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Euro May Fall if ECB ABS Purchase Results Reveal Timid Effort

Euro May Fall if ECB ABS Purchase Results Reveal Timid Effort

2014-12-08 06:37:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro May Fall if Timid ABS Purchase Effort Fuels “Sovereign QE” Outlook
  • NZ Dollar Falls Before RBNZ Rate Decision, Aussie Down on Chinese Data
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The European Central Bank will be in the spotlight in European trading hours as it announces the size of last week’s covered bond and ABS purchases. The central bank has purchased €17.8 billion in covered bonds since the effort began in late October at a pace of about €2.7 billion per week, an effort that has been unable to significantly ramp up balance sheet expansion.

Today’s announcement will mark the first round of reporting on ABS purchases and traders are likely to look to the outcome as a pace-setter. Repayments of past LTRO efforts have averaged about €6 billion per week since October, explaining why covered bond-buying has been unable to deliver a potent stimulative push. If ABS uptake is too small to make a meaningful difference in this calculus, firming bets on a future move to “sovereign QE” may weigh on the Euro.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.8 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The selloff tracked a drop in the 3-month bank bill yield, pointing to fading rate hike expectations ahead of this week’s RBNZ policy announcement as the likely catalyst behind the selloff.

The Australian Dollar likewise fell following a disappointing set of Chinese trade figures that showed exports grew just 4.7 percent year-on-year in November. The reading fell short of expectations calling for a 8 percent gain and marked the smallest increase in seven months. The Aussie lost as much as 0.4 percent against the majors.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Mfg Activity Volume (QoQ) (3Q)

0.4%

-

-0.6%

21:45

NZD

Mfg Activity (QoQ) (3Q)

-1.2%

-

-2.3%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (OCT)

833.4B

370.1B

963.0B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (OCT)

947.0B

455.0B

414.4B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (OCT)

-766.6B

-569.6B

-714.5B

23:50

JPY

GDP (QoQ) (3Q F)

-0.5%

-0.1%

-0.4%

23:50

JPY

GDP Annualized (3Q F)

-1.9%

-0.5%

-1.6%

23:50

JPY

Nominal GDP (QoQ) (3Q F)

-0.9%

-0.5%

-0.8%

23:50

JPY

GDP Deflator (YoY) (3Q F)

2.1%

-

2.1%

23:50

JPY

GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (3Q F)

-0.4%

0.9%

-0.2%

23:50

JPY

GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (3Q F)

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl. Trusts (YoY) (NOV)

2.7%

-

2.3%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex. Trusts (NOV)

2.8%

2.4%

2.4%

0:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (NOV)

0.7%

-

0.2%

2:07

CNY

Trade Balance ($) (NOV)

54.47B

43.95B

45.41B

2:07

CNY

Exports (YoY) (NOV)

4.7%

8.0%

11.6%

2:07

CNY

Imports (YoY) (NOV)

-6.7%

3.8%

4.6%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (NOV)

-14.61%

-

-16.57%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (NOV)

44.0

47.0

46.6

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (NOV)

41.5

45.8

44.0

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT)

0.4%

1.4%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT)

0.9%

-0.1%

Medium

8:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (NOV)

-0.1%

0.0%

Medium

8:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

-0.1%

0.0%

Medium

8:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (NOV)

-

0.0%

Low

8:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (NOV)

-

0.1%

Low

8:15

CHF

Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (OCT)

-

0.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

Lloyds Employment Confidence (NOV)

-

0

Low

9:30

EUR

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (DEC)

-9.0

-11.9

Low

14:45

EUR

ECB Covered Bond, ABS Purchases

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2072

1.2194

1.2239

1.2316

1.2361

1.2438

1.2560

GBPUSD

1.5363

1.5489

1.5534

1.5615

1.5660

1.5741

1.5867

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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