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Euro at Risk on Italian Bond Sale, Pound Sold Before GDP Data

Euro at Risk on Italian Bond Sale, Pound Sold Before GDP Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The Euro may fall as borrowing costs rise at an Italian bond auction while the British Pound is under pressure before the release of revised fourth-quarter GDP data.

Talking Points

  • Euro to Fall on Strong Pickup in Italian Borrowing Costs at Bond Auction
  • British Pound Under Pressure Before Revised Fourth-Quarter GDP Data
  • Japanese Yen Resumes Rebound as Nikkei Sinks, Boosting Haven Demand

Italy remains in focus as Rome prepares to sell €6.5 billion in 5- and 10-year bonds. Traders will keep a close eye on average yield and bid-to-cover readings, with a marked pickup in borrowing costs and/or a drop in demand likely to be seen as signs of rising sovereign risk amid political uncertainty in the wake of the weekend’s election. Needless to say, such an outcome bodes ill for the Euro.

The British Pound underperformed overnight – losing as much as 0.4 percent – as markets awaited revised fourth-quarter UK GDP figures. Expectations call for confirmation of the initially estimated 0.3 contraction. A downgrade may amplify selling pressure as traders build bets on further expansion of BOE stimulus. We continue to hold short GBPUSD.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen edged higher, adding as much as 0.5 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appeared to reflect regional safe-haven demand as the Nikkei benchmark stock index sank for a second day, sliding 1.3 percent.

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Net Migration s.a. (JAN)

350

-

-80 (R-)

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NZ$) (JAN)

-

125M

486M

21:45

NZD

Exports (NZ$) (JAN)

3.35B

3.60B

4.10B

21:45

NZD

Imports (NZ$) (JAN)

3.65B

3.50B

3.57B

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) (JAN)

-1299M

-897M

-1156M

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (MoM) (JAN)

2.3%

0.9%

0.0%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (JAN)

-1.1%

-1.5%

0.3%

23:50

JPY

Large Retailers' Sales (JAN)

-3.5%

-0.8%

0.1%

0:30

AUD

Construction Work Done (4Q)

-0.1%

1.5%

1.9%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

0.5%

-0.5%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

-0.4%

0.3%

Low

7:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (JNA)

-

1.34

Medium

7:00

EUR

German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (MAR)

5.9

5.8

Medium

8:00

CHF

KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (FEB)

1.00

1.05

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

3.2%

3.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P)

-0.3%

-0.3%

High

9:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q P)

0.0%

0.0%

High

9:30

GBP

Private Consumption (4Q P)

-0.1%

0.4%

Low

9:30

GBP

Government Spending (4Q P)

0.1%

0.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (4Q P)

0.2%

-0.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

Exports (4Q P)

-0.8%

1.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

Imports (4Q P)

0.0%

-0.4%

Low

9:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (QoQ) (4Q P)

-

3.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (YoY) (4Q P)

-

5.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (DEC)

0.0%

0.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (DEC)

0.1%

0.6%

Low

10:00

EUR

Italy to Sell €6.5B in 5yr and 10yr Bonds

-

-

High

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (FEB)

89.9

89.2

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (FEB)

-1.02

-1.09

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (FEB)

-13.1

-13.9

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (FEB F)

-23.6

-23.6

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Services Confidence (FEB)

-8.8

-8.8

Low

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3012

1.3171

GBPUSD

1.5046

1.5191

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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