There are a few, high-profile and high-potential themes meeting critical events or deadlines over the coming week. With events like the Fed and ECB rate decision as well as time tables for a UK election and US-China trade war escalation, traders should monitor key levels and the economic docket.
Though there are a range of high-level economic releases on tap, the standouts for potential impact and reach are hard to miss. At the top of the traditional list is the FOMC rate decision which represents the last policy evaluation for the US central bank before the year’s end and an overdue change in anticipation for no change after three consecutive meetings that have resulted in 25-basis point rate cuts. The European Central Bank (ECB) is similarly expected to hold its bearings, but the rift within the group over the extreme policy efforts is drawing investor concern.
If you are looking for sheer volatility, the UK general election Thursday evening should be a top concern. While the world is watching this event more for the implications for subsequent Brexit negotiations, the Sterling’s response to mere polls leading up to the event clearly signals this is a candidate for severe volatility. Another open risk is held in the planned escalation of tariffs by the United States on China’s imports on December 15th if there is no Phase One deal signed off. This is set for a Sunday deadline, but don’t underestimate the influence of headlines and sheer anticipation.
Below, are the fundamental and technical forecasts for some of the key global currencies and assets over the coming week.
US Dollar Technical Forecast: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF
The US Dollar put in a strong move on Friday after NFP; but is this just a blip in the bearish backdrop?
US Dollar Outlook Bullish Ahead of FOMC, Retail Sales, CPI
The US Dollar may rise if the FOMC re-affirms its data-dependent approach and cools 2020 rate cut bets. US retail sales and CPI data may also give the Fed impetus to hold rates.
GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD Outlook as UK Election Looms
High British Pound volatility is expected ahead of the UK General Election. What does technical analysis have to say about the outlook for GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GPB/JPY and GBP/CAD?
Sterling (GBP) Weekly Forecast: British Pound Driving Higher into General Election Week
The latest UK General Election opinion polls continue to show the Conservative Party holding a strong lead over Labour and point to Boris Johnson winning a working majority in Parliament.
Australian Dollar Faces Global Risks: US-China Trade, UK Vote, Fed
The Australian Dollar was focused on its home country in the past week, but that is likely to change sharply in the days ahead with major global risk events coming up.
Australian Dollar Forecast Has a Systemic Break But How Far Out Is It?
The Australian Dollar continues to track out broad but active ranges among most of its crosses. This restraint can extend further, but eventually, the most restrictive medium-term activity in 17 years will necessitate a serious break
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Recovery Fails on Strong NFP- GLD Levels
Gold closed lower after paring early-week gains post-NFP on Friday. But will price finally break support? These are levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart.
Oil Price Outlook Hinges on US Trade Policy Following OPEC Meeting
The price of oil extends the advance from the October low as OPEC and its allies pledge to take additional steps to balance the energy market.
Dow Jones & FTSE 100 Technical Forecast for the Week Ahead
Dow Jones stages impressive recovery on firm NFP report. FTSE 100 eyes UK general election
Nasdaq 100, DAX 30, CAC 40 Forecasts Look to the Fed and Trade Wars
After a brief stint of volatility, the S&P 500, DAX 30 and CAC 40 rounded out last week with a strong showing, but impending trade deadlines threaten to derail risk appetite.
