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Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Trade Wars, Brexit and Italy Risks Advance as Bulls Hope for Holiday Respite

Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Trade Wars, Brexit and Italy Risks Advance as Bulls Hope for Holiday Respite

Peter Hanks, Daniel Dubrovsky, David Cottle, David Song, Ilya Spivak, Justin McQueen, Nick Cawley, Renee Mu,


The week ahead will test the mettle of holiday trading conditions. The US Thanksgiving holiday is a well-known curb on turnover in global markets which naturally breaks up speculative momentum. However, the abundance of systemic thematic threats (trade wars, Brexit, Italy’s budget) and 2018’s predilection for volatility could make this an unnerving holiday.

Oil Forecast – Crude Oil at Risk as OPEC Supply Cut Bets Undermined by Russia, US

Crude oil prices confirmed longest losing streak since at least 1984. Renewed OPEC supply cut bets may be undermined as Russia seems off the table while the US continues pumping oil.

Australian Dollar Forecast –Australian Dollar Can Hang On Again, But Downward Bias Remains

The Australian Dollar remains in unfamiliar territory just above the long downtrend that marked much of this year. What’s more it may well stay there this week.

British Pound Forecast – Brexit Chaos Leaves Sterling Still Vulnerable to Whiplash Moves

Trading Sterling (GBP) is becoming increasingly difficult and dangerous as constant Brexit headlines and UK political upheaval combine to create a toxic cocktail.

US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Aims Higher on European Turmoil, Fed Outlook Rethink

The US Dollar may find fresh strength next week as political tumult in Europe buoys haven demand while markets rethink a dovish shift in Fed rate hike bets.

Gold Forecast – Gold Price Could Drive Higher After Dovish Remarks from Fed Officials

The fundamental outlook for gold has remained mixed in recent weeks but that could change given a slew of dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Chinese Yuan Forecast – Yuan May Retrace Amid Mixed Fundamentals, Resumed US-China Talks

The Chinese economy had uneven developments, bringing mixed impact to the Yuan; at the same time, the US-China trade war and PBOC’s guidance will continue to weigh on the Yuan.

Euro Forecast – EUR/USD Rate Rebound Vulnerable to Dovish ECB Account

The ECB’s account of the October meeting may undermine the recent advance in EUR/USD as the Governing Council remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.

Equities Forecast – Global Markets Braced for Brexit Chaos and Italian Showdown

The political backdrop looks bleak for the UK as PM May struggles to bring her party together to support her Brexit plans. Italy yet again defy the European Commission and stick to its big spending budget plan

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.