bank may sound increasingly cautious this time around as Governor Glenn Stevens sees the resource boom coming to an end over the next 12 to 24 months. In turn, market participants are pricing a 45 percent chance for a 25bp rate cut at the October 2 meeting, but see the cash rate falling by nearly 75bp over the next 12-months according to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps. As the AUDUSD maintains the downward trend from 2011, with the RSI holding below resistance (67), we will maintain our bearish forecast for the aussie, and the pair may face a large selloff as it appears to be carving out a double-top around the 1.0600 figure.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFX Forums

Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.