- Technical trade setups we’re tracking across the USD Majors / Commodities this week
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US Dollar Exhaustion Ahead? Gold Prices Remain Vulnerable
Friday’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report sparked a pullback in the dollar, triggering a pullback in DXY off trend resistance. The focus into the start of the week is on possible topside exhaustion in the greenback with the majors trading into some clean setups into the open of trade this week- the levels are clear. We remain on the lookout for topside exhaustion in Gold as well with XAU/USD rallies vulnerable while below key resistance. In this webinar, we review the updated technical trade setups on DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY, Gold(XAU/USD), and Crude Oil.
Key Trade Levels in Focus
US Dollar – The US Dollar Index traded into near-term uptrend resistance on Friday before turning lower. Initial support 97.30 with bullish invalidation at 97.11. Near-term resistance 97.62/71 backed by 97.87 (key) – both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. Review my latest US Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term weekly DXY technical trade levels.
EUR/USD – Looking for basing in the Euro while above 1.1080 with a breach above 1.1145 needed to fuel another test of key resistance at 1.1187-1.1209. A break lower from here would risk 1.1042 and the 61.8% retracement of the September advance at 1.1017. Review my latest Euro Price Outlook for a closer look at then longer-term weekly EUR/USD technical trade levels.
USD/CAD – Price is trading just above key near-term support targets at 1.3024/28 & 1.3010- price would need to hold above this zone for trade to remain constructive. A breach above the weekly opening-range highs would shift the focus back towards 1.3102 and 1.3134/40. Weakness beyond last week’s low would expose key support back at 1.2971. Review my latest weekly Canadian Dollar Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.
Gold– Gold is sitting at near-term support here at 1547- initial resistance at the median-line near ~1567 with bearish invalidation steady at 1586. A break lower targets subsequent support objectives at 1535 and the yearly open / December 2011 low at 1520/22- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.
Crude Oil – Oil prices remain at risk while below 60.45 with price testing near-term support today at 58.30 – look for a reaction here with a break lower exposing pitchfork support near ~57.50s and the 61.8% retracement of the October rally at 56.57. Review my latest Weekly Crude Oil Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term WTI technical trade levels.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
Key Event Risk This Week
Economic Calendar - latest economic development and upcoming event risk
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex
