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Dollar: Looking Beyond the Flash of NFPs Volatility

Dollar: Looking Beyond the Flash of NFPs Volatility

2015-01-09 05:29:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Dollar: Looking Beyond the Flash of NFPs Volatility
  • Euro Traders Confident in Stimulus, Not Concerned Enough About Greece
  • British Pound Facing CPI Next Week After a Long Tumble on Rate Forecasts

Dollar: Looking Beyond the Flash of NFPs Volatility

A market that is already prone to volatility and a top market-moving piece of event risk make for a dangerous combination. But, that is what we are heading into with Friday’s session. With the USDollar (Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index) nudging out a fresh six-year high and the S&P 500 extending its frenzied recovery, the stage is set for the December nonfarm payrolls. The notorious labor report is due at 13:30 GMT and the financial headlines it will generate will no doubt be dramatic. However, the actual market impact this data leverages can be significantly skewed by the fundamental currents that have stirred these past months.

First, it is important to distinguish the two most productive themes this data may tap: Fed rate forecasts (particularly important for the Dollar) and the balance in risk trends. From a monetary policy perspective, it may be difficult to muster serious swings in the majors on the data. Even if both the surface level statistics (NFPs and unemployment) and the more qualitative measures (wage growth and participation rate) weaken, it is working against a well-established trend and sentiment. The improvement in labor conditions has been underway for some years. A downtick in the data is unlikely to project a full-scale economic course change. Furthermore, the rate forecast that the Dollar has enjoyed is buffered. While Economists and FOMC consensus have maintained a ‘mid-2015’ time frame for the first hike, Fed Fund futures and other instruments show the market is trading at a discount to that view. In other words, it’s difficult to disappoint. Also, a nudge in the timing of the first rate hike will not materially downgrade the appeal of a currency whose counterparts (ECB, BoJ) are exceptionally dovish.

Despite the Greenback’s cushion should a disappointing read cross the wires, the bullish response to a robust outcome will likely also be subdued. After a six month rally that has placed the Dollar at the most hawkish extreme of the policy extreme (when compared to its counterparts), there is not a large well of untapped premium for such an outcome. In a similar fashion, an impressive payrolls will likely inspire only so much optimism for ‘risk’ benchmarks like the S&P 500. Just off record highs on the back of a six-year bull trend, there are limitations to the awe a month of jobs data can inspire. That said, a disappointment can wrench a far greater response from equities than it can the Dollar. With volatility building and a global economic slowdown underway, tearing down this trend is a matter of time.

Euro Traders Confidentin Stimulus, Not Concerned Enough About Greece

ECB President Mario Draghi sent a letter to an EU lawmaker Thursday; and in it, the central banker reiterated the group’s readiness to employ a full QE program. He stated that should the low inflation conditions persist “the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments.” With this week’s CPI dropping into negative territory for the first time since the Great Recession, traders have good reason to suspect the ECB will up its game to meet its goal of boosting the balance sheet by €1 trillion. Where stimulus is well accounted for, the risk that Greece poses seems to be treated underestimated. With anti-austerity Syriza still leading the polls, government and central bank officials have repeatedly said funding access depends on keeping good standing with the EU’s rescue guidelines.

British Pound Facing CPI Next Week After a Long Tumble on Rate Forecasts

Short Sterling futures now price the first full BoE rate hike out to December. That reflects a massive drop in rate expectations over the past six months, and the Pound has certainly suffered for it. This past session, the BoE announced no changes to policy, so we await the more detailed minutes - promised as a measure of transparency - in two weeks. Next week, we will be held over by the December inflation data.

Yen Crosses More Market Moving on NFPs than the Dollar?

With a well-established US rate forecast and a significant disparity with its major counterparts on a more dovish footing, the Dollar will likely find a muted response to NFPs. Yet, given the precarious positioning of ‘risk’ with volatility on the rise, Yen crosses may compensate the FX market with big moves. In particular, speculative appetite is at risk of sharp declines and these expensive carry trades are at the top of the list.

Oil: Speculative Interest Swell in ETFs, Not Apparent In Market Price

According to a Bloomberg report, the four largest oil ETPs in the US recorded a massive $1.23 billion inflow of funds in December – the biggest investment in four-and-a-half years. Yet, despite that show of faith, crude prices have offered little sign of recovery. While the more than 50 percent drop in the past seven months has priced in much; global economic winds, risk appetite and supply commitments can push it further.

Emerging Markets, Rubble Rally Ahead of Fed

Heartened by the S&P 500 and developed world markets’ recovery, the Emerging Markets have fought to regain ground. The MSCI’s EEM jumped another 1.7 percent this past session (following a 2.2 percent rally) and most of the asset classes’ currencies gained against the Dollar – including the Ruble up 4.6 percent. Yet, confidence is a fleeting thing for one of the riskiest groupings and the NFPs loom.

Gold Volatility is Falling But Market Setting Up for Break

With the dramatic tumble from capital markets that started the year on ice, gold has seen its questionable haven status tempered before it could progress a meaningful bullish shift. Yet, with recent price action solidifying congestion, a short-term break may soon be at hand. With the NFPs ahead, we have a viable catalyst; but watch the Dollar’s response for guidance before risk trends.

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ECONOMIC DATA

GMT

Currency

Release

Survey

Previous

Comments

22:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Construction Index (DEC)

45.4

Has been declining since Sept 2014

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets (DEC)

$1269.1B

Unchanged in 2014

0:30

AUD

Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (NOV)

0.20%

0.40%

Has been expanding every month in 2014 except on March

1:30

CNY

Producer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

-3.20%

-2.70%

Both measures have been trending downward in 2014.

1:30

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

1.50%

1.40%

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (NOV P)

109.9

Both have been in a downward trend in 2014. Might have indicated a weak economy

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (NOV P)

104.5

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (DEC)

3.40%

3.20%

Has declined from the value from the beginning of 2014

7:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)

0.30%

0.20%

A volatile measure that has shifted from contraction to expansion in 2014

7:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (euros) (NOV)

20.5B

21.9B

Germany is an export based economy, this would help assess the strength of its economy

7:00

EUR

German Current Account (euros) (NOV)

23.0B

23.1B

8:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

-0.40%

0.00%

CPI growth has been growing anemically in 2014.

8:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

-0.20%

-0.10%

9:30

GBP

Total Trade Balance (NOV)

-£2000

-£2024

Trade deficit has been contracting in 2014.

9:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)

0.20%

-0.10%

Manufacturing production has been expanding every month in 2014 except on May.

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (NOV)

0.30%

-0.70%

9:30

GBP

Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (NOV)

1.20%

-2.20%

A volatile measure.

13:15

CAD

Housing Starts (DEC)

191.0K

195.6K

Has been expanding above 150K in 2014.

13:30

USD

Unemployment Rate (DEC)

5.70%

5.80%

Unemployment rate has been declining in 2014 as NFP payrolls have been showing that jobs are being produced at a strong pace. This improvement in the labor market will be considered by the Fed when deciding on rates.

13:30

USD

Change in Non-farm Payrolls (DEC)

240K

321K

13:30

USD

Change in Private Payrolls (DEC)

230K

314K

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (DEC)

0.20%

0.40%

Has been rising at a positive pace on a YoY basis in 2014.

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (DEC)

2.20%

2.10%

13:30

CAD

Unemployment Rate (DEC)

6.60%

6.60%

Unemployment rate has been falling in 2014. Any strength in the US economy would help Canada’s labor market.

13:30

CAD

Net Change in Employment (DEC)

10.0K

-10.7K

13:30

CAD

Full Time Employment Change (DEC)

5.7

15:00

USD

Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (NOV)

0.00%

0.20%

Both measures have been expanding for most of the months of 2014.

15:00

USD

Wholesale Inventories (NOV)

0.30%

0.40%

15:00

GBP

NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (DEC)

0.70%

Any strong measure might impact investors’ expectation of future BOE policy decisions.

GMT

Currency

Upcoming Events & Speeches

1:00

USD

Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy in Minneapolis

6:30

CHF

SNB Preliminary 2014 Result

18:20

USD

Fed's Lacker to Deliver Speech on 2015 Economic Outlook

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT

SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency

USD/MXN

USD/TRY

USD/ZAR

USD/HKD

USD/SGD

Currency

USD/SEK

USD/DKK

USD/NOK

Resist 2

15.5900

2.5000

12.7000

7.8165

1.3650

Resist 2

8.7400

6.8500

8.4735

Resist 1

15.0000

2.4000

11.8750

7.8075

1.3475

Resist 1

8.1375

6.3325

7.8360

Spot

14.8820

2.3268

11.7308

7.7545

1.3372

Spot

7.9351

6.2688

7.7560

Support 1

14.3800

2.1900

10.2500

7.7490

1.3200

Support 1

7.5200

5.9100

7.2945

Support 2

13.6800

2.0700

9.3700

7.7450

1.2000

Support 2

7.3285

5.7775

6.7280

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\CCY

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

USD/CAD

AUD/USD

NZD/USD

EUR/JPY

Gold

Res 3

1.1986

1.5261

120.52

1.0225

1.1933

0.8159

0.7844

143.03

1243.42

Res 2

1.1957

1.5229

120.17

1.0198

1.1907

0.8136

0.7820

142.62

1236.80

Res 1

1.1928

1.5198

119.83

1.0172

1.1881

0.8113

0.7796

142.22

1230.19

Spot

1.1870

1.5135

119.13

1.0119

1.1829

0.8066

0.7749

141.41

1216.95

Supp 1

1.1812

1.5072

118.43

1.0066

1.1777

0.8019

0.7702

140.60

1203.71

Supp 2

1.1783

1.5041

118.09

1.0040

1.1751

0.7996

0.7678

140.20

1197.10

Supp 3

1.1754

1.5009

117.74

1.0013

1.1725

0.7973

0.7654

139.79

1190.48

v

--- Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

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