We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar tend to rise with stocks. They have recently fallen despite gains in the #SP500. What does this mean for $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD ahead? #AUD #NZD #RBA #RBNZ - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/01/17/AUDUSD-NZDUSD-Outlook-Looks-Past-Stocks-to-Rate-Cut-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/ddf2fV7Kyl
  • A few snippets from today's commentary. Check out the link below for the full story (via @DailyFX). https://t.co/I31tuq764r https://t.co/x0BaiOFA1P
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/e2YrN3dBrl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UL7hqSD2Ki
  • US Dollar Forecast: $USD Lacking Impetus Ahead of Consumer Sentiment #Forex traders shift focus away from US-China trade deal headlines - perhaps toward the monthly release of #ConsumerSentiment data for volatility and clues on the Greenback's next move https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2020/01/16/us-dollar-forecast-usd-lacking-impetus-ahead-of-consumer-sentiment.html
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kxcb9EtIWb
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.45% France 40: 0.26% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/I5YIsKQAog
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV), Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.0% Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
  • The $JPY has weakened as a bounce-back in risk appetite saps haven-asset demand. However, the old uptrend line still provides clear resistance. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX HERE:https://t.co/IMhgQ9jbF9 https://t.co/I7087olftk
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Reversal Approaches Technical Support

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Reversal Approaches Technical Support

2020-01-09 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:
  • EUR/USD reverses offcritical resistance range into yearly open at 1.12
  • Risk for further losses with near-term technical support in view
  • Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT

Euro has been on the defensive against the US Dollar since the start of the year with EUR/USD down nearly 0.5% this week after turning from a key resistance range. While further losses area likely, we’re looking for more significant weekly support just lower. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro trade setup and more.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Michael Boutros
New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Beginners Guide
Get My Guide

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Euro Weekly Price Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was approaching a critical barrier at 1.1187-1.1209 – a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 advance and the 61.8% retracement of the June 2019 decline. Price briefly registered a high at 1.1239 into the close of the year before reversing sharply with Euro now down more than 1.2% off the highs. Note that weekly RSI has continued to hold sub-60 since the 2018 highs in price and suggests the momentum profile still leans in favor of the bears for now.

Weekly support is eyed at the 1.44% parallel, currently around ~1.1050s, backed by the 61.8% retracement of the September rally at 1.1017. Broader bullish invalidation remains with the 2019 low-week reversal close at 1.0977. A topside breach / close above 1.1209 is needed to mark resumption with a such a scenario eyeing subsequent resistance objectives at 1.1282/98- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Euro has responded to key weekly resistance and the focus is on this pullback early in the month. IF this is corrective, losses should be limited to the 1.10-handle. From a trading standpoint, look for downside exhaustion on stretch towards the lower parallels for possible entries. I’ll publish an updated Euro Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.26 (55.84% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are21.82% higher than yesterday and 64.66% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 5.72% lower than yesterday and 23.99% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
EUR/USD MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 5% -11% -2%
Weekly -2% -2% -2%
Learn how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

---

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest quarterly EUR/USD Price Forecast
Get My Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.