Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Breakout at Risk into FOMC
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Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels
- Canadian Dollar updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
- USD/CAD testing confluence resistance zone ahead of FOMC
- Focus on close with respect to 1.3182/84 zone - constructive while above 1.3075
The Canadian Dollar is down more than 1.9% against the US Dollar since the January lows in USD/CAD with the recent price breakout now testing confluence resistance ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC interest rate decision. The immediate advance may be vulnerable near-term if price holds below this threshold on a daily close basis. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts heading into the Fed. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie trade setup and more.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily
Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that USD/CAD was in, “near-term consolidation just above uptrend support and the immediate focus is on a break of the weekly opening-range for guidance. From a technical standpoint, the setup remains constructive while within this formation, but we’ll respect a break of the 1.3024-1.3076 range.” A topside breach of last week saw price rally into a key Fibonacci confluence we’ve been tracking at 1.3182/84 – a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the November decline and the 100% extension of the late-December advance. Loonie is straddling this zone today. Watch the close – a hold below this threshold would leave the immediate advance vulnerable / risk for exhaustion heading into FOMC tomorrow.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min
Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action sees USD/CAD trading within the confines of an ascending channel formation extending off the monthly lows with the upper parallel further highlighting near-term resistance today just above 1.3182/84. Weekly open support rests at 1.3153 with a break below 1.3134 needed to shift the focus lower with such a scenario eyeing subsequent support objectives at 1.3102/09 and the highlighted trendline confluence near ~1.3075– look for a larger reaction there IF reached. A topside breach from here exposes resistance targets at 1.3247 and the December open at 1.3270.
Bottom line: USD/CAD is testing confluence resistance here and the immediate focus is on a the daily close with respect to 1.3182/84. From at trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion while below this threshold. That said- ultimately, the outlook remains constructive while within this formation with a breach needed to fuel the next leg higher in price. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -1.55 (39.19% of traders are long) – bullish reading
- Long positions are2.33% higher than yesterday and 33.62% lower from last week
- Short positions are19.80% higher than yesterday and 13.54% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Key US / Canada Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.