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Gold to Rise on Safe-Haven Demand, Fed Stimulus Expectations

Gold to Rise on Safe-Haven Demand, Fed Stimulus Expectations

2011-09-03 03:29:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Gold_to_Rise_on_Safe-Haven_Demand_Fed_Stimulus_Expectations_body_Picture_5.png, Gold to Rise on Safe-Haven Demand, Fed Stimulus Expectations

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bullish

Gold is positioned to rise in the week ahead as jittery financial markets continue to fret about the pace of economic growth, driving safe haven demand for the yellow metal, while building expectations of another round of Federal Reserve stimulus compound upward pressure as investors look for alternative stores of value. A generous dose of top-tier economic data is likely to reinforce this trajectory.

Friday’s disappointing US Employment report left the outlook for overall risk appetite broadly uncertain. Traders’ initial reaction was to sell growth-geared assets across the spectrum. However, there is a good chance that panic will turn into growing confidence in the likelihood of a Fed action to bolster growth after the news has had time to digest over the weekend. The decision will be made against the backdrop of an economic calendar that is peppered with high-profile news releases that could prove critical on their own in shaping risk appetite.

Revised second-quarter GDP readings from Japan and the Euro Zone are expected to add to the pile of evidence pointing to increasingly anemic performance across the world’s leading growth engines. Meanwhile, a packed docket of monetary policy announcements (five in total) is likely to spur a re-pricing of interest rate expectations toward a dovish outlook for the developed economies at large, a trend already underway as the recovery shows increasingly apparent signs of exhaustion. China’s inflation report will also be closely watched for a reading on the pace of future policy-induced slowdown in the world’s number-two economy.

While this leaves a sense of ambiguity about the direction sentiment trends, gold seems positioned to benefit regardless. Indeed, if a continuation of Friday’s price action unleashes risk aversion, gold stands to benefit as safe haven, mirroring the trading patterns noted at least since the beginning of August. However, if confidence rebounds amid hopes that Ben Bernanke and company will once again ride to the rescue of financial markets, concerns about further dilution of the money supply will reinvigorate demand for gold as a tangible alternative store of value.

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