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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Bulls at Risk- Loonie Levels

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Bulls at Risk- Loonie Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels

The Canadian Dollar was weaker against the US Dollar this week with USD/CAD rallying 0.5% to trade at 1.3139 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The advance takes price into the first major hurdle at downtrend resistance and the immediate long-bias may be vulnerable while below this threshold. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie trade setup and more.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Weekly - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that USD/CAD had, “rebounded off the 100% extension this week and IF the decline off the 2017 highs was corrective, price should hold these lows.” Loonie held with the subsequent price reversal now testing confluence weekly resistance at 1.3140- a weekly close above this threshold would be needed to keep the long-bias viable.

A breach exposes weekly targets at the 75% parallel of the descending pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking off the 2019 highs (currently around ~1.3260s)backed by the 61.8% retracement of the May decline at 1.3330. Critical resistance / broader bearish invalidation stands with the 2019 high-week close at 1.3370.Look for initial support at the July low-week close at 1.3059 with a break below the yearly open / 100% extension at 1.2972/75 still needed to mark resumption.

Bottom line: The USD/CAD rebounded is now testing confluence downtrend resistance and we’re looking for a pivot here heading into next week. A close above 1.3140s would keep the focus higher into next week. That said, risk for near-term exhaustion while below this threshold (intraday allowance up to the 100% extension at 1.3185). From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -1.23 (44.90% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are1.65% higher than yesterday and 37.78% lower from last week
  • Short positions are5.74% lower than yesterday and 0.79% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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